Core Viewpoint - The integration of expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is essential for addressing the current challenges in China's economic development, particularly in stabilizing consumer and investment demand [1][2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The analysis should focus on the interplay between demand, supply, and expectations, emphasizing the need for stable expectations to alleviate issues related to insufficient consumer and investment demand [1] - It is crucial to address both old and new problems in macroeconomic analysis, as the inclusion of expectation analysis complicates the focus, requiring attention to both traditional demand issues and new concerns regarding weak expectations and confidence [1] - The analysis must adapt to the current context of weak domestic demand and expectations, necessitating a shift in focus towards strategies that enhance both demand and confidence [1] Group 2: Goals and Policies - The analysis should reconcile old and new goals, recognizing that effective macroeconomic strategies must consider both immediate demand expansion and long-term confidence stabilization [1][2] - The dual system of macroeconomic regulation involves both policy adjustments and reform actions, which must work in tandem to effectively address short-term and long-term economic challenges [2] - Focusing solely on policy adjustments without considering necessary reforms may undermine the overall effectiveness of economic efforts [2] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Incorporating expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is not only a response to current economic pressures but also a long-term strategy for promoting stable and rapid economic development [2] - Market expectations play a significant role in influencing economic activities, highlighting the importance of integrating these factors into comprehensive macroeconomic analysis for enhanced effectiveness and relevance [2]

新京报讯（记者柯锐）4月22日，在新京报主办的主题为"直面关税战，锻造经济韧性——2025新京智库 春季论坛"上，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国社会科学院原副院长高培勇表示，当下宏观调控所需解 决的问题至少是双重的，既有需求不足的"老"问题，也有预期偏弱的"新"问题，宏观调控要在病灶和病 源两个层面同时着力，既着眼于治标，又着重于治本，标本兼治。 高培勇表示，以往经济运行当中面对的困难和挑战多可归结于因社会总供求失衡而导致的经济波动，而 当前我们面对的经济运行当中的困难和挑战，则相对复杂得多。 虽然同样表现为经济波动，虽然同样可以从中发现社会总供求失衡的身影，但顺藤摸瓜，透过经济波动 和社会总供求失衡而深入到其本质，仔细比对之后，会发现其背后的深层原因在于预期偏弱，故而当下 宏观调控所需解决的问题便不那么单一了。 在高培勇看来，如果将有效需求不足视作病灶，那么其背后的深层病源则是预期偏弱，因预期偏弱而导 致有效需求不足，进而导致社会总供求失衡，是当下宏观调控所需解决的问题的复杂性之所在。"这意 味着当前中国宏观经济运行中的突出矛盾，较之于以往在发生变化，这就是由社会总供求失衡引致的经 济波动，延伸为由预期和信心 ...

4月22日，在新京报主办的"直面关税战，锻造经济韧性——2025新京智库春季论坛"上，中国社会科学 院学部委员、中国社会科学院原副院长高培勇在题为"如何提高宏观调控的前瞻性、有效性、针对性"的 主旨演讲中表示， 在特朗普发动贸易战、发动关税战的背景下，更加严峻复杂的外部环境对我国的宏 观调控提出了新的更高的要求。如何提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性，这是摆在我们面前的一 个必须回答的重大课题。 坚持问题导向，以真正找准问题为前提 在高培勇看来，以往经济运行中，面对的困难和挑战多可归结于因社会总供求失衡而导致的经济波动。 在这种背景条件下，宏观调控所需解决的问题往往是相对单一的。"但是当前我们面对的经济运行中的 困难和挑战，则相对复杂得多。虽然同样表现为经济波动，虽然同样可以从中发现社会总供求失衡的身 影，但顺藤摸瓜，透过经济波动和社会总供求失衡而深入到其本质，会发现其背后的深层原因在于预期 偏弱，故而当下宏观调控所需解决的问题便不那么单一了。" 高培勇认为，在兼容扩需求和稳预期双重目标的同时，以稳预期来支撑扩需求，是当下宏观调控所需实 现目标复杂性的原因。鉴于当前有效需求不足和预期偏弱，有病灶和病源之别， ...