2025年，港股二级市场的强劲复苏为一级股权融资提供了绝佳的"发射窗口"，恒生综合指数全年上涨30.98%。值得关注的是，市场风格呈现出明 显的"双轮驱动"特征：一方面，恒生金融类指数以39.26%的涨幅跨越式领跑，反映出宏观流动性改善下权重板块的压舱石作用；另一方面，恒生 科技指数与可持续发展企业指数分别上涨23.45%与31.36%，显示出资本对新质生产力与ESG长线价值的高度认可。同时，恒生港股通中小型股 指数（+30.93%）的出色表现，更是激活了中小市值企业的融资通道，市场不仅在"量"上翻番，更在"结构"上实现了多层次的发展。 二级市场流动性的深度修复与风险偏好的显著回升，为一级股权融资市场提供了理想的"发行窗口"，港股股权融资呈现出爆发式增长态 势。据统计，2025年全年，港股股权融资市场融资总额达6,122亿港元，较去年同期1,745亿港元明显翻倍，增长比率达250.91%，实现了 规模上的跃迁。这一激增得益于大型中概股回归及特专科技企业（18C）的常态化发行，不仅重塑了香港作为全球新股募资中心的地 位，更在南下资金定价权提升的背景下，完成了从"估值洼地"向"资产定价枢纽"的核心转型。 从项目类 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [8] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown weak overall performance this week, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) implementing multiple measures to promote high-quality development in the capital market, including new regulations on fund sales and the introduction of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) [2][4] - The insurance sector is expected to see improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery, supported by trends such as the migration of deposits and increased equity allocation [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, while also highlighting the potential of New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.3%, ranking 27th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 10.1%, but still lags behind the CSI 300 by 7.6%, ranking 20th out of 31 sectors [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The CSRC has issued several important announcements, including the launch of commercial real estate REITs and revisions to fund sales regulations, aimed at enhancing the capital market [6] - Notable company announcements include Nanjing Securities completing a private placement of approximately 713 million A-shares, increasing its total share capital, and Guoyuan Securities planning to transfer its stake in Anyuan Fund to related parties [6] Insurance Sector Insights - In November 2025, the insurance industry achieved a cumulative premium income of 57,629 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, with life insurance premiums growing by 9.06% [22][23] - The total assets of the insurance sector reached 40.65 trillion, with life insurance companies holding 35.75 trillion, indicating a stable asset allocation [26][27] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage sector has seen a recovery in trading activity, with average daily trading volume reaching 21,283.16 billion, up 8.30% week-on-week [41] - Equity market performance has been declining, with the CSI 300 index down 0.59% and the ChiNext index down 1.25% [45] - Margin financing has increased, with a balance of 2.56 trillion, reflecting a 0.39% week-on-week rise [49] Capital Market Financing - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing totaled 7.34 trillion, up 4.0% [53] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting volumes due to new refinancing regulations, while bond underwriting will be influenced by interest rate changes [53]

销售费新规落地，优化短期赎回费要求 投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Industry] 关于《基金销售费用管理规定》的点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 王思玥(分析师) | 021-38031024 | wangsiyue@gtht.com | S0880525070022 | 本报告导读： 新规相较征求意见稿，主要变化在于优化场外指数基金、债券基金短赎收费。考虑 了场外指数型基金、债券型基金持有人对流动性的需求，保障了公募产品的竞争力。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 事件：2025 年 12 月 31 日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销 售费用管理规定》 [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资银行业与经纪业《投融资再平衡持续，股权 融资逐步回暖》2025.12.22 投资银行业与经纪业《绩效考核迎新规，行业更 重投资者体验》2025.12.09 投资 ...

文/中金大类资产：李昭，杨晓卿 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 其次是美元信誉下降。 疫情后美国财政赤字率升至6%左右，远高于疫情前中枢，国家债务快速积累，导致债务风险上升。此外，近期美国总统特朗普对 美联储决策的干预增加，现任美联储主席鲍威尔将于2026年5月届满卸任，特朗普即将提名新一任美联储主席，投资者担忧美联储独立性下降。财政与货 币因素叠加，让投资者对美元体系与美元资产的信心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。黄金具有货币属性，是现行美元体 系的替代品，在美元信用分裂的过程中受益。 图表：美元指数从2025年初开启贬值周期 资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部 为何黄金大幅上涨？ 近期黄金价格一度冲破4500美元/盎司，再创历史新高，背后是三重因素支撑： 首先是美联储重启宽松周期。 在维持政策利率水平9个月不变之后，美联 储今年9月重启降息，已经连续降息三次各25bp，且宣布12月开始购买短端国债，扩大央行资产负债表，向市场投放流动性。进入2026年，美联储的前瞻 指引显示明年可能仍会继续降息。美联储货币大方向上趋于宽松，支持黄金表现。 图表：美联储 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown strong performance this week, with notable developments in the brokerage sector, including the merger plans of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing and Xinda, indicating a further acceleration of supply-side reforms in the industry. The insurance sector is also seeing regulatory advancements with the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) seeking public opinion on the draft asset-liability management guidelines for insurance companies. The report suggests that the long-term outlook is positive, with improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery expected, making the sector increasingly attractive for investment [2][4]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have strong market positions and business models. Additionally, it highlights companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their earnings elasticity and valuation levels [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.9% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 3.2%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 9.8%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 6.3% [5]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 17,604.84 billion yuan, down 9.86% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 1.83%, down 19.91 basis points [5]. Industry News and Company Announcements - Key announcements include the merger plans of CICC with Dongxing and Xinda, and the CBIRC's public consultation on insurance asset-liability management guidelines. The report also notes the upcoming dividend announcements from Huaxi Securities, CICC, and Shenwan Hongyuan [6][19]. Insurance Sector Insights - In October 2025, the cumulative insurance premium income reached 548.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.99%. Life insurance premiums grew by 9.56%, while property insurance premiums increased by 4.02% [23][24]. - The total assets of insurance companies reached 40.59 trillion yuan, with life insurance companies holding 35.68 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.68% increase [27][28]. Brokerage Sector Insights - The report highlights a decline in the overall equity market, with the CSI 300 index down 0.28% and the ChiNext index down 2.26%. The brokerage sector's investment assets are primarily in bonds, with equity investments comprising about 10%-30% [40][46]. - Margin trading balances decreased to 2.50 trillion yuan, down 0.34% week-on-week, indicating a cautious approach to stock pledge business due to previous credit risks [49]. Financing and Asset Management - In November 2025, equity financing reached 50.65 billion yuan, while bond financing totaled 706 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in financing activities [53]. - The report notes a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with 4.387 billion units issued in November, up 4.1% from the previous month [55].

