Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures is expected to continue in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, while the medium - term trend is expected to be volatile [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The excellent growth rate of US soybeans exceeded market expectations, causing the futures price to break below the 1000 - cent mark. However, strong US soybean crushing demand is an important support. In the domestic market, the negative basis of soybean meal continues to widen, and the short - term supply expectation of soybean meal futures dominates the market. The futures are stronger than the spot, and the pattern of domestic strength and foreign weakness continues [5]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Lower - than - expected US soybean oil inventory supports the US soybean oil futures price. The domestic soybean oil market is mainly driven by the cost support of raw - material soybeans and the increased demand for bio - fuels, which boosts both domestic and foreign soybean oil futures prices [8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Reference view: slightly bullish [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The improving fundamentals of Malaysian palm oil boost the palm oil futures price, which also affects the domestic palm oil price. The domestic palm oil price follows the international market, but limited capital participation restricts the rebound space [9].