风电行业低价竞争态势缓解
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明阳智能(601615):盈利水平修复可期,新技术和海风整机出海值得期待
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-31 09:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation of stock performance that will exceed market performance by 10% to 20% over the next six months [1][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue has shown significant growth, with a 45.33% year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by a substantial rise in wind turbine shipments. However, profitability remains under pressure due to previous intense price competition [4][7]. - The company has achieved a notable increase in wind turbine sales, with a total of 8.1 GW sold in the first half of 2025, representing a 102.04% year-on-year growth. The backlog of orders stands at 46.42 GW, indicating strong future sales potential [7][8]. - The successful ignition of the "Jupiter One," a 30 MW pure hydrogen gas turbine, marks a significant technological advancement for the company, which is also actively pursuing international markets for offshore wind turbines [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 171.43 billion yuan, a 45.33% increase year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.68% to 6.10 billion yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 12.68% to 4.85 billion yuan [4][7]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 16.20 billion, 26.04 billion, and 35.24 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting an expected recovery in profitability [8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is experiencing a recovery in the wind turbine business, with expectations for improved profitability as the competitive pricing environment stabilizes [7][8]. - The company is expanding its international presence, particularly in offshore wind markets, and has established a cooperation intention with AP Power in the Philippines [7][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the company's profitability due to stabilizing prices in the wind turbine sector and the potential of new technologies and international market expansion [7][8].