Core Viewpoint - The integration of expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is essential for addressing the current challenges in China's economic development, particularly in stabilizing consumer and investment demand [1][2] Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The analysis should focus on the interplay between demand, supply, and expectations, emphasizing the need for stable expectations to alleviate issues related to insufficient consumer and investment demand [1] - It is crucial to address both old and new problems in macroeconomic analysis, as the inclusion of expectation analysis complicates the focus, requiring attention to both traditional demand issues and new concerns regarding weak expectations and confidence [1] - The analysis must adapt to the current context of weak domestic demand and expectations, necessitating a shift in focus towards strategies that enhance both demand and confidence [1] Group 2: Goals and Policies - The analysis should reconcile old and new goals, recognizing that effective macroeconomic strategies must consider both immediate demand expansion and long-term confidence stabilization [1][2] - The dual system of macroeconomic regulation involves both policy adjustments and reform actions, which must work in tandem to effectively address short-term and long-term economic challenges [2] - Focusing solely on policy adjustments without considering necessary reforms may undermine the overall effectiveness of economic efforts [2] Group 3: Long-term Strategy - Incorporating expectation factors into macroeconomic analysis is not only a response to current economic pressures but also a long-term strategy for promoting stable and rapid economic development [2] - Market expectations play a significant role in influencing economic activities, highlighting the importance of integrating these factors into comprehensive macroeconomic analysis for enhanced effectiveness and relevance [2]

从这个意义上讲，当下的宏观调控所需依托的载体是双重的，既有侧重于扩大需求的政策调整，也有侧 重于稳定预期的改革行动。所需依托的载体既然是双重的，宏观调控就要在政策与改革两个系统上同时 着力，既要通过政策调整，有效解决短期的问题和矛盾，又需立足于改革行动致力于解决长期的问题和 矛盾。 新京报讯（记者柯锐）4月22日，在新京报主办的主题为"直面关税战，锻造经济韧性——2025新京智库 春季论坛"上，中国社会科学院学部委员、中国社会科学院原副院长高培勇表示，改革与政策是宏观调 控的双引擎。在应对当下的更趋严峻复杂的外部环境的挑战中，宏观调控领域的政策调整和改革行动如 同车之两轮、鸟之两翼，缺一不可。 在高培勇看来，改革与政策可谓宏观调控的双引擎，宏观调控是依托于政策调整还是依托于改革的行 动，或者同时依托于政策调整和改革行动，当然要取决于我们要解决什么样的问题，要实现什么样的目 标。 高培勇认为，当前面对主要由预期和信心变化引致的经济波动，围绕同时实现扩大需求和稳定预期的双 重宏观调控目标，宏观调控所需依托的载体则相对复杂，不那么单一了。这是由其所需解决的问题和所 需实现的目标的相对复杂性所决定的。 "在这样的背景 ...