Core Insights - The GLP-1 market is experiencing rapid growth, with top two drugs projected to generate nearly $50 billion in sales by 2024, driven by frequent business development events and intensive research and development activities [1] - There is significant room for improvement in patient adherence and market penetration for existing GLP-1 drugs, with the next wave of drug iterations expected to accelerate market expansion [1][2] - The focus of current research includes target synergy and oral formulations, with an emphasis on the differentiated advantages in efficacy and adherence [3][4] Market Growth - The GLP-1 market is still in a rapid growth phase, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominating the global market, increasing their revenue from approximately $2.9 billion in 2015 to about $49.4 billion in 2024, representing a 47% growth in sales for four key drugs [1] - The sales of Tirzepatide for weight loss and type 2 diabetes are expected to reach $3.381 billion and $5.199 billion respectively by Q2 2025, showing year-on-year growth of 68% and 172% [1] Patient Adherence and Market Penetration - The current penetration rate of GLP-1 drugs for type 2 diabetes is around 7%, while for obesity it is less than 1%, indicating substantial potential for growth [2] - Among the 115 million obese patients in the U.S., approximately 84 million do not have type 2 diabetes, ASCVD, or CKD, representing a significant target market for GLP-1 drugs [2] - The sales proportion of GLP-1 weight loss drugs is expected to increase from 14% to 37% in the coming years, indicating a trend towards greater market share [2] Research and Development Focus - The clinical value of new GLP-1 drugs is primarily assessed through efficacy and adherence, with a clear path for differentiation from Tirzepatide [3] - Key research directions include target synergy through combinations with other receptors (e.g., GCGR, GIPR) to achieve higher weight loss in shorter time frames [3] - Oral formulations are being prioritized to enhance drug penetration, with ongoing developments showing promising efficacy, although still trailing behind injectable forms [4] Innovative Approaches - Early clinical trials are exploring muscle gain and fat loss, with promising results indicating significant fat loss while maintaining muscle mass [4] - The first RNAi therapy targeting fat tissue expression genes is entering clinical research, showing potential for long-term weight management [4]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the export of domestic innovative drugs, highlighting potential hot areas such as autoimmune diseases, tumor ADCs, and metabolic disorders [1][2] - The domestic innovative drug BD (business development) has seen rapid growth, with 83 licensing agreements reached so far this year, representing a 57% year-on-year increase, and a total amount of $845.31 billion, up 185% year-on-year [2][8] - The report identifies three main directions for growth: autoimmune drugs, ADCs, and metabolic drugs, each with unique opportunities and challenges [2][3][30] Group 1: Autoimmune Drugs - The autoimmune sector has produced several blockbuster products, but there remains unmet treatment needs. Potential upgrades include combination therapies, long-acting formulations, and oral options [2][17] - Domestic innovative drugs are leading in the development of next-generation autoimmune blockbusters, with some cutting-edge targets having global exclusivity [2][17][24] Group 2: Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADCs) - The combination of immuno-oncology (IO) and ADCs is becoming a consensus direction in tumor treatment, with domestic ADCs expected to drive a new wave of BD activity [3][25] - Historical data shows that ADCs have been a strong area for domestic innovative drug BD, with high recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs) [3][29] Group 3: Metabolic Drugs - The GLP-1 class of drugs has shown significant market potential, with global sales expected to exceed $50 billion in 2024, and the market projected to surpass $130 billion by 2030 [30][32] - The competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs is still forming, with many MNCs in early development stages, presenting opportunities for domestic companies to fill gaps in the market [30][31] Group 4: Market Trends and Projections - As of August 27, 2025, domestic innovative drugs accounted for over 15% of global BD project numbers and over 50% of total disclosed amounts, indicating a significant increase in market share [10][12] - The report highlights that the value reassessment of Chinese innovative drug projects is underway, with many expected to reach commercialization and share in overseas market revenues [10][12]