Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the impact of high-interest fixed-term deposits maturing in 2025-2026, estimating a total maturity scale of 112 trillion yuan in 2025, with 72 trillion yuan being high-interest deposits [2][13] - The renewal rate of banks in response to the large amount of maturing deposits is over 100%, indicating that new deposits exceed maturing deposits, although the growth in corporate deposits is significantly lower compared to previous years [2][16] - The report highlights the challenges banks face in renewing high-interest deposits, as they are primarily relying on short-term deposits and demand deposits, which may lead to increased volatility in funding [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Maturity Scale of High-Interest Fixed-Term Deposits - In 2025, the maturity scale of fixed-term deposits is estimated at 112 trillion yuan, with high-interest deposits accounting for 72 trillion yuan [2][13] - The maturity in the second half of 2025 is approximately 50 trillion yuan, with high-interest deposits maturing at 37 trillion yuan [2][13] 2. Renewal Rate of Banks - From January to July 2025, banks added nearly 10 trillion yuan in general deposits, with retail deposits performing better than corporate deposits [16] - The renewal rate exceeds 100%, indicating that banks are successfully renewing deposits despite a significant decline in the growth of corporate deposits [16][17] 3. Impact on Liability Management - Banks are renewing high-interest deposits primarily through short-term and demand deposits, which has led to a decline in the stability of liabilities [3][25] - The report notes that this strategy, while addressing immediate liquidity needs, increases the risk of duration mismatch [3][40] 4. Asset-Liability Gap and Response Strategies - The asset-liability gap for large banks and small banks reached -8.3 trillion yuan and -2.9 trillion yuan respectively, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [4][31] - Large banks are absorbing monetary policy tools and interbank deposits to manage the gap, while small banks are increasingly relying on short-term funding [4][40] 5. Improvement in Liability Costs - The report estimates that the maturing high-interest deposits will reduce the liability costs for large and joint-stock banks by approximately 15 basis points in the second half of 2025 [5][42] - For 2026, the improvement in liability costs is expected to be around 12 basis points, indicating a diminishing "dividend effect" from maturing high-interest deposits [5][46] 6. Bond Investment Stimulus - The report suggests that a decrease in liability costs could theoretically stimulate banks to increase bond investments, but practical implementation may face delays due to the need for continuous monitoring of funding costs [5][41]