分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 A 股科技消费均衡配置，债市区间震荡 把握长债机会 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：温和修复中的震荡蓄势——月 度策略》 2026-02-04 《月度策略：继续关注科技成长及高股息 "哑铃"策略——月度策略》 2026-01-07 《月度策略：平稳收官, 高股息防御与科技 成长布局——月度策略》 2025-12-03 联系人：李智 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 2,900.00 3,100.00 3,300.00 3,500.00 3,700.00 3,900.00 4,100.00 4,300.00 上证综合指数 中债国债到期收益率:10年(%) 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 04 日 投资要点： 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号T1座22楼 股市回顾。2 月 A 股市场中小盘风格全面占优，中证 2000、中证 1000 等小盘指数月度领涨，沪深 300 等大蓝筹相对滞涨，风格层 面周期与成长双轮驱动，金融 ...

固定资产投资下降有所加速，稳投资仍待进一步发力。 全年固定资产投资同比-3.8%，降幅较1-11月扩大1.2个百分点，其中建安投资累计同比-8.4%（1-11 月为-6.4%），反映建筑业偏弱的态势。12月固定投资季调环比下降1.13%，降幅较11月的0.37%扩大。虽然四季度新型政策性金融工具和地方政府专项债 等部分稳投资政策加力，但是推动投资止跌回稳仍待政策进一步发力。 中金研究 四季度主要指标量价仍然偏弱，实际GDP同比4.5%，GDP平减指数同比-0.7%。全年经济增长目标顺利完成，出口竞争力改善，外需总体上好于内需。 12月单月来看，社零增速放缓，固定资产投资偏弱运行。与2024年相比，最终消费和净出口对2025年GDP增长的贡献上升，资本形成的贡献下降较 多。总体而言，2025年经济继续呈现分化态势，供给强于需求、外需好于内需、制造业投资好于基建和房地产投资。2025年中央经济工作会议将扩内 需放在2026年重点任务之首，消费与投资均待政策发力，但从内生动能来看，消费对投资的引领意义重大。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？中金公司总量以及行业为您联合解读。 目录 宏观：分化中收 ...

Core Viewpoint - Song Yu has officially joined UBS Securities as an analyst, bringing extensive experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy evaluation, particularly regarding China's economic trends and investment strategies [1][4][6]. Group 1: Company Changes - On January 5, 2026, the securities industry system indicated that Song Yu has officially transitioned to UBS Securities [1][4]. - Previously, Song Yu held significant positions as the Chief Economist for Goldman Sachs Gao Hua Securities and BlackRock's Chief China Economist [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - As the Chief China Economist at BlackRock, Song Yu expressed a positive outlook on the Chinese economy, highlighting its strong resilience and the potential for the stock market to stabilize and recover [3][6]. - He believes there is currently an opportunity for value investment in Chinese assets, indicating a bottom-overweight situation [3][6]. - Song Yu is also monitoring the impact of U.S. Federal Reserve policies on the Chinese economy, predicting that the new chairperson, expected to be appointed in 2026, may influence decision-making [3][6].

