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非银进入性价比配置区间
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-28 13:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - Recent market enthusiasm remains high, with Q3 brokerage performance expected to continue its high growth trend. It is essential to reassess policies and regulations, focusing on the balance of investment and financing mechanisms. The financing balance and proportion have also reached new highs, warranting close monitoring of leverage risks and regulatory dynamics related to derivatives. In the insurance sector, the overall trend supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, leading to a higher certainty of mid-to-long-term ROE improvement and accelerated valuation recovery. The overall cost-effectiveness of investment is gradually increasing [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.1% this week, with an excess return of -1.2% relative to the CSI 300. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 4.1%, with an excess return of -11.5% compared to the CSI 300 [5]. Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 23,131.93 billion yuan, down 8.13% week-on-week. The margin financing balance increased to 2.44 trillion yuan, up 1.74% [39][44]. Insurance Sector - In July 2025, the cumulative premium income reached 42,085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The life insurance sector saw a premium income of 31,153 billion yuan, up 7.34% year-on-year [22][23]. Recommendations - The report recommends stable dividend-paying stocks such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it suggests considering New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4].