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中信证券:预计全年通胀温和回升 对债市影响或更多取决于是否有需求端政策增量
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-21 00:14
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that under the narrative of anti-involution policies, the inflation forecasting framework needs to consider both top-down and bottom-up logic. It predicts a steady upward trend in PPI year-on-year by 2026, while CPI is expected to fluctuate mainly due to various factors, including the impact of government subsidies on non-food items [1]. Group 1: Inflation Predictions - The inflation forecasting framework should integrate both top-down and bottom-up approaches [1] - By 2026, PPI is expected to show a steady upward trend year-on-year [1] - CPI is anticipated to fluctuate primarily due to the impact of government subsidy reductions on non-food items [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The analysis incorporates leading indicators such as deposit activation rates and real estate sales [1] - The overall inflation is expected to moderately rebound throughout the year [1] - The impact on the bond market will largely depend on whether there are incremental demand-side policy measures [1]