非银金融中报业绩对估值的催化

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非银金融行业周报:关注非银中报业绩对估值的催化-20250706
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-07-06 11:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The insurance sector showed a slight decline, with the Shenwan Insurance II Index down by 0.27%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.81 percentage points. However, the second quarter of 2025 is expected to see strong performance from certain insurance companies, leading to valuation boosts [4]. - The brokerage sector also experienced a decline, with the Shenwan Brokerage II Index down by 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.25 percentage points. Despite this, the brokerage sector has shown significant growth in stock trading volumes and IPOs, suggesting potential for recovery [4][19]. Market Review - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,982.20 with a weekly change of +1.5%. The non-bank index closed at 1,871.55, with a weekly change of -0.7%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported changes of -0.7%, -0.3%, and -2.7% respectively [7]. - As of July 4, 2025, the average daily stock trading volume was 14,416.07 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.83% [19][42]. Insurance Sector Highlights - The second quarter of 2025 is anticipated to show robust growth in new business value (NBV) for insurance companies, driven by a low base effect and strong performance in bancassurance [4][13]. - The long-term interest rates have decreased, which is expected to positively impact the insurance sector's performance [4]. Brokerage Sector Highlights - The brokerage sector has seen a significant increase in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume for the first half of 2025 reaching 13,915.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.83% [19]. - The report highlights that the valuation of the brokerage sector remains low, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.35, down 19.6% from the highest valuation level since September 2024 [4]. Investment Recommendations - For the insurance sector, the report recommends stocks such as New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance, and ZhongAn Online [4]. - In the brokerage sector, the report suggests focusing on leading firms with strong competitive positions, such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, as well as firms with significant international business capabilities like China Galaxy and CICC [4].