| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-10-09 09:00——2025-10-10 15:00） | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度升高，万得全 A 估值领涨》2025-10-09 | 2 | |  | 行业专题研究：传播文化业《中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩集合品牌，产品与渠道双轮驱动》2025-10-102 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：机器人《Figure 03 展示家庭应用场景，为规模化生产做准备》2025-10-10 | 3 | |  | 行业深度研究：医药《小核酸，大时代，靶向治疗新纪元》2025-10-10 | 4 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：建筑工程业《建筑铜金等矿产价值重估，降息预期催化资源品涨价》2025-10-10 | 5 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：投资银行业与经纪业《25H1 小结：高增之下，酝酿变化》2025-10-10 | 6 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：半导体设备《自强，先进制程设备的突破是核心》2025-10-0 ...

上半年的高增更多是基数贡献，年化收益率 3.9%是近 3 年的新高、但较 19-21 年均 值 4.8%仍有距离。更重要的是模式变化从局部发散，头部券商走向全球配置、中小 券商从大类资产配置求变，以及权益投资从 OCI 走向 OCI+，期待更多变化！ 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.10 25H1 小结：高增之下，酝酿变化 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 券商自营业务跟踪系列之二 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 吴浩东(分析师) | 010-83939780 | wuhaodong@gtht.com | S0880524070001 | 本报告导读： [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《居民资金入市显迹，销售 费用降费落地》2025.09.13 投资银行业与经 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 政策推动行业高质量发展，Q3 券商业绩有望 持续高增 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期市场热度仍维持高位，Q3 券商业绩有望延续高增趋势，慢牛下中长期 ROE 中枢有望抬升；保险方面， 整体来看印证了存款搬家、增配权益和新单成本改善逻辑，中长期 ROE 改善确定性进一步提升，估值有望 加速修复，结合中长期拐点向上的判断，我们认为整体配置性价比正逐步提高。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 政策推动行业高质量发展， 2] Q3 券商业绩有望持 续高增 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 1）近期市场热度仍维持高位，Q3 券商业绩有望延续高增趋势，慢牛下中长期 ROE 中枢 ...

每经AI快讯，10月5日，港交所文件显示，阳光电源股份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，独家保荐 人为中金公司。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - Recent market enthusiasm remains high, with Q3 brokerage performance expected to continue its high growth trend. It is essential to reassess policies and regulations, focusing on the balance of investment and financing mechanisms. The financing balance and proportion have also reached new highs, warranting close monitoring of leverage risks and regulatory dynamics related to derivatives. In the insurance sector, the overall trend supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, leading to a higher certainty of mid-to-long-term ROE improvement and accelerated valuation recovery. The overall cost-effectiveness of investment is gradually increasing [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.1% this week, with an excess return of -1.2% relative to the CSI 300. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 4.1%, with an excess return of -11.5% compared to the CSI 300 [5]. Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 23,131.93 billion yuan, down 8.13% week-on-week. The margin financing balance increased to 2.44 trillion yuan, up 1.74% [39][44]. Insurance Sector - In July 2025, the cumulative premium income reached 42,085 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The life insurance sector saw a premium income of 31,153 billion yuan, up 7.34% year-on-year [22][23]. Recommendations - The report recommends stable dividend-paying stocks such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it suggests considering New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - Recent market activity remains high, with Q3 performance expected to continue the trend of significant growth, suggesting a focus on leading companies and high-performing stocks within the sector [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the report confirms the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and potential valuation recovery [2][4] - Recommendations include Jiangsu Jinzhong for stable profit growth and dividend rates, China Ping An for stable dividends and high yield, and China Pacific Insurance for its strong business model and market position [2][4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 3.7% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 4.2%, ranking low in the industry [5] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 25,178.46 billion, up 8.23% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in market activity [5][37] Insurance Sector Overview - In July 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 42,085 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%, with life insurance contributing 31,153 billion and non-life insurance 10,933 billion [21][22] - The total assets of the insurance industry as of July 2025 were 39.59 trillion, with life insurance companies holding 34.69 trillion [26][27] Brokerage and Investment Business - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity, with the average daily turnover in the two markets showing an increase, and the margin financing balance rising to 2.40 trillion, up 2.65% [38][45] - The equity market remains volatile, with the CSI 300 index down 0.44% and the ChiNext index up 2.34% [42] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks such as New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The recent implementation of the public fund fee reform in three phases is driving high-quality development in the industry. Brokerage firms continue to show high growth in their mid-year performance, and market enthusiasm remains high. The valuation still offers cost-effectiveness, suggesting a focus on leading companies and high-performing stocks in the sector. In the insurance sector, the overall trend supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerating valuation recovery [2][4] - From the perspective of profitability and dividend stability, the report continues to recommend Jiangsu Jinzu, which has stable profit growth and dividend rates, China Ping An, which maintains a high dividend yield, and China Pacific Insurance, which has clear advantages in business model and market position. Additionally, based on performance elasticity and valuation levels, the report recommends Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index increased by 0.3% this week, with an excess return of -1.1% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 24th out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 8.2%, with an excess return of -6.7%, also ranking 21st out of 31 [5] - Market enthusiasm has slightly declined, with an average daily trading volume of 23,264.15 billion yuan, down 10.63% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 2.45%, down 34.86 basis points [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Classification Evaluation Regulations for Futures Companies" [6] - Company announcements include Guosen Securities completing the registration procedures for issuing new shares to acquire 96.08% of Wanhe Securities, and Xibu Securities completing the transfer of shares for the acquisition of Guorong