风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 薛洪言 来源：雪球 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 多元化的本质是对未知的敬畏——既然无法确定明天哪个板块会涨，那就不要把全部希望押注在单一方向上。这种防守，守的是不犯致命错误。 今日复盘：地缘风暴下的极致分化 3月3日，A股市场呈现极端分化格局。截至收盘，上证指数收跌1.43%，创业板指跌2.57%，两市成交金额31295亿元，环比放量1088亿元。 盘面上，油气板块掀起涨停潮，三桶油领衔30余只个股封死涨停；与此同时，近4800只个股下跌，国防军工跌6.74%，有色金属跌5.61%，电子跌 5.30%，计算机、传媒等板块跌幅均超4%。亚太市场同样惨淡，日经225指数跌3.06%，韩国综合指数暴跌7.24%。 驱动这轮分化的核心变量是霍尔木兹海峡局势升级——这条承担全球五分之一原油运输的海上咽喉一旦被封锁，中东产油国连续生产25天后将被 迫停产，国际油价应声大涨，布伦特原油一度冲上82美元。 投资的核心：风险识别与管理 面对今日这般极致的市场分化，投资者最容易产生的冲动是：我该如何抓住下一个油气板块？我怎样才 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that a fulfilling life is built on four essential pillars: earning money, managing finances, managing desires, and managing emotions [5][18]. Group 2 Earning Money - Earning money is considered the most important aspect of life, and it should ideally align with personal interests to transform work into a path of self-fulfillment [7][8]. - Diversifying income sources is crucial; having a side job can provide a safety net and opportunities for growth when primary income sources decline [8]. Managing Finances - Financial management is not just about investing but primarily about saving, especially during years of increased income [10][11]. - The first goal of financial management is to save money, as income distribution is often uneven throughout a person's life [10]. - Wealth preservation and growth come second, requiring a foundation of savings before considering investments [11]. Managing Desires - Managing desires is essential for happiness, as unchecked desires can lead to dissatisfaction [12][13]. - Distinguishing between needs and wants is critical; true happiness comes from balancing desires with one's financial capabilities [13][14]. Managing Emotions - Emotional management is vital for maintaining happiness, as it helps individuals recover from negative experiences [15][16]. - Key steps in emotional management include awareness, acceptance, and transformation of negative emotions into positive actions [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the feasibility of the "permanent holding" investment strategy, originally proposed by Warren Buffett, and highlights the challenges and risks associated with it, particularly through the analysis of Buffett's investments in companies like Coca-Cola, which has been the only one to maintain its status as a permanent holding [3][5]. Group 1: Analysis of Permanent Holding - Buffett's claim of permanent holding was primarily associated with three companies: Metropolitan, Washington Post, and Coca-Cola, with only Coca-Cola still being held today [3]. - The decline of the competitive advantages (moats) of the first two companies led to their eventual sale or acquisition, indicating that the permanence of a company's moat is likely a rare occurrence [3][4]. - Coca-Cola's stock experienced a tenfold increase over ten years, but Buffett faced a decade of stagnation due to high valuation, illustrating the risks of adhering to a permanent holding strategy [4][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of "City Earnings Ratio" (市赚率), which is calculated as the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the return on equity, providing a framework for evaluating investment opportunities [4]. - The City Earnings Ratio can help identify undervalued stocks during bear markets and signal overvaluation during bull markets, making it a useful tool for investors in the Chinese stock market, particularly for companies like Kweichow Moutai [6][7]. - The experience of Buffett with Coca-Cola and the subsequent stagnation serves as a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of not solely relying on the permanent holding philosophy [5][6].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, the Nasdaq down 0.22%, and the S&P 500 up 0.05%. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose approximately 1.2%. All three indices recorded declines over the past week, with the Nasdaq showing the largest drop, indicating cautious market sentiment [1]. - Most popular tech stocks declined, with Nvidia and Apple dropping over 2%, and Google, Meta, and Broadcom falling over 1%. Investor concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence on traditional industries have heightened risk-averse sentiment [3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI year-on-year decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, while the core CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021. The core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above December's 0.2% increase [9][10]. - Following the CPI report, traders increased their expectations for interest rate cuts this year, with a 50% chance of three cuts by year-end. The probability of a cut in April is 30%, and over 80% for June [10]. Company-Specific News - Meituan issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 233 billion to RMB 243 billion for the fiscal year 2025, a stark contrast to a net profit of RMB 358.08 billion in 2024. This represents a significant reversal of nearly RMB 600 billion [16][18]. - The core reason for Meituan's drastic performance change is the profit collapse in its most profitable segment, "core local business," which is expected to incur an operating loss of RMB 68 billion to RMB 70 billion in 2025, compared to an operating profit of RMB 524.15 billion in 2024. This is attributed to unprecedented competition in the industry and strategic increases in ecosystem investments [18][20]. - Meituan plans to increase investments in marketing, rider incentives, and operational efficiency to counteract the losses, while also expanding its overseas business [20]. Market Sentiment and Trends - The Hang Seng Tech Index has shown weakness, declining 6.26% since February, influenced by liquidity shocks. Analysts suggest that the fundamentals and bullish logic for the Hong Kong tech sector remain unchanged [21]. - The performance of the Hang Seng Tech Index in February may be driven by macroeconomic data, policy pricing, and earnings verification, with U.S. inflation and employment data being key factors affecting valuation elasticity in Hong Kong tech stocks [21].

