Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Aneng Logistics (09956) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 11.7, indicating a potential upside of 44% from the closing price of HKD 8.10 as of September 2 [1] Company Performance - Aneng Logistics demonstrated robust growth in the first half of 2025, with total LTL freight volume reaching 6.82 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; revenue of CNY 5.625 billion, up 6.4%; and adjusted net profit of CNY 476 million, reflecting a 10.7% increase, with a stable gross margin of 15.6% [3] - The company is expected to achieve a freight volume of 14.15 million tons in 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year growth [4] - Aneng Logistics' net asset return (ROE) is projected to reach 30% in 2024, significantly higher than the industry average of 10%, driven by an asset turnover rate exceeding 200% [4] Industry Outlook - The LTL market in China is projected to reach CNY 1.7 trillion by 2024, characterized by a highly fragmented landscape where 90% of revenue is held by 200,000-300,000 small and local freight companies [3] - The express freight segment, a high-margin niche, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2024 to 2027, with its market share increasing from 9% to 11% [3] - The logistics industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with leading companies likely to capture market share through a siphoning effect [3] Competitive Advantages - Aneng Logistics is leveraging its industry leadership by optimizing its product structure, focusing on high-margin small and light goods, which have significantly higher prices and profit margins compared to bulk freight [4] - The company achieved a 25.2% year-on-year increase in total ticket volume, with mini ticket freight volume growing by 23.9% and small ticket LTL volume increasing by 14.0% in the first half of 2025 [4] - Aneng Logistics is positioned as a typical "value stock" with a stable dividend policy, expected to enhance its market share amid the exit of smaller players in the industry [5]