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今年最值得收藏的投资指南:重温《投资中最重要的事》50条经典法则
雪球· 2025-08-24 13:30
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 最近两周上证指数持续上涨,市场情绪也比较热,很多人都抱着害怕错过的心态开始更激进的涌 入市场,生怕慢人一步。在这个看似遍地黄金的时刻,霍华德·马克斯《投资中最重要的事》中的 智慧犹如一剂清醒剂,提醒我们: 市场大涨时,最危险的不是错过机会,而是忘记风险 。 本文整理霍华德·马克斯投资智慧的50条精华,让我们在狂热市场中保持清醒,把握投资本质。 01 理解市场本质:周期永恒,人性不变 第二层思维法则:当大多数人想"市场大涨,必须跟进"时,你需要思考:"大涨已经反映了多少乐 观预期?这种乐观是否已经过度?" 市场有效性局限:当前的市场定价真的合理吗?还是已经被群体情绪推高到非理性区域? 钟摆理论精髓:市场情绪就像钟摆,在乐观与悲观间摆动,很少停留在理性中点。当前钟摆正摆 向乐观极端。 周期必然性认知:树不会长到天上,市场也不会只涨不跌。牛市之后必有熊市,这是亘古不变的 规律。 识别市场位置:比预测未来更重要的是认清现在。当前市场处于周期的哪个位置?是早期、中期 还是晚期? 风险源头洞察:高风险主要来自购买价格过高的资产,而非资产本身质量。 感知风险与真实风险:当人人感觉风险很 ...
在牛市里反思:大多数人的亏钱,其实输在路径依赖
雪球· 2025-08-24 00:01
以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ,作者思哲 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略创始人,全球资产配置,为你做好家庭投资框架,穿越牛熊 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 综合自作者:思哲与创富 来源:雪球 我这些年的投资思路一直在调整进化,尤其这几年变化颇大。 从早期沉在A股基金领域研究(12年-22年),再到开始美股ETF分散布局(23年-23年末),全球股市ETF分散换车套利。 以及23年末到现在的资产配置结构:全天候,股、债、商综合配置+换车套利增强,收益稳定的前提下,波动更小,风险更低。 正是因为随着本金的增长,导致我对于风险收益比的要求也越来越高,其实我自己迈出的每一步,并不是简单地押注趋势或者追涨杀跌,而是向着 资产配置更优解的方向出发。 包括我最新的家庭资产梳理表,如果从18年更新到现在,细心的人也会发现有很多进化的点。很多人也表示,觉得投资要专精一个领域才会出成 绩,但在A股这种环境之下,我认为灵活变通比专精显然重要得多。 资产配置看似简单,实际门槛一点都不低,设定一个自上而下的宏观框架模型,先有投资纪律,任何行 ...
我眼中的牛市和熊市
雪球· 2025-08-23 03:34
有人和我讲牛市行情来了要怎么样怎么样选股,比如2014年的牛市,垃圾股满天飞,后面到银行,券商,最后到大蓝筹,然后垃圾股开始跌,大 蓝筹还是上涨的,但我自己思考了一下不管是牛市,熊市我选择股票的投资逻辑还是一样的,没有什么变化。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 金哥777 来源:雪球 最近大盘越来越强,成交量越来越大,很多垃圾股暴涨,连洋河中报暴雷后股价还可以大涨,以前会认为有一两个跌停,亏得越多的公司股价反而 会暴涨,这难道是牛市来了嘛? 以前我认为买股票就是买公司的一小部分股权,就是合伙做生意,然后就想合伙做生意肯定想多分红,成长好也是为了以后高分红。但最近几年发 现这些常识性的东西,既然是属于另类,异类,可能整个市场占比不到百分之5,那百分之5认真研究公司基本面,了解商业模式,了解财务数据 的人可能只有那百分之5的十分之一,所以这市场能长期赚钱的人少之又少,我希望我自己努力成为那百分之1,目前我重仓的两个公司是藏格矿 业和紫金矿业。 关于藏格矿业的投资逻辑从2023年9月份开始买入到现在应该没什么变化,但 ...
3800点!按捺不住躁动的心,牛市里到底要不要择时?