Group 1 - The increasing number of A-share listed companies makes it challenging for investors with limited financial knowledge to analyze periodic reports effectively [1] - A strategy of value investing in indices is suggested, allowing investors to focus on macroeconomic trends rather than individual company performance [1][2] - This macro-level analysis is seen as more comprehensive and forward-looking, helping investors grasp the overall trends in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - ETF funds provide a convenient tool for investors to indirectly invest in the performance of indices, reducing the complexity of selecting individual stocks [2] - Investing in indices is considered a form of value investing, where the focus is on the overall index rather than single companies [2] - This investment approach allows investors to benefit from market growth without the need to constantly monitor individual company financials, saving time and effort [2] Group 3 - While investing in indices carries risks due to macroeconomic uncertainties, it is viewed as a more controlled risk compared to individual stock investments [3] - Investors can save on transaction costs when trading ETF funds, as they are exempt from securities transaction stamp duty, making them cheaper than trading individual stocks [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that changes in retail sales growth are primarily influenced by residents' income levels and future income expectations rather than supply-demand dynamics in the consumer goods or services market [1][2] - It is essential to incorporate expected factors into macroeconomic analysis, moving beyond traditional supply-demand models to address the complexities of the current economic situation [1] - Long-term expectations of future income are significantly influenced by the trajectory of the distribution system, not just economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The discussion on improving the distribution system highlights the need for a coordinated system encompassing primary distribution, redistribution, and tertiary distribution, along with increased regulatory measures through taxation, social security, and transfer payments [1][2] - The focus of the redistribution system should be on individual residents rather than corporate intermediaries, and it is crucial to regulate wealth accumulation mechanisms that increasingly affect income distribution [2] - The recommendation for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to conduct analyses that are more aligned with China's realities, emphasizing reforms and opening up as fundamental to driving economic growth [2]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - August non-farm employment data was weaker than expected, with previous months' employment figures revised down[1] - The unemployment rate remains stable due to a significant increase in household survey employment, but the job market shows signs of prolonged weakness[1] - Inflation indicators show a mild increase in overall CPI, but the super core CPI excluding housing and used cars has slowed down, raising concerns[1] Group 2: European Economic Outlook - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its current policy stance, showing confidence in future inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone[1] - Market expectations for another rate cut before mid-2026 have dropped below 50%[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - August export growth declined year-on-year due to a high base effect from last year, with exports to non-US countries outperforming those to the US[4] - PPI year-on-year growth has narrowed due to low base effects and "anti-involution" policies, while CPI growth is significantly impacted by food and energy prices[4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to strengthen domestic circulation and enhance fiscal-financial coordination[4] Group 4: Market Trends and Prices - Real estate transactions remain sluggish, while wholesale prices of agricultural products have rebounded[4] - Steel prices are stable, cement prices have slightly increased, and coal prices have decreased, while non-ferrous metal prices have risen[4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **bond market** and its relationship with the **macro economy**. The bond market has grown significantly, from 20% to 120% of GDP over the past 20 years, indicating its increasing influence on the macro economy [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Reflexivity of Bond Market**: The bond market's reflexive impact on the macro economy is crucial for understanding economic conditions. Various factors such as economic fundamentals, liquidity, policy, supply-demand relationships, and market sentiment influence interest rate fluctuations [1][2]. 2. **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The relationship between macroeconomic conditions and asset prices is characterized by supply-demand contradictions. Price fluctuations in assets like stocks and bonds reflect these contradictions [5][11]. 3. **Inflation and Interest Rate Predictions**: To determine whether the current macroeconomic environment is inflationary or deflationary, and to predict interest rate trends, analysts must examine output gaps and inflation gaps. The Taylor rule's effectiveness is limited in stagflation scenarios [6][11]. 4. **Long-term Relationship Between Interest Rates and GDP Growth**: There is a long-term intrinsic consistency between interest rates and nominal GDP growth. Historical data from countries like the US and Japan shows that rising nominal GDP growth correlates with increasing bond yields [7][8]. 5. **Capital Returns and Interest Rates**: Interest rates are fundamentally determined by capital returns, which are driven by economic growth and debt leverage. High debt leverage typically accompanies higher economic growth and capital returns [9][10]. 6. **Private Non-Financial Sector Debt Leverage**: The year-on-year growth rate of private non-financial sector debt leverage can measure debt leverage strength, which leads capital returns. Recent years have seen a slowdown in China's private sector debt leverage expansion, contributing to lower interest rates despite economic stimulus measures [10][17]. 