Core Insights - The GLP-1 market is experiencing rapid growth, with top two drugs projected to generate nearly $50 billion in sales by 2024, driven by frequent business development events and intensive research and development activities [1] - There is significant room for improvement in patient adherence and market penetration for existing GLP-1 drugs, with the next wave of drug iterations expected to accelerate market expansion [1][2] - The focus of current research includes target synergy and oral formulations, with an emphasis on the differentiated advantages in efficacy and adherence [3][4] Market Growth - The GLP-1 market is still in a rapid growth phase, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominating the global market, increasing their revenue from approximately $2.9 billion in 2015 to about $49.4 billion in 2024, representing a 47% growth in sales for four key drugs [1] - The sales of Tirzepatide for weight loss and type 2 diabetes are expected to reach $3.381 billion and $5.199 billion respectively by Q2 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 68% and 172% [1] Patient Adherence and Market Penetration - The current penetration rate of GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes is around 7%, while for obesity it is less than 1%, indicating substantial potential for growth [2] - Among the 115 million obese patients in the U.S., approximately 84 million do not have type 2 diabetes, ASCVD, or CKD, representing a significant target market for GLP-1 drugs [2] - The sales proportion of GLP-1 weight loss drugs is expected to increase from 14% to 37% in the coming years, indicating a trend towards greater market share [2] Research and Development Focus - The clinical value of new GLP-1 drugs is primarily assessed through efficacy and adherence, with a clear path for differentiation from Tirzepatide [3] - Key research directions include target synergy through combinations with other receptors (e.g., GCGR, GIPR) to achieve higher weight loss in shorter time frames [3] - Oral formulations are being prioritized to enhance drug penetration, with ongoing developments showing promising efficacy, although still trailing behind injectable forms [4] Innovative Approaches - Early clinical trials are exploring muscle gain and fat loss, with promising results indicating significant fat loss while maintaining muscle mass [4] - The first RNAi therapy targeting fat tissue expression genes is entering clinical research, showing potential for long-term weight management [4]