Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural commodity futures sector is a mix of weak - side oscillations and no clear trends in the short - to - medium term for most of the main varieties [5][6][7]. - For the short - to - medium term, the market trends of these varieties will be affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, import and supply rhythms, policies, and inventory levels [6]. 3) Summary by Variety **Soybean Meal (M)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the expectation of China resuming US soybean purchases, the far - month contracts of US soybeans fell after hitting the $11 mark. The future market trend depends on details of the Sino - US trade agreement, South American weather, and China's actual purchase rhythm. The cost - driven logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term soybean meal market, and there is a risk of decline after the futures price rebounds close to the upper limit of the oscillation range [5]. **Palm Oil (P)** - **Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The overall weakness in the oil market is due to high inventory pressure and weak demand. Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen for three consecutive days, hitting a near - four - week low. The core contradiction in the palm oil market is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand. The macro - level positive of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations cannot reverse the weak fundamentals. The short - term market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and palm oil futures prices remain under pressure [7]. **Soybean Oil (Y)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures Bean and Oil Morning Report (October 17, 2025) - Publisher: Baocheng Futures - Date: October 17, 2025 Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be weak with oscillations in the short - term and show an oscillating trend in the medium - term. This is due to multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations, international oil prices, policy uncertainties, and inventory situations [5][7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [5]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations, high near - term domestic inventory, far - term supply gap expectations, and reduced capital support lead to the short - term weakening with oscillations of soybean meal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7]. - **Reference View**: Oscillating and weakening [7]. - **Core Logic**: The continuous impact of international oil price pressure on the oil market, increased policy uncertainties in various countries, demand substitution in the oil market, and cautious market funds result in the short - term weakening with oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7]. Other Related Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating and weakening. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing country tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the soybean meal market, due to Argentina's suspension of export taxes on grains and by - products, the global supply of soybeans and by - products faces shocks. The domestic supply pressure is increasing, and concerns about short - term supply persist. With the approaching National Day holiday, market funds prefer short - term trading, and after the release of market sentiment, the market may stop falling and stabilize [5]. - In the palm oil market, the domestic import profit is in a reverse state, which restricts new purchases. There is an inventory pressure due to more arrivals in the near - month and limited downstream demand. The short - term market lacks a single driver and shows a wide - range shock [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Argentina's export tax suspension affects global supply. Domestic supply pressure is rising, and attention should be paid to arrivals in the fourth quarter. Near the National Day holiday, funds focus on short - term trading, and the market may stabilize after the release of emotions [5] - **Core Logic Summary**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Domestic import profit inversion restricts new purchases. There is inventory pressure due to more arrivals and limited demand. The short - term market is affected by policy expectations, export data, inventory changes, and neighboring oil varieties, showing a wide - range shock [7] - **Core Logic Summary**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6] 3.3 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6] - **Core Logic Summary**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - All three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are expected to be "weakly volatile" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, according to the reference views [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations affects US soybean export prospects. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectation in the domestic market remains unchanged. Short - term soybean futures prices are highly repetitive at high levels. As market sentiment weakens again, both domestic and foreign soybean futures prices decline, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures prices. Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand also play roles [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market focuses on raw material soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy expectations, and the resolution of domestic inventory pressure. Affected by the weakening of raw material soybean prices, the cost support for soybean oil futures prices weakens. US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are also influencing factors [6][7][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: International oil price fluctuations have a continuous spill - over effect on the palm oil market. As the most energy - related oil variety, palm oil futures prices are significantly affected. Although the positive trend of the palm oil industry chain remains unchanged, short - term capital outflows intensify price fluctuations. Factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also impact the price [7][8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the price trends and core logics of different agricultural commodity futures, including short - term, medium - term, and intraday views [5][6][7]. - For different futures varieties, the core logics are affected by multiple factors such as international policies, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating weakly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating weakly [5]. - **Core Logic** - Optimistic signals from China - US negotiations have led to a slight decline in the high premium of Brazilian soybeans. But before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, the high - premium pattern of Brazilian soybeans is hard to change, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. The far - month contracts still have dual support of supply and cost, and the short - term futures price fluctuates at a high level [5]. 