面板专家交流 20251207 摘要 受 2026 年美加墨世界杯拉动，面板厂提前备货致面板价格短期上涨， 但需求前置可能削弱后续支撑，需警惕价格回落风险。 中国市场受外部不确定性、中日关系及房地产市场影响，预计 2026 年 电视市场规模将下降，国补政策对高能效产品补贴力度有限。 欧洲市场受俄乌冲突和消费者信心影响，需求难以显著提振；东南亚市 场预计小幅增长，印度市场有望受益于 GST 税改刺激。 面板厂商策略趋于稳定，如京东方和 TCL 华星更注重市占率和盈利能力， 通过控制产能维持价格稳定，实现盈利目标。 2025 年第四季度面板厂与整机厂采购量增加，部分代理商囤积面板以 期未来涨价获利，但头部品牌库存压力仍然较大。 北美市场对中国品牌如 TCL 影响显著，沃尔玛扩大自有品牌规模并下单 备货，同时美加墨世界杯也推动零售商提前备货。 OLED 在大尺寸电视领域发展受限，Mini LED 凭借成本优势和性能提升， 更具竞争力；OLED 在 IT 市场的中小尺寸应用仍有潜力。 Q&A 目前全球面板市场的供需情况如何？未来价格走势如何？ 当前全球面板市场的产能相对稳定，主要是需求在影响价格走势。以电视为例， 预 ...

Group 1 - AUO and Innolux both warned that the traditional peak season in the second half of the year will not be strong, leading to a downward revision of capital expenditure targets [1] - AUO reduced its capital expenditure target for 2025 from NT$30 billion to no more than NT$28 billion, a decrease of approximately 7% [1] - Both companies indicated that consumer demand is becoming conservative, which may affect sales during the year-end holiday season in the US [1] Group 2 - AUO's chairman mentioned that factors such as the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar and unclear tariffs have led to conservative inventory management by clients, resulting in expected declines in panel shipments across all product lines this quarter [1] - AUO estimated that the average exchange rate of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar for the second half of the year will be NT$29, with over 90% of its revenue denominated in USD [1] - The company expects its display business revenue in NT$ to decrease compared to the third quarter, although USD revenue is anticipated to remain stable compared to the second quarter [1] Group 3 - AUO's general manager noted that Mobility Solution revenue in USD will continue to grow, while NT$ revenue is expected to decline by 5%, with annual growth in the single-digit percentage range [2] - The Vertical Solution segment is projected to see a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase in revenue due to AUO's increased control over Advantech [2] - In the second quarter, the combined revenue share of AUO's two major business segments reached 43%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-over-year [3] Group 4 - Innolux stated that panel demand will become conservative due to tariff issues and some clients pulling orders ahead of time [3] - The company expects a decline in shipments across all product lines this quarter, with commercial displays and non-display sectors projected to decrease by approximately 3% and consumer displays by about 5% [3] - Both companies are adopting a just-in-time production strategy to maintain supply-demand balance and price order in the market [3]