Core Viewpoint - The essence of value investing is misunderstood; it revolves around the concept of "floating capital," utilizing dividends from quality companies for capital allocation, which can be used for both investment and speculation [2] Group 1 - The goal of achieving dividend freedom equates to investment freedom, determined by the number of shares held and the purchase price [2] - The strategy emphasizes being a net buyer until the target number of shares is reached, with a focus on acquiring shares at lower prices [2] - Price fluctuations are deemed irrelevant as long as the company's fundamentals remain intact; the significance of price is only at the time of purchase [2] Group 2 - The investment approach advocates for a diversified portfolio rather than focusing on individual stocks, with a preference for a balanced allocation among three key assets: "old wine cellar," "business hall," and "hydropower station" [3] - The strategy allows for temporary concentration in a single asset if significant opportunities arise before achieving overall investment goals [3] - The investment philosophy stresses the importance of understanding the essence of investments and the long-term journey towards wealth freedom [3] Group 3 - The "Snowball Three-Point Method" promotes long-term investment and asset allocation through diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve diversified investment returns and risk mitigation [4]

以下文章来源于范范爱养基 ，作者范范 范范爱养基 . 专注基金投资分享，说人话，不拽词！不保证说的都对，但都是当下我最最真实的想法。（雪球号同名） ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 范范爱养基 来源：雪球 整理到excel表格中 ， 便于我们对当前持仓更一目了然 ， 心里有数 ： 前两天有朋友在我之前文章 下留言 ， 表示 不知道该怎么用调仓功能进行再平衡 。 他算是提醒我了~ 去年6月我首次用雪球三分法创建完组合后 ， 就很久没有管过了 。 趁新年伊始 ， 正好进行一次 " 再平衡 " 。 写这篇文章时 ， 我刚在雪球三分法完成组合的再平衡操作 。 只想说 ： 简直不要太方便 ！ 操作真的非常简单 ， 省了很多麻烦事 。 今天就以我自己的真实持仓为例 ， 给大家展示具体怎么操作 。 第一步 ： 梳理当前基金和大类资产持仓情况 打开雪球三分法后 ， 可以看到目前所有持仓基金的金额和盈亏情况 ： | 基金子账户 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 基金 按最近交易▼ | 日收益 | 持有收益 | ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 张翼轸 来源：雪球 春节前串台播客，聊了很多关于 4000 点之上的心理按摩。其实到了这个点位，我个人是处于且战且退的状态。我不去奢望这一波一定能走出长 牛，因为我是一个不相信 "这一次不一样" 的人。 在那次聊天中，我提到了好莱坞的一部喜剧电影，亚当・桑德勒演的《人生遥控器》。电影里有一个遥控器，一按就可以快进到未来。那部片子其 实是喜剧外壳下的悲剧，但对我们做投资的人来说，它提供了一个极佳的思想实验。 没人能跳过的三年熊市 很多时候我就在想，如果我们手里真的有这么一个遥控器，投资这事儿其实非常好做。 大家都说 A 股是 "熊三年，牛三年"。如果我有遥控器，我在牛市顶点按一下暂停键离场，然后按快进键把这三年的熊市直接跳过，等到那个无人 问津的底部我再按播放键买回来。你会发现中国的股市其实就这么好做，这简直是完美的投资体验。 可现实最残酷的地方就在于，我们没有这个遥控器。 熊市的那三年阴跌，你是要用肉身一天一天去扛的。在这个漫长的过程里，你还要面对无数的不确定性。 回想一下，在 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日震荡整理，截止收盘，沪指涨0.13%，收报4128.37点；深证成指涨0.02%，收报14210.63点；创业板指跌0.37%，收报3320.54点。 沪深京三市成交额21249亿，较昨日缩量1455亿。 行业板块涨跌互现，文化传媒、游戏、船舶制造、教育、通信服务板块涨幅居前，贵金属、光伏设备、珠宝首饰、能源金属、商业百货板块跌幅居 前。 消息面上，2月9日，2026年春节档影片正式开启预售，根据灯塔专业版数据，截至今日11时15分，2026年春节档新片总票房（含点映及预售）达 9064万元。 浙商证券指出，本次春节档优质影片供给充足，尽管单片票房难以超越《哪吒2》，但在优质片单加持下，春节档票房表现可期。 02 游戏板块大涨！ AI应用的另一重要板块是游戏，恺英网络涨幅居前，星辉娱乐、浙数文化涨幅均接近7%，掌趣科技、姚记科技、完美世界等个股跟涨，板块内部呈 现普涨格局。 个股方面，上涨股票数量接近2200只，逾70只股票涨停。文化传媒板块掀涨停潮，读客文化、捷成股份、中文在线、荣信文化、幸福蓝海、光线传 媒20cm涨停。 Ai应用概念持续活跃！ 受Se ...