3.2. Palm Oil (P) - **View** - Intraday view: Oscillating strongly; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Reference view: Oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic** - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures price. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the futures price fluctuates at a high level with strong support below. After continuous short - term rises, short - term capital closing positions cause the futures price to fluctuate at a high level, but the overall strong trend remains [7]. 3.3. Other Contracts - **Soybean Meal 2601**: Short - term and medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating weakly, affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Short - term strong, medium - term oscillating, intraday and reference view oscillating strongly, influenced by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **Palm 2601**: Short - term and intraday strong, medium - term oscillating, reference view oscillating strongly, affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on the oil and fat industry [2] Core View - The U.S. biofuel policy shows that the negative factors are exhausted, which is beneficial to the oil and fat industry, so it maintains a bullish view [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - **24-degree palm oil**: On August 21, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9770, 9650, and 9620 respectively, with a daily increase of 110 in all three places compared to August 20 [1] - **First-grade soybean oil**: On August 21, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8540, 8660, and 8640 respectively, with a daily increase of 30 in all three places compared to August 20 [1] - **Fourth-grade rapeseed oil**: On August 21, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9950, and 10160 respectively, remaining unchanged compared to August 20 [1] Futures Data - **Soybean-palm oil main contract price difference**: On August 21, 2025, it was -1106, an increase of 34 compared to August 20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil-soybean oil main contract price difference**: On August 21, 2025, it was 1397, a decrease of 17 compared to August 20 [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On August 21, 2025, there were 790, a decrease of 614 compared to August 20 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On August 21, 2025, there were 15310, remaining unchanged compared to August 20 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On August 21, 2025, there were 3487, remaining unchanged compared to August 20 [1] U.S. Biofuel - On the evening of the 21st, sources said that the Trump administration is expected to rule on small refineries' applications for exemption from the biofuel mandatory blending requirement as early as Friday. Additionally, it is expected to issue a supplementary regulation on the reallocation of exemption production as early as next week, which will include multiple options [1] Palm Oil - **Malaysian production**: According to SPPOMA, from August 1 - 20, the yield per unit was -2.12% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate was +0.46%, and the production was +0.3% [1] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from August 1 - 20, exports were +13.6% compared to the same period last month [1] U.S. Soybeans - **Weather**: In the next two weeks, the weather for U.S. soybeans will turn dry, which may have an adverse impact on the yield per unit, but considering the low temperature forecast and the current excellent crop conditions, the marginal impact is expected to be small [1][2] - **Production situation**: As of the week of August 17, the good and excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 68%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and the same period last year [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment of agricultural commodity futures is affected by various factors, including international policies, trade relations, and supply - demand situations of different products. Short - term price fluctuations are significant, and each product has different trends in the short, medium, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.豆粕（M） - **View**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: Trump's tweet boosted US soybean prices, while domestic soybean meal futures prices fell due to loose funds. The industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and short - term Sino - US trade relations affect market sentiment [5]. 3.2.棕榈油（P） - **View**: Intraday view is strongly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, reference view is strongly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: MPOB's report shows strong Malaysian palm oil exports and lower - than - expected inventory. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may affect export supply, causing short - term price strength [7]. 3.3. Other Related Information - For different products (such as soybean meal 2601, soybean oil 2601, palm 2509), their short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are affected by factors like import arrival rhythm, customs clearance, oil refinery operation rhythm, biofuel policies, inventory, and production and export in major producing countries [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is expected to continue in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, while the medium - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, causing the futures price to break below the 1000 - cent mark. However, strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soybean meal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates the market. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness continues [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports the US soybean oil futures price. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw - material soybeans and the increased demand for bio - fuels, which boosts both domestic and foreign soybean oil futures prices [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost the palm oil futures price, which also affects the domestic palm oil price. The domestic palm oil price follows the international market, but limited capital participation restricts the rebound space [9].