若美联储鹰派降息会如何？20251208 摘要 美国宏观经济现分裂信号，服务业 PMI 扩张与制造业 PMI 收缩并存，就 业数据喜忧参半，招聘放缓与初请失业金人数下降同时发生，预示经济 前景不明朗，或加大股票市场波动。 港股受美联储降息预期影响有限，市场已提前消化。中央经济工作会议 若无超预期内容，投资者态度将保持中性。长期看，AI 科技龙头估值合 理，但需关注资金启动意愿和新的催化因素。 预计 2026 年一季度港股行情较好，受益于政策开门红效应和基本面 EPS 回升。本地地产股和周期股对 EPS 贡献增加，但资金配置尚未完全 启动，海外风险因素犹存，操作难度依然较大。 12 月 19 日央行加息可能导致日元短期升值，引发日元套利交易平仓， 对全球金融市场产生冲击，尤其需要关注对美股和港股的潜在影响，以 及日本国债收益率的表现。 对 2026 年港股市场展望，美联储降息次数是关键非共识点。预计降息 次数可能少于市场预期，降息周期或在下半年进入后半程，可能导致市 场波动和交易风格转变。 目前港股处于一个相对偏左的位置，不论是鸽派还是鹰派的美联储降息，对港 股反弹力度有限，因为市场已经提前消化了这一信息。此外 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Core Viewpoint - The monetary policy of Canada is significantly influenced by external financial conditions and trade cycles, particularly those of the United States, leading to a historical pattern of synchronization and occasional divergence in policy rates between the two countries [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Cycle Divergence Drivers - The divergence in monetary policy between Canada and the U.S. can be categorized into two main drivers: changes in global demand for Canadian goods, particularly influenced by commodity prices, and fluctuations in global demand for the U.S. dollar, which can lead to capital flight and affect exchange rates [4][5][6]. 2. Current Policy Cycle Analysis and Future Outlook - Currently, both Canada and the U.S. are in a new round of interest rate cuts, with macroeconomic challenges being highly similar. However, Canada has shown a tendency towards more aggressive easing due to weaker economic performance and housing market pressures [24][25]. - The Bank of Canada (BoC) initiated its rate cuts in June 2024, ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, reflecting its assessment of domestic economic conditions and inflation trends [25][26]. - The BoC's policy adjustments are expected to remain closely aligned with the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly in response to external pressures such as exchange rate fluctuations and commodity price movements [29][30]. 3. Historical Context of Policy Coordination - Historical analysis shows that Canada and the U.S. have experienced periods of both high coordination and significant divergence in monetary policy, influenced by various economic conditions and external shocks [16][18][19]. - The coordination phases have typically seen Canada adjusting its policy rates in a manner that is consistent with U.S. movements, albeit often with smaller adjustments [18][19]. 4. Future Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, the BoC's capacity for further rate cuts may be limited, as current rates are near the lower bound of the neutral range. The bank's decisions will likely be heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [29][30][31].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, in line with market expectations, marking the first rate cut in 9 months[2] - The dot plot indicates a total of 3 rate cuts expected by the end of the year, with a slight upward adjustment in economic forecasts[2] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-mitigating" measure, suggesting a neutral overall tone from the Fed[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major asset prices exhibited a V-shaped reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 4.09%, and the dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.0[4] - Market expectations for further rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with an approximately 80% probability for cuts in October and December[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Fed's GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were slightly upgraded, with 2025's GDP growth now projected at 1.6% compared to the previous 1.4%[3] - Unemployment rate predictions for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered, while inflation forecasts for 2026 were adjusted upward[3] - There is a noted discrepancy between the Fed's emphasis on employment risks and its optimistic economic forecasts, which is unusual[3] Group 4: Implications for Domestic Policy - The Fed's rate cut opens up space for further monetary easing in China, with an increased likelihood of domestic rate cuts in Q4[8] - The synchronization of monetary policy cycles between the U.S. and China may alleviate exchange rate pressures on China's monetary easing[9] - The pace and extent of future rate cuts in China will depend on domestic economic performance indicators[9]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is approaching a pivotal moment in its monetary policy, potentially pausing interest rate cuts by July 2025 and possibly ending the easing cycle altogether after September, which will significantly impact the Eurozone economy and global financial dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - Since June 2024, the ECB has cut key interest rates eight times, with the last five cuts indicating a strong desire to stimulate economic growth and inflation recovery [3]. - Market expectations have cooled, with only a 5% probability of further rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, suggesting a shift towards maintaining the deposit rate at 1.75% [3]. - ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, with June inflation in the Eurozone aligning with the target at 2%, supporting the case for tightening [3][4]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - Recent ECB meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions, with most members supporting a 25 basis point cut, but some advocating for maintaining current rates due to concerns about over-stimulation [4]. - The concept of a "neutral rate" has resurfaced, with debates on whether rates have reached a neutral level or remain too accommodative [4]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The Euro has appreciated by 14% against the dollar this year, complicating the Eurozone's export competitiveness and increasing pressure on manufacturing and export-oriented businesses [6]. - Despite a decrease in inflation, the Eurozone's economic growth remains weak, with consumer demand and business investment not fully recovering to pre-pandemic levels [6]. - Structural issues in the Eurozone economy, such as labor market challenges and supply chain bottlenecks, continue to hinder economic potential [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Context - The timing of the ECB's policy adjustments is closely linked to the global macroeconomic environment, with the need to assess the spillover effects of monetary policy amid tightening global liquidity [7]. - The effectiveness of the ECB's monetary policy will also depend on the internal political situation and the degree of fiscal policy coordination within the Eurozone [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The nearing end of the ECB's easing cycle reflects both improvements in economic fundamentals and a warning of narrowing policy space [9]. - Ongoing debates within the ECB will influence the direction of monetary policy, with the Eurozone's ability to sustain recovery post-rate stabilization reliant on external stability and internal structural reforms [9]. - The transition from quantitative easing to qualitative changes in policy will be crucial for global investors and policymakers to monitor, as the ECB's balance of rates, inflation, and growth will determine the Eurozone's economic fate [9].