Market Overview - Overall asset performance shows commodities outperforming equities, with the Korean stock market leading gains[4] - MSCI global index increased by 0.6%, but growth momentum has significantly slowed compared to previous weeks[5] - The yield curve for Chinese bonds is steepening, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, while U.S. bonds are experiencing a "bull steepening" trend[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - 10 out of 13 major commodities recorded price increases, with COMEX silver rising by 101.9% year-to-date[7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, with the euro and pound appreciating by 0.4% and 0.8% respectively; the dollar has depreciated by 8.8% since the beginning of the year[7] Consumer and Industrial Insights - Service consumption has improved year-on-year, with Shanghai Disneyland's visitor index up by 75% compared to last year[10] - Real estate transactions in major cities have seen significant declines, with new home sales down by 32.5% year-on-year[30] Financial Sector Developments - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds reached 36 trillion yuan, with equity funds increasing by 1.55%[24] - The performance evaluation of the investment banking sector is shifting towards enhancing investor experience[23] Company-Specific Highlights - Traffic Bank's net profit growth is projected at 2.3% for 2025, with a target price adjustment to 8.58 yuan based on a 0.72x PB valuation[34] - Didi's EBITA is expected to be 46.0 billion yuan in 2025, with a target market value of 234.7 billion yuan[39]

每经AI快讯，中国光大控股(00165.HK)今早一度涨超11%，截至发稿，涨7.51%，报9.73港元，成交额 2.64亿港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong overall performance this week, with brokerages expected to maintain high growth trends in 2025. The report suggests focusing on the sector's future allocation value [2][4]. - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) has issued a notice adjusting risk factors related to insurance companies' business, which is expected to enhance the certainty of ROE improvement and accelerate valuation recovery in the medium to long term [4][6]. - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as those with significant advantages in business models and market positions [4]. Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.3% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.0%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up 5.9%, but underperformed the CSI 300 by 10.6% [5][17]. - The average daily trading volume in the market decreased to 16,961.78 billion yuan, down 2.35% week-on-week, while the margin financing balance rose to 2.48 trillion yuan, up 0.48% [5][39]. Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The CBIRC has adjusted risk factors for insurance companies, which is expected to support the growth of patient capital and enhance service quality to the real economy [6][64]. - Companies such as Zhongtai Securities and New China Life have announced their respective stock issuance and dividend distribution plans for the first half of 2025 [6].

在刚过去的这一周，道指累计上涨0.5%，标普500指数涨0.31%，纳指涨0.91%。有分析人士表示，美联 储降息预期强化、核心PCE物价指数升幅低于预期显示通胀压力缓解、推动市场风险偏好上升。 【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间12月6日凌晨，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.22%报47954.99点， 标普500指数涨0.19%报6870.4点，纳指涨0.31%报23578.13点。赛富时涨超5%，高盛集团涨近2%，领涨 道指。万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.2%，脸书涨近2%，谷歌涨超1%。 方正证券近日发布研报认为，2023年以来，AI驱动下美股科技股大幅跑赢基准，映射到A股市场上科技 股行情同样火热。科技股的持续上涨，导致美股估值水位和市场集中度偏高，AI竞赛下科技龙头公司 的资本开支规模将大幅提升，但财务可持续性、AI投资的盈利性引发市场担忧。 对此，方正证券判断，道指科技股占比和估值相对较低，在科技股逆风周期中，道指跑赢纳指的胜率较 高；2026年美股中小盘盈利增速或优于大盘，且中小盘股的估值处于低位。 总体来看，与2000年科网泡沫相比，当下美股估值水位仍相对可控，盈利仍较为稳健，且戳破科技股泡 沫很 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent merger announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, indicating a trend towards consolidation among leading brokerages [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports confirm a shift towards equity investments and improved cost structures, suggesting a higher certainty of ROE improvement and potential for accelerated valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment in the sector is gradually increasing, with ongoing revaluation of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities reflects a long-term trend of concentration among top firms [4] - The brokerage sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [41] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported significant growth in value, premiums, and profits, with a cumulative premium income of CNY 52,146 billion in September 2025, marking an 8.76% year-on-year increase [23][24] - The report emphasizes the stability of dividends and profit growth in companies like Jiangsu Jinzu and China Ping An, which are recommended for investment [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 4.4% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.8%, indicating a mixed performance relative to the broader market [5][19] - The average daily trading volume in the market has decreased to CNY 18,650.36 billion, down 8.75% from the previous period [41] Financing Activities - In October 2025, equity financing increased to CNY 501.42 billion, a 20.4% rise, while bond financing decreased to CNY 6.56 trillion, a 19.2% drop [53] - The report notes a decline in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a new issuance of 4.183 billion units in October, down 37.3% [56]