雪球· 2025-08-23 00:01
以下文章来源于微积分量化价投 ,作者微积分量化价投 微积分量化价投 . 专业,全面,深度,客观的研究,传递投资价值 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:微积分量化价投 来源:雪球 "多元配置策略组合,需要择时吗?" 这句看似简单的提问,背后承载着每一位投资者都曾经历的内心交战:一边是市场波动带来的恐惧,想"落袋为安";另一边是对踏空的焦虑, 想"再多赚一点"。对于股票这类高弹性资产,这种情绪尤为普遍。 但当我们面对一个已经通过资产配置降低了波动的"多元资产组合"时,问题似乎变得更加复杂:我们是否还需要用"择时"这把手术刀,对这个本已 相对稳健的系统进行干预? 今天,我们不谈复杂的模型,不给"万能公式",只想和你一起,像一位老朋友那样,拨开"择时"的迷雾,探寻其背后的投资哲学。 战略上的思考 一、颠覆认知:择时不谈对错,只论匹配 在我们深入之前,必须建立一个核心认知: 择时,本质上不是一个"是非题",而是一个"匹配题" 。它考验的,是"资产的性格"与"投资者的能 力"这两者之间,能否达成和谐的统一。 1. 先看资产的" ...
一个穿越牛熊老股民,总结出的投资精华!看完少走10年弯路!
雪球· 2025-08-22 00:00
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者:管我财 来源:雪球 @管我财 是雪球人气用户, 资深投资研究达人, 相信低估逆向平均赢的价值投资观。在股市驰骋10余年,穿越牛熊。 以下是其投资观点总结分享: 底部顶部识别 1. 一大片的公司股东不断增持+公司回购+私有化收购 , 一般都是底 。 即便是08年底最疯狂的时刻 , 也就三四十家公司回购而已 。 相信价值 吧 ! 8. 多数的傻瓜决定顶部 , 少数的傻瓜决定㡳部 , 成交量大幅减少甚至干涸 , 是最有力的见底的指标 。 罗伯逊致投资人的信当中提出五个特征来说明市场触底 1. 回购占已发行股本的10% , 占流通股的16% 。 6. 这样的观察是价值投资者们值得学习的 , 全面而细致的市场观察 。 2. 当你发现满街都是便宜货 , 实在太多选择 , 不知道该买哪些时 , 基本上你选对时了 。 3. 港股里 , 成交量低迷时往往才是真正的底 , 都跌到没什么人想卖了 。 4. 别人悲观时你必须悲观 , 别人绝望时你才可以贪婪 ; 别人乐观时你必须比任何人更乐观 , 别人贪婪 ...
突发!多只高位股跳水,3倍大牛股下杀12%!银行股却逆市拉升,市场风格要切换了吗?
雪球· 2025-08-21 08:10
↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 市场全天震荡调整 , 三大指数涨跌不一 。 截至收盘 , 沪指涨0.13% , 深成指跌0.06% , 创业板指跌0.47% 。 沪深两市全天成交额2.42万亿 , 较上个交易日放量158亿 , 成交额连续7个交易日超2万亿 。 盘面上 , 个股跌多涨少 , 全市场超3000只个股下跌 。 油气 、 数字货币 、 美容护理 、 银行等板块涨幅居前 , 稀土永磁 、 PEEK材料 、 液 冷服务器 、 CPO等板块跌幅居前 。 午后,高位股集体大跌 , 飞龙股份等多股跌停,银行股逆势走强 , 农业银行 、 邮储银行双双创历史新高 。风格要切换了吗? 01 多只热门股跳水大跌 银行逆市走强 午后,多只前期热门股跳水大跌,东芯股份大跌超12%,此前该股近两个月涨幅超270%。 此外,联环药业跌停, 中电鑫龙跌停、 飞龙股份跌停、 金田股份跌停、 申联生物跌近12%、 赛诺医疗跌超8%, 卧龙电驱跌停、 川润股份跌 停、 广生堂大跌7%等。 | 飞龙股份 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002536 已收盘08-21 15:04:54 北京 ...
牛市来了,还适合买宽基指数吗?
雪球· 2025-08-20 08:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and considerations of identifying "mainline sectors" during a bull market, suggesting that broad-based indices may be a more pragmatic choice for most investors [4][6][18]. Group 1: Mainline Investment Temptation and Identification Challenges - In bull markets, mainline sectors often yield significant excess returns, with data showing that in 2020, the top three industry indices had returns of 190.96%, 138.41%, and 135.19%, while the CSI 300 index only rose by about 27.21% [6][7]. - The difficulty of accurately identifying mainline sectors beforehand is highlighted, as many investors may only realize what the mainline was after the market has moved [8][10]. Group 2: Real Obstacles in Mainline Identification - Three main obstacles to identifying mainline sectors are discussed: 1. Extreme internal differentiation within industries complicates stock selection, as seen in the 2025 market where the ground equipment sector had a 103.73% annual increase, but individual stocks within the sector varied significantly in performance [10]. 2. The acceleration of valuation bubbles poses greater risks than broad indices, as high valuations can lead to significant corrections if industry progress does not meet expectations [10][11]. 3. Behavioral biases can interfere with investment discipline, leading to premature profit-taking or overconfidence, which can result in substantial losses [11]. Group 3: Unique Value of Broad-Based Indices - Broad-based indices offer unique advantages in risk diversification, stable returns, and operational convenience. They provide a better risk-return ratio through cross-industry and cross-market capitalization allocation [12][13]. - Historical data shows that broad-based indices like the CSI 300 had significantly lower maximum drawdowns compared to industry indices during bull and bear markets [13][15]. - The operational convenience of broad-based indices is enhanced by a well-established ecosystem of investment tools, such as ETFs, which lower the barriers for non-professional investors [16]. Group 4: Conclusion and Strategy - The article concludes that while broad-based indices may not outperform leading mainline sectors, they are often a better choice for ordinary investors due to their ability to mitigate emotional trading and provide stable returns [18][19]. - A suggested investment strategy for ordinary investors is the "core-satellite" approach, allocating 60%-80% of the portfolio to broad-based ETFs to capture market beta, while using 20%-40% for selective participation in mainline sectors to manage risk exposure [19].
