2025 年 12 月 03 日 白糖：印度产量大幅增加 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政策变化，关注广西新糖报价。截至 11 月底，25 /26 榨季印度 食糖产量大幅增长。巴西 10 月上半月食糖产量同比增加 1%。巴西 10 月出口 420 万吨，同比增加 13%。中 国 10 月进口食糖 75 万吨（+21 万吨），进口糖浆和预拌粉 12 万吨（-11 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 万吨（前值 1120 万吨），消费量为 1570 万吨 （前值 1590 万吨），进口量为 500 万吨。中国糖业协会数据显示，截至 9 月底，24/25 榨季全国共生产食糖 1116 万吨（+120 万吨），全国累计销售食糖 1048 万吨（+87 万吨），累计销糖率 93.9%（下降 2.6 个百分点）。 中国海关数据显示，截至 10 月底，25/26 榨季中国累计进口食糖 75 万吨（+21 万吨）。25/26 榨季，广西糖 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - India's sugar production is expected to recover significantly in the 25/26 sugar season [1] - The global sugar supply is expected to be in a shortage situation, with a shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3] - The trend strength of sugar is -1, indicating a weak outlook [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 14.12 cents per pound, down 0.1 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5,680 yuan per ton, down 10; the futures main - contract price is 5,441 yuan per ton, down 40 [1] - The 15 - spread is 48 yuan per ton, down 2; the 59 - spread is 0 yuan per ton, up 4; the mainstream spot basis is 239 yuan per ton, up 30 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the changes in China's syrup and premix import policies [1] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, but its exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Brazil exported 3.25 million tons in September, a 16% year - on - year decrease [1] - China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, an increase of 150,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - The CAOC expects China's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, China produced 11.16 million tons of sugar, an increase of 1.2 million tons; sold 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points [2] - As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.63 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons [2] - In the 25/26 sugar season, the Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production to be around 6.7 million tons, with a lower sugar - extraction rate and unchanged sugarcane purchase prices; the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be around 2.6 million tons [2] 3.4 International Market - The ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3] - As of October 1, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushing of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 33.52 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons [3] - The ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 34.35 million tons (previous forecast: 34.9 million tons), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons [3] - In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]