马来西亚棕榈油基本面

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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250716
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 00:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is expected to continue in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, while the medium - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, causing the futures price to break below the 1000 - cent mark. However, strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soybean meal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates the market. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness continues [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports the US soybean oil futures price. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw - material soybeans and the increased demand for bio - fuels, which boosts both domestic and foreign soybean oil futures prices [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost the palm oil futures price, which also affects the domestic palm oil price. The domestic palm oil price follows the international market, but limited capital participation restricts the rebound space [9].