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中国社科院原副院长、学部委员高培勇:将预期因素纳入宏观经济分析 让政策调整和改革行动同频共振
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-06-25 18:21
Core Viewpoint - The integration of expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is essential for addressing the current challenges in China's economic development, particularly in stabilizing consumer and investment demand [1][2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The analysis should focus on the interplay between demand, supply, and expectations, emphasizing the need for stable expectations to alleviate issues related to insufficient consumer and investment demand [1] - It is crucial to address both old and new problems in macroeconomic analysis, as the inclusion of expectation analysis complicates the focus, requiring attention to both traditional demand issues and new concerns regarding weak expectations and confidence [1] - The analysis must adapt to the current context of weak domestic demand and expectations, necessitating a shift in focus towards strategies that enhance both demand and confidence [1] Group 2: Goals and Policies - The analysis should reconcile old and new goals, recognizing that effective macroeconomic strategies must consider both immediate demand expansion and long-term confidence stabilization [1][2] - The dual system of macroeconomic regulation involves both policy adjustments and reform actions, which must work in tandem to effectively address short-term and long-term economic challenges [2] - Focusing solely on policy adjustments without considering necessary reforms may undermine the overall effectiveness of economic efforts [2] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Incorporating expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is not only a response to current economic pressures but also a long-term strategy for promoting stable and rapid economic development [2] - Market expectations play a significant role in influencing economic activities, highlighting the importance of integrating these factors into comprehensive macroeconomic analysis for enhanced effectiveness and relevance [2]