以下文章来源于莱言维语 ，作者莱言维语 莱言维语 . 不定期分享对于投资的一些碎碎念 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：莱言维语 来源：雪球 大多数人初入市场时 ， 都默认一个前提 ： 交易=预测 。 买股票前 ， 要有理由 ， 比如公司基本面好 、 国家政策利好 、 行业热点正热 ， 或者干脆我觉得要涨 。 预测准确率 ， 仿佛是交易者能力的直接体现 。 那么下面用一个经典的抛硬币游戏来打比方 ， 想象你和Nick玩游戏 ： 硬币正面 ， 你赢100元 ； 背面 ， 你亏50元 。 正反概率各50% ， 你 会参加吗 ？ 近期与朋友Nick进行了一期访谈栏目 ，文章不打算复述全部内容，只从我个人感兴趣的角度切入， 本文会从两个命题展开 ： 第一 ， 不预测 ， 真的能做好交易吗 ？ 第二 ， 分散投资到底是一种保守策略 ， 还是一种结构性的红利 ？ 我们一块一块来拆 。 01 不预测 ， 能否做好交易 ？ 一开场就抛出一个极具挑战性的问题 。 如果你彻底放弃预测 ， 你还能不能把交易做好 ？ 答案显然是肯定的 。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations last week, particularly in precious metals, technology stocks, and US stocks [4] - The Hang Seng Tech Index has entered a technical bear market, with a decline of -21.56% from its recent high of 6715.46 points to a low of 5267.63 points [4] Group 2: Index Valuation - Major broad-based indices are generally at normal or higher valuation levels, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 at below 50 degrees, indicating low relative valuation [7] - The Hang Seng Index (82.1 degrees), Sci-Tech 50 (82.2 degrees), and State-Owned Enterprises Index (82.7 degrees) are at higher valuation levels, suggesting caution in investment decisions [7] - The overall market represented by the CSI All A is at 62.3 degrees, indicating limited low-valuation opportunities [7] Group 3: Global Index Valuation - Compared to domestic indices, global broad-based indices are at higher valuation levels, with major indices in the US, UK, Germany, and Japan also showing elevated valuations [9] - The high valuations in global markets may lead to increased volatility with any external disturbances [9] Group 4: Dividend Indices - The CSI Dividend Index has a PE ratio around 10 and a dividend yield of 4.89%, which is historically low, indicating a need to wait for better opportunities [11] - The dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks remains higher than that of A-shares, influenced by market factors and tax considerations [12] Group 5: Strategy Indices - Among strategy indices, the Dividend Quality index is currently undervalued, while the 300 Value and 50 Fundamentals indices are relatively low [13] - The AH strategy, which involves arbitrage between A and H shares, is currently at a historically high valuation level [14] Group 6: Industry Indices - The pharmaceutical and consumer sectors are currently at lower valuation levels, with leading consumer indices still undervalued despite some recent rebounds [15] - The technology sector, represented by tech leaders and the All-Information Index, is at historically high valuation levels, driven by advancements in AI and cloud computing [18] Group 7: Other Indices - The agricultural sector, represented by indices like the CSI Livestock and CSI Agriculture, is at a low valuation level, reflecting its status as a "necessity consumer goods" sector [20] - The demand in the agricultural sector is relatively stable, which presents both advantages and limitations in terms of elasticity [21]