基金终于回本了!继续拿着会不会再次被套牢?一文告诉你,千万别再犯同样的错误!
雪球· 2025-08-19 13:00
风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ,作者陪你聊基金的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar,与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"! ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者: 晨星投资说 来源:雪球 基金终于回本了! 随着沪指突破前期高点,不少朋友也在苦熬几年后终于等来了"解套"时刻。 在松一口气的同时,一个老生常谈的问题也随之而来:现在该怎么办?继续拿着会不会再次被套? 其实,基金回本之际,也正是我们反思和调整持仓的最佳时机。 今天我们就换一个角度,聊聊如何通过两个问题判断基金在组合中的角色,带你检查手里的持仓,跳出反复被套的"怪圈"。 01 被忽视的两个关键问题 我们经常用"波动"来衡量风险,以"战胜市场"来定义投资成功。但在现实投资时,我们所面对的情况要复杂得多。 每个人的投资目标都不一样:有人为了养老攒钱,有人为了孩子上学,有人想凑齐房子首付,有人只是想赚点旅行基金…… 这些目标的重要性不同,需要用钱的时间也不同。所以,比起波动, 我们真正面临的投资风险是 —— 需要用钱的时候,账 ...
别人牛市都赚麻了,为什么我的账户还在装死?
雪球· 2025-08-18 13:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the common concerns of investors during a bull market, particularly regarding the performance of their holdings and the need for alignment with their risk preferences [3][4]. Group 1: Portfolio Assessment - Investors should regularly review their portfolio structure to ensure it aligns with their true risk tolerance, especially during significant market changes [4]. - A mismatch between current market conditions and the investor's portfolio style can lead to underperformance, which is normal in a bull market [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Investors need to clarify their goals: whether they seek quick profits or stable long-term returns, as this will influence their decision to adjust their holdings [9]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear investment strategy and avoiding emotional trading, especially during volatile market conditions [10][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article highlights that not all assets will rise during a bull market, and structural market conditions often dictate performance rather than a general uptrend [10][11]. - It is crucial for investors to remain calm and not be swayed by the performance of others, as this can lead to poor decision-making [10][12]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The focus should be on avoiding significant losses during bear markets rather than chasing short-term gains in bull markets [11]. - A well-diversified portfolio should be evaluated for its resilience and stability, rather than solely on immediate performance [13][14].
站上3700点,该加仓还是减仓?
雪球· 2025-08-18 08:04
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the 3700-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting it is a critical psychological barrier that influences market volatility and investor sentiment [4][6][11]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3731 points during the bull market from 2019 to 2021, and the current level of 3696.77 points is only 0.93% lower than that peak [4]. - Historical attempts to break through the 3700-point level have resulted in significant market fluctuations, indicating a strong resistance at this level [9]. - The market's behavior around the 3700-point mark reflects a cautious attitude among investors, who are wary of potential downturns [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that whether to increase or decrease positions at the 3700-point level depends on individual market outlooks; those believing it is the start of a new bull market should consider adding positions, while those seeing it as a peak should reduce exposure [5][8]. - Establishing an investment strategy that accommodates high volatility is crucial, with a recommended approach being a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income [11][15]. - A half-position strategy (50% equities and 50% fixed income) is proposed as a way to manage risk and opportunity effectively, allowing for adjustments based on market movements [14][15]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The article advocates for a dynamic rebalancing approach, suggesting that when equity exposure exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 55%), investors should reduce their positions to maintain balance [16][18]. - The author has implemented this strategy multiple times, currently holding a ratio of 53.60% equities to 46.40% fixed income, indicating a proactive approach to managing portfolio risk [20]. - The goal of dynamic rebalancing is not necessarily to enhance returns but to reduce volatility and maintain investor comfort [21][22].