Group 1: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - The Euro to USD exchange rate fluctuated, currently at 1.1525, with a decline of 0.17% [1] - The Euro reached a peak of 1.1631 in the second week of June, but fell approximately 100 points to close around 1.1540 [1] - Market sentiment is influenced by trade wars and geopolitical headlines, with US-China trade negotiations being a focal point [1] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Update - The ECB decided to lower three key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June 2024 [2] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the current monetary policy cycle may be nearing its end, suggesting a shift in strategy [2] - Following the rate cut, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate are now at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [2] Group 3: Euro to USD Technical Analysis - Long-term technical indicators suggest that despite recent pullbacks, the Euro to USD pair is expected to rise [3] - The pair is trading above all bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA providing support around 1.1380 [3] - Immediate support is at 1.1470, with potential testing of the 1.1300 level before any rebound, while resistance is noted at the 1.1630 area [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to end its interest rate cuts soon as inflation and economic conditions stabilize [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - ECB Executive Board member Schnabel indicated that the current monetary policy cycle is nearing its end due to mid-term inflation stabilizing around the target [1] - Projected consumer price growth is expected to be 1.9% in 2026 and 2027, which aligns with the ECB's target range [1] Group 2: Policy Transmission - The ECB's policies have successfully led to a non-restrictive financing environment, contributing to overall stable growth prospects despite existing trade conflicts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall growth outlook remains stable despite trade conflicts, with the monetary policy cycle nearing its end [1] Economic Conditions - Medium-term inflation is stabilizing at target levels [1] - Financing conditions are no longer constrained [1] - Private consumption is supporting economic growth [1] Sector Performance - The manufacturing and construction sectors are experiencing a recovery [1] - Defense and infrastructure spending are offsetting the impact of tariffs [1] Labor Market - Wage growth is expected to slow further [1] Energy and Currency - Energy prices and the euro could fluctuate in either direction [1] - The global role of the euro is strong and may further strengthen [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, indicating a shift in the European Central Bank's approach to interest rates and financial conditions [1] Group 2 - Current financial conditions are no longer restrictive, suggesting a more accommodative environment for businesses and consumers [1]

Monetary Policy Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate down to 2.0%, a reduction of 200 basis points from its peak[1] - The ECB has revised its HICP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% and 1.6% respectively, while maintaining the 2027 forecast[1] - The ECB projects real GDP growth for the Eurozone at 0.9%, 1.1%, and 1.3% over the next three years[1] Economic Challenges - The Eurozone faces limited fiscal expansion capacity and slow effectiveness, which may exacerbate the impact of tariff frictions on its economy[2] - Exports to the U.S. accounted for only 17% of the Eurozone's total exports to non-EA20 countries, suggesting that the impact of U.S. tariffs may be manageable[2] - However, the export surplus to the U.S. has increased significantly, reaching 58.1% in March 2025, indicating a potential underestimation of tariff impacts[2] Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April 2025, decreasing by $75 billion to $87 billion, which may indicate stronger trade pressures on Europe[3] - China's exports in April exceeded expectations, suggesting that Europe is experiencing greater trade shocks due to U.S. tariffs[3] Monetary Operations in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repo operation to maintain liquidity, with a maturity of 91 days[4] - The PBOC's recent LPR cut has provided slight support to the real estate market, but new home sales in major cities have shown signs of decline[4] - A further rate cut of 10 basis points is anticipated in June to stimulate the economy amid potential export downturns[4]