证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 非银行金融 美联储降息与元首通话共振，非银金融板块有望重拾升势-非银周观 点 海外科技映射、美国降息等影响，市场量能、走势波动较大，金融板块陷入 调整。我们判断，宏大叙事、国内 8月经济数据不及预期、美联储降息及市 场流动性充沛或是驱动市场走强的关键因素，两融波动新高，8 月非银存款 继续增加，券商为代表的非银金融震荡调整后有望呈现上行走势。交易节奏 而言，两国领导人再次通话、经济数据走弱、海外货币宽松下的流动性驱动 市场走强的趋势或有望延续，可能要重点聚焦关注贸易摩擦影响、内部问题、 居民存款搬家持续效应及美国经济可能衰退引发降息的效应，中期具体或要 看包括四中全会等重磅会议。需要高度重视券商及金融 IT 板块走强趋势，并 购线建议重点关注以国联民生为代表个股；具有估值扩张空间的公司，推荐 关注综合能力强、风险资本指标优化、受益 ETF 发展的东方证券、华泰证券 等；同时从赔率弹性角度，建议继续关注布局金融 IT 板块，建议重点关注同 花顺、九方智投（中报股东净利润 8.65 亿元，子公司方德证券在港展业；控 股旗下九方智擎入驻"模速空间"，抢滩 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, in line with market expectations, marking the first rate cut in 9 months[2] - The dot plot indicates a total of 3 rate cuts expected by the end of the year, with a slight upward adjustment in economic forecasts[2] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-mitigating" measure, suggesting a neutral overall tone from the Fed[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major asset prices exhibited a V-shaped reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 4.09%, and the dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.0[4] - Market expectations for further rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with an approximately 80% probability for cuts in October and December[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Fed's GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were slightly upgraded, with 2025's GDP growth now projected at 1.6% compared to the previous 1.4%[3] - Unemployment rate predictions for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered, while inflation forecasts for 2026 were adjusted upward[3] - There is a noted discrepancy between the Fed's emphasis on employment risks and its optimistic economic forecasts, which is unusual[3] Group 4: Implications for Domestic Policy - The Fed's rate cut opens up space for further monetary easing in China, with an increased likelihood of domestic rate cuts in Q4[8] - The synchronization of monetary policy cycles between the U.S. and China may alleviate exchange rate pressures on China's monetary easing[9] - The pace and extent of future rate cuts in China will depend on domestic economic performance indicators[9]