Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, particularly the baijiu industry, is currently experiencing a rebound, with expectations for further investment opportunities in the second half of the year as the industry is rapidly bottoming out [1][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The baijiu sector has seen a significant rebound, with a notable increase on August 20, 2023. However, since 2021, the industry's valuation has been in a continuous decline, with the current PE-TTM at 18.61 as of August 19, 2023 [7]. Investment Logic - Institutions suggest that the baijiu sector is now at a point where gradual investment can be considered. The low expectations and recent price corrections have led to valuations being at a low point. Additionally, the proportion of funds holding baijiu stocks has decreased, indicating a relatively favorable chip structure [4][5][7]. Future Outlook - The baijiu industry is in a phase of rapid bottoming, with leading companies likely to take advantage of this period to adjust their channel structures and enhance market development capabilities. If consumer demand begins to recover, these companies are expected to benefit significantly [5][8]. - The baijiu sector is characterized as a cyclical growth stock, with a forecasted earnings bottom potentially occurring in the first half of 2026. Price signals suggest that baijiu stock prices may turn upward before demand-side recovery [5][8]. Industry Transition - The positioning of the baijiu industry is shifting due to changes in the macroeconomic environment and consumer structure. By 2025, the industry is expected to transition from being a cyclical growth sector to a value dividend asset that emphasizes stable cash flow and consistent dividend capabilities [5][8].

国泰海通在其研报中指出，白酒在中期维度内的核心矛盾仍在于需求侧，产业调整的本质是渠道底、业 绩底和库存底这"三大底"围绕需求侧的先后展开，从顺序看，渠道底>业绩底>库存底；对投资而言， 白酒板块作为顺周期成长股，只有经历业绩底后方迎来趋势性配置机会，站在当下，政策变量将显著收 窄产业调整时间，从节奏看，当下已处于渠道利润底，并向业绩底加速迈进，预计最早在2026上半年有 望达到业绩底，结合批价等高频信号，白酒股价有望先于需求侧出现趋势级拐点。 从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1446.21元/股，上涨1.78%；五粮液收盘价达123.83元/股，上涨1.32%； 泸州老窖收盘价达125.41元/股，上涨2.67%；洋河股份收盘价达69.48元/股，上涨1.00%；山西汾酒收盘 价达185.13元/股，上涨3.35%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）8月11日早盘，三大指数集体上涨，沪指3653.50点上涨0.51%。白酒 板块2231.06点收盘上涨1.07%，古井贡酒4.98%领涨白酒股。 ...