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【中国银河固收】转债策略更新 | 权益市场重新回升,高波策略年内超额38%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-11 10:20
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 上一周期(11.25-12.8)低价增强策略、改良双低策略、高价高弹性策略分别录得0.2%、2.3%、2.3%(同期基准0.0%)。今年以来,三类策略绩效分别为 17.4%、29.4%、55.1%(同期基准16.7%),累计超额收益率0.7%、12.7%、38.4%。上个周期权益市场回升,万得全A环比收涨4.1%,中证转债收平,低 价风格表现稍弱,高波策略重新占优。 低价增强策略最新持仓: 高价高弹性策略最新持仓: 阳谷转债(基础化工,新入)、华懋转债(汽车,新入)、永02转债(机械设备,新入)、富春转债(纺织服饰,新入)、中环转2(环保,新入)、超 声转债(电子,新入)、易瑞转债(医药生物,新入)、水羊转债、亿纬转债、北港转债。 高价高弹性策略调仓理由: 上期高价指数跟随正股上涨0.9%,高波策略重新占优。调入调出方面,本期调出价格偏高的天源转债、柳工转2、春23转债等,调入暂无强赎风险的阳谷 转债、华懋转债等高价品种,并保持行业分散。当前权益高位下高波策略操作难度偏高,叠加年末流动性或边际收紧,持续关注强赎进度及估值压缩带来 的下行 ...
【中国银河固收】转债策略更新 | 权益市场震荡冲高,风格切回稳健低波
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 11:37
Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]
高波策略承压,看好顺周期红利
2025-09-28 14:57
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market in China, focusing on high and low volatility strategies, economic recovery, and the impact of global competition on China's economy [1][3][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **High Volatility Strategy**: Reflects capital expansion and encourages capital expenditure, but has faced pressure since June due to high market sentiment and significant inflows into the technology sector [1][3][6]. - **Low Volatility Strategy**: Associated with supply constraints, consumption expansion, and globalization, benefiting large core enterprises and enhancing their profitability [4][10]. - **Current Bull Market Foundation**: Driven by Price-to-Book (PB) ratios rather than traditional Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a shift in focus towards long-term sustainable growth [5][10]. - **Economic Recovery and Debt Cycle**