策略参考 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2601 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国生物燃料政策，美豆油 库存，国内大豆成本支撑， 供应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2601 偏强 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 生物柴油属性，马棕产量和 出口，印尼出口，主产国关税 政策，国内到港、库存，替代 需求 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震 ...

热 转 用反 400-8888-598 因 西 www.itf.com.cn tal last 但结合较低的温度预期和目前优秀的作物状况,预计边际影响较小。 美豆产情:截至8月17日当周,美国大豆优良率为68%,高于市场预期的 67%,前一周为68%。上年同期为68%。大豆开花率为95%,上一周为91%, 上年同期为94%,五年均值为95%。大豆结英率为82%,上一周为71%,上 年同期为80%,五年均值为82%。 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 42 45 48 51 - 2020 - 2021 - 2022 - 2023 - 2024 - 2025 棕榈油(华南)进口盘面利润 马来西亚棕榈油月度港口库存(万吨) 120 500 100 80 -2000 -2500 -3000 -3500 08 06 07 09 10 11 12 07 08 09 10 12 05 05 06 01 71 - 2022 = 2023 - 2024 - 2025 = 2021 = 2022 = 2023 - 2024 - 2025 美国生物燃料政策显现利空出尽,利多油脂,维持看多。 本报告中的信息 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 12 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：昨日午后美国总统特朗普的推特表态提振美豆，美豆期价快速反弹至 1000 美分关口上方，国 内豆粕期价在资金松动拖累下出现快速回落。产业链环境并未出现变化，市场交易以预期变化为主。短期 中美贸易关系变化持续影响市场情绪，豆粕期价动荡加剧。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：棕榈油(P) 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is expected to continue in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, while the medium - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, causing the futures price to break below the 1000 - cent mark. However, strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soybean meal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates the market. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness continues [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports the US soybean oil futures price. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw - material soybeans and the increased demand for bio - fuels, which boosts both domestic and foreign soybean oil futures prices [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost the palm oil futures price, which also affects the domestic palm oil price. The domestic palm oil price follows the international market, but limited capital participation restricts the rebound space [9].

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The center of the oil and fat market has been rising, driven by the favorable US biofuel policy. The continuous increase in the position of the palm oil contract P09 has led to a significant upward movement. However, the report believes that the upward space of palm oil is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the resistance level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Quotation Information**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes are San Cai 09 + 60 and Yi Cai 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150 for first - grade soybean oil, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In the South China market, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased in position and rose. Only the P09 contract increased its position by more than 70,000 lots and moved strongly upward. The US biofuel policy has driven the upward movement of the oil and fat market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpected production reduction and strong exports. The US has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesia and a 25% tariff on Malaysia, which may reduce Indonesia's exports and theoretically benefit the Malaysian market [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory, Production, and Export Forecasts**: Reuters' survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, with a production of 1.7 million tons (a 4.04% month - on - month decrease) and exports of 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's forecast data shows a production of 1.74 million tons, exports of 1.44 million tons, and an inventory of 2 million tons in June [8]. - **Production Details**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) states that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.69 million tons, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.68% month - on - month, while that in Sabah decreased by 11.95% and in Sarawak decreased by 8.98%. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.24% month - on - month [8]. - **Export Data**: The shipping survey agency SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an 11.7% increase from May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous month. ITS reported exports of 1.382 million tons (a 4.7% increase), and AmSpec reported 1.286 million tons (a 4.5% increase) [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil and fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spreads of palm oil contracts (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1), and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are supported by a decline in production in Southeast Asian producing areas, and the US biodiesel policy is favorable to the demand outlook for US soybean oil, so it is expected that oils will mainly maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the MPOB report data this month [3] - Protein meal: Recently, US soybeans have strengthened due to factors such as the possible release of positive signals in Sino - US trade relations and US biofuel policies, driving the continuous meal to follow a relatively strong shock. However, the domestic supply - loose pattern will still put pressure on the upside space, and it is expected that the continuous meal will maintain a shock situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7944, 8472, and 9607 respectively, with price changes of - 50, - 6, and - 12, and percentage changes of - 0.63%, - 0.07%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2954, 2458, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 4, - 2, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.14%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: There are various spread and ratio indicators for different varieties, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. The current values and previous values of these indicators are provided, showing certain changes [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4032 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 22 and a percentage change of 0.55%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT soybeans was 1048 cents/bu, with a price change of 1 and a percentage change of 0.05%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean oil was 55 cents/lb, with a price change of - 1 and a percentage change of - 0.96%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean meal was 292 dollars/ton, with a price change of 2 and a percentage change of 0.58% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals are provided, such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 8150, with a percentage change of - 0.73%, and Nantong soybean meal at 2800, with a percentage change of - 0.71% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different varieties are also given, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 206 and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 350 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - Import profit and pressure indicators for different imported varieties are presented, such as the current value of the near - month Malaysian palm oil being - 580, showing a change compared to the previous value [2] Warehouse Receipts - Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for various varieties like soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, with some showing changes [2] Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with different changes in different regions [3] - The global food price index in June increased by 0.5% compared to May, reaching an average of 128.0 points [3] - As of the week ending June 29, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil: Bullish, Soybean oil: Bullish [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the vegetable oil market will start a new chapter under the influence of the US biofuel new policy. The price center of palm oil and soybean oil will move up. [2] - The report recommends paying attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil and soybean oil 01 contracts from the second half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 2025H1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soybean oil market was relatively calm, with the maximum fluctuation range of the main contract less than 1000 points. It oscillated in the first quarter, rose due to supply shortages in the second quarter, and then rose again in early June under the influence of the Israel - Iran conflict and the US biofuel policy. [15] - The palm oil market fluctuated more. It was weak in January, rose rapidly in February due to bad weather, then fell back due to production recovery and order cancellations, and rose again in early June under the resonance of the Israel - Iran conflict and the sharp rise of US soybean oil. [16] 2025H2 Outlook International Market - The US biofuel policy has reshaped the vegetable oil market pattern. The increase in US domestic demand for soybean oil has tightened the global soybean oil balance sheet, which will raise the price center of global vegetable oils. Palm oil will also benefit from this, with obvious bottom support. [18][19] - **Malaysia**: The palm oil production has basically achieved the expected increase and is expected to maintain a normal seasonal rhythm in the second half of the year. The export is expected to be ideal, and the inventory accumulation process may slow down. The year - end inventory is expected to reach 1.54 million tons. [20][31] - **Indonesia**: The B40 implementation progress is slow, and there are still problems with the fund balance. However, considering the fund situation and the government's attitude, it is more likely to complete the B40 distribution plan, which will keep the annual balance sheet in a tight balance and support the price. [43][65] - **US**: The RVO obligation has been significantly increased, and the soybean oil balance sheet has been significantly tightened. The US may increase imports or soybean crushing to meet the demand, which will have a greater impact on the global soybean oil balance sheet. [66][76] - **South America**: The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to be good. The export of Brazilian soybeans will decline in the third quarter, while Argentina's soybean oil still has export demand. After the end of the soybean oil export tax reduction on June 30, the South American soybean oil quotation is expected to be firm. Brazil's increase in the biodiesel blending ratio will reduce the global soybean oil supply. [77][85] - **India**: The inventory of edible oils is tight, and the procurement may increase significantly. It is expected to have two replenishment peaks in June and August - September. The replenishment demand will limit the speed of origin inventory accumulation and support the price. [90][106] Domestic Market - The inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean oil in China has arrived, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to reach parity. The procurement of palm oil depends on the origin's selling intention and India's replenishment rhythm, and the import is expected to be between 300,000 and 400,000 tons. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient in the third quarter, and the basis is expected to be weak. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to reach parity from late July to mid - August and may return to an inverted state in the fourth quarter. [115][123] Market Judgment and Suggestions - The vegetable oil market is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with the main upward wave expected to appear from the second half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. It is recommended to focus on the long - position opportunities of palm oil and soybean oil 01 contracts. In the first half of the third quarter, it is recommended to operate within the range. [3][126]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美国生物燃料政策前景向好，提振美豆压榨需求前景，叠加美豆步入天气敏感期，整体继续保 持易涨难跌节奏。国内豆类市场受到美豆期价的联动支撑，整体反弹趋势持续。豆类油脂联动增强。 品种：豆油（Y） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 偏强 偏强 震 ...