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牛市冲,熊市逃?是时候认清你的风险画像了
雪球· 2025-08-06 13:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of understanding risk tolerance and risk profile in investment decisions, especially in the context of changing market conditions and personal investment goals [5][27]. Summary by Sections Risk Tolerance - Risk tolerance is defined as the level of risk an individual can psychologically and emotionally accept, particularly in terms of account declines and short-term losses [9][10]. - FinaMetrica's research indicates that risk tolerance is a relatively stable personality trait, not significantly affected by market conditions, as evidenced by consistent scores from 2008 to 2020 despite various market crises [10][11]. Risk Profile - The concept of risk profile is introduced as a comprehensive assessment of how much risk an individual is willing and able to take based on specific investment goals [13]. - Risk profiles are influenced by three main factors: investment goals (e.g., buying a house, retirement), the realistic conditions needed to achieve these goals (e.g., financial status, cash flow), and individual personality traits (e.g., risk tolerance, emotional resilience) [15]. Determining Risk Profile - To determine an appropriate risk profile, investors should balance goal-driven factors (e.g., required returns, timelines) with personality-driven factors (e.g., risk tolerance) [18][20]. - This involves clarifying personal identity and investment objectives, allowing for informed decision-making regarding risk [21]. Addressing Inconsistencies - The article addresses scenarios where an individual's risk tolerance and the required risk for current investment situations do not align, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies for different financial goals [24]. - It suggests managing multiple goals through separate accounts or a unified risk preference, while cautioning against high-risk investments for short-term objectives [26]. Conclusion - The article concludes that understanding personal risk and maintaining a suitable investment strategy is crucial for navigating market fluctuations, advocating for a focus on long-term goals rather than short-term market movements [28][30].
迈向“韧性监管”的中国范式
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-08-05 14:20
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the critical role of regulatory evolution in China's financial industry over the past 40 years, highlighting the need for a regulatory system that balances market understanding with risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Optimization of Regulatory Team - The selection of regulatory personnel is crucial for the healthy development of capital markets, focusing on professional qualifications and market-oriented recruitment [1]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the qualification requirements for regulatory personnel, mandating three years of frontline experience and one year in compliance for key positions [1]. - Local pilot programs are being implemented to recruit high-end talent, with competitive compensation and dynamic management based on performance [1]. Group 2: Training and Development - A dual approach of practical training and real-time engagement is being adopted, including the establishment of a "regulatory flying squad" for on-site inspections of high-risk institutions [2]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has developed a "digital twin bank" system to simulate extreme scenarios for training regulatory personnel, identifying 147 institutional loopholes in 12 rounds of exercises [2]. Group 3: Exit Mechanisms - A national "grey list" has been established for regulatory personnel responsible for significant misjudgments, prohibiting them from holding positions in financial management for five years [2]. Group 4: Upgrading Regulatory Methodology - The introduction of a "panoramic view" system allows for comprehensive oversight of financial holding companies, significantly improving the identification of fraudulent activities [3]. - A dynamic boundary mechanism has been adopted in Zhejiang, categorizing new products into green, yellow, and red zones based on risk levels, with 38 projects monitored in 2024 [3]. - The "first violation exemption" policy allows institutions to avoid penalties for minor infractions if they rectify issues within a specified timeframe [3]. Group 5: Regulatory and Development Balance - The design of the digital RMB incorporates "controllable anonymity" to protect privacy while ensuring compliance with anti-money laundering standards [4]. - From 2017 to 2024, China's green credit balance increased from 8 trillion to 34 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 23%, while maintaining a low non-performing loan rate of 0.4% [5]. - Regulatory measures have successfully internalized externalities, leading to a positive cycle of reduced financing costs and business expansion for Chinese institutions [5]. Group 6: Future Directions - The next steps in regulatory reform include enhancing the professional capabilities of regulatory teams, shifting from rule-driven to risk-based approaches, and integrating regulatory, industry, market, and social feedback systems [5][6].