非银金融板块重估
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市场交投维持高位,板块后续业绩有望延续高增
Changjiang Securities· 2025-11-17 23:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector continues to see high trading activity, with expectations for sustained high growth in future performance, suggesting active allocation [2][4] - In the insurance sector, listed insurance companies reported significant growth in value, premiums, and profits in Q3, with a notable performance in the growth/technology-dominated equity market, challenging the traditional view of insurance investment as merely dividend-based [2][4] - The report indicates a potential for continued valuation recovery in the short term, supported by the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement [2][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Trading activity remains high, with daily average transaction volume at 20,438.27 billion, up 1.56% week-on-week, and a daily turnover rate of 2.09%, up 3.64 basis points [5][40] - The report recommends active allocation in the brokerage sector due to the expected recovery in profitability and stability in commission rates [4][40] Insurance Sector - The cumulative premium income for the insurance industry reached 52,146 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.76%, driven by a 10.19% increase in life insurance premiums [22][23] - The report highlights the significant growth in premium income for major insurers, with New China Insurance reporting a 17% increase in premium income for the period from January 1 to October 31, 2025 [6][27] - The insurance sector is expected to see a valuation recovery, supported by improved asset allocation towards bonds and equity [22][27] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.2% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 7.6%, although it ranks lower compared to the broader market [5][18] - The report notes a mixed performance in the non-bank sector, with the insurance sector up 2.6% while the brokerage sector saw a decline of 0.9% [18][20] Financing Activities - In October, equity financing increased to 501.42 billion, up 20.4% month-on-month, while bond financing decreased to 6.56 trillion, down 19.2% [50] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting scale due to new refinancing regulations, while bond underwriting will be influenced by interest rate changes [50] Asset Management - The report indicates a decline in new issuance of collective asset management products, with a total of 41.83 billion units issued in October, down 37.3% from the previous month [54] - The asset management sector is entering a recovery phase as the transition period for new regulations approaches its end [54]