Securities [6] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report highlights a slight recovery in margin financing, with a balance of 2.34 trillion yuan, up 2.67% week-on-week. The stock pledge market remains cautious, with expectations of continued contraction in stock pledge scale, but improved asset yield rates are anticipated to enhance income performance [45][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights strong mid-year performance from 42 listed brokerages, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching CNY 251.89 billion and CNY 103.61 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.3% and 65.6% [2][4] - The insurance sector's mid-year disclosures confirm trends of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and potential valuation recovery [4] - Recommendations include focusing on high-performing stocks such as New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Eastmoney, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.5%, ranking 23rd out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 13.5%, with a relative underperformance of 0.8% against the CSI 300, ranking 19th out of 31 sectors [5] Market Performance - Market activity has shown signs of recovery, with average daily trading volume across both exchanges reaching CNY 298.31 billion, up 15.29% week-on-week [5][36] - The margin financing balance increased to CNY 2.24 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 4.52% [5][42] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report notes a recovery in trading activity, with the average daily trading volume exceeding the 2024 average, indicating a gradual improvement in brokerage business profitability [36] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the stock and bond market fluctuations for brokerage self-operated income [40] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance industry reported a cumulative premium income of CNY 420.85 billion in July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.75% [20][21] - The total assets of the insurance sector reached CNY 39.59 trillion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.95% [25][26] Investment Banking Activity - In July 2025, equity financing decreased significantly to CNY 53.38 billion, down 90.2% month-on-month, while bond financing totaled CNY 783 billion, down 11.3% [44] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting scale due to the advancement of refinancing regulations [47] Asset Management and Derivatives - The report indicates a decline in new issuance of collective asset management products, with July 2025 issuance at 5.489 billion units, down 43.6% [49] - The futures market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with July 2025 transactions reaching CNY 62.23 trillion, up 34.02% [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - In the brokerage sector, four listed brokerages recently disclosed their mid-year reports, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 15.302 billion yuan and 7.476 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4% and 41%. The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the sector as mid-year performance disclosures approach [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the asset side continues to see an upward trend in equity markets, with expected investment returns and profit growth performing well. The current valuation implies a pessimistic assumption about long-term investments, but the report views the current valuation as safe, considering medium to long-term interest rate spreads [4] - The report recommends several companies based on performance elasticity and valuation levels, including New China Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Recent mid-year reports from four listed brokerages show combined revenue of 15.302 billion yuan and net profit of 7.476 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 4% and 41% respectively [2][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-performing stocks as mid-year performance disclosures approach [4] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is experiencing a rise in asset-side equity markets, leading to positive expectations for investment returns and profit growth [4] - The report highlights the stability of earnings growth and dividend rates for companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have clear advantages in business models and market positions [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.7% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 14.4%, although it ranks lower compared to the broader market [5] - The report notes a recovery in market activity, with average daily trading volume reaching 25.8748 billion yuan, up 23.1% week-on-week [5][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The market's trading activity continues to rise, with the non-bank sector leading gains. As the mid-year reports approach, high profit growth is expected to persist. The report suggests capitalizing on the beta market and sectors that are expected to perform well in the mid-year reports. The brokerage sector is experiencing high trading activity, with many firms reporting strong preliminary results. The insurance sector is also expected to see an increase in new business value driven by rising value rates. Overall, the current valuations imply a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but the report views current valuations as safe, especially considering the improvement in concentration and liability costs [2][6][38]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 6.5% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.1%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 11.4%, with a 4.6% outperformance against the CSI 300 [7]. Insurance Sector - In June 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 373.50 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. The life insurance segment contributed 277.05 billion, up 5.38% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 96.45 billion, up 5.10% [23][24]. Brokerage Sector - The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 2,101.89 billion, a week-on-week increase of 23.90%. The average turnover rate was 2.35%, up 40.18 basis points [39]. Investment Business - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the ChiNext index by 8.58% [43]. Credit Business - The margin trading balance increased to 2.06 trillion, a week-on-week rise of 2.09%. The stock pledge shares reached 303.9 billion, with a pledge market value of 2.90 trillion [46]. Asset Management - In July 2025, the issuance of collective asset management products fell to 5.164 billion shares, a decrease of 46.9% from the previous month. However, the new fund issuance increased to 113.65 billion shares, up 33.1% [52].