7. **Predicting Future Bond Rates**: Future bond rates can be predicted by analyzing the contradiction between financing demand and funding supply, using metrics like the loan demand index minus M2 growth [11][12]. 8. **Real Estate Market's Impact**: The real estate sector plays a critical role in the economy, with its decline since 2021 leading to a significant reduction in financing demand, which in turn affects interest rates [16][17]. 9. **Government Debt and Interest Burden**: Increased government debt leverage raises interest burdens. China's interest payments on government bonds have doubled over the past 5-6 years, reflecting a growing concern about fiscal sustainability [28][30]. Other Important Insights - **Economic Cycles and Financing Demand**: China's economic cycles have seen shifts in financing demand, with different sectors becoming predominant over time. The recent trend shows a decline in both resident and corporate borrowing willingness [13][14]. - **Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact**: Consumer demand, which constitutes over 50% of GDP, is closely linked to employment and income levels. Recent trends indicate a decrease in consumer financing demand, contributing to lower interest rates [24][25]. - **Monetary Policy Adjustments**: The People's Bank of China has shifted its monetary policy focus from solely inflation to a more diversified approach, considering various economic indicators [33][34]. - **Future Economic Outlook**: The economic growth rate is expected to decline in the latter half of the year due to reduced external demand and internal consumption challenges, with inflation remaining weak [42][43][44]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market's dynamics and its implications for the macro economy.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The high demand for the US dollar as a global reserve currency leads to its overvaluation, which suppresses the competitiveness of the US manufacturing sector and results in long-term trade deficits [1][2] - The Chinese stock market performs well despite slowing economic growth and low inflation, attributed to phase-specific monetary policy easing, optimistic policy expectations, and liquidity in the market [1][4] - A comprehensive macroeconomic analysis should integrate both financial and real perspectives, focusing on monetary supply, interest rates, capital market dynamics, production capacity, employment, and consumer demand [1][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Currency and Economic Policy - The preference for a strong or weak dollar in the US depends on economic policy goals, such as promoting exports or attracting capital [2] - The relationship between financial cycles and real economic cycles is crucial for macroeconomic regulation, with financial cycles often requiring looser fiscal policies in their later stages [3][23] Section 2: Chinese Stock Market Dynamics - The positive performance of the Chinese stock market can be understood through various lenses, including liquidity, investor confidence, and policy expectations, despite a weak fundamental backdrop [4][30] Section 3: Financial and Real Economic Perspectives - A dual perspective on macroeconomics, considering both financial and real aspects, is essential for accurate predictions and targeted policy recommendations [5][12] - The interaction between financial markets and the real economy is significant, as evidenced by the 2008 financial crisis, which highlighted the risks of neglecting this relationship [7][8][15] Section 4: Unique Aspects of Chinese Fiscal Policy - China's fiscal policy is characterized by its complexity, involving multiple budgets and a variety of quasi-fiscal tools that allow for flexible macroeconomic adjustments [18][19] Section 5: Debt and Economic Stability - The US government debt is projected to reach 140% of GDP in ten years, raising concerns about sustainability, especially in the context of persistent inflation [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing for Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve Board, emphasizing the importance of preventing economic recession and hyperinflation as the central bank's primary tasks [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Independence - Milan asserts that the independence of monetary policy is crucial for its success [1] - He plans to fulfill his duties based on macroeconomic analysis and long-term beneficial judgments if confirmed [1] - Milan intends to maintain the independence of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is tasked with significant responsibilities [1] Group 2: Regulatory Concerns - Milan raises questions regarding the Federal Reserve's activities beyond its dual mandate, particularly concerning its balance sheet [1] - He highlights the Fed's role in regulating major financial institutions and setting different capital prices for borrowers and lenders, including other central banks [1] - The final composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains an unresolved issue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a schedule of upcoming Bloomberg seminars and workshops aimed at enhancing users' understanding of various financial markets and tools, including macroeconomic analysis, equity valuation, and portfolio management [3][12]. Group 1: Seminar and Workshop Schedule - A seminar on Japanese macroeconomic and foreign exchange market analysis is scheduled for September 10 [3]. - The Bloomberg Terminal introductory series includes sessions on Excel API data retrieval on September 11, and customizing personal workspaces on September 23 [6]. - A session on Bloomberg news and media tools to gain market insights is set for September 25 [7]. Group 2: Equity Market Focus - An equity analyst series focusing on stock valuation tools is scheduled for September 2 [8]. - A seminar titled "Grasping the Pulse of the Chinese Stock Market: Bloomberg Index and Quantitative Tools Guide" will take place on September 15 [12]. Group 3: Macro, Forex, and Commodity Markets - A foreign exchange specialist series will cover analysis tools for foreign exchange and derivatives on September 16 [9]. - A session on credit bond analysis tools, specifically for Chinese dollar bonds, is scheduled for September 4 [10]. Group 4: Portfolio Management - A lecture on portfolio creation and analysis is planned for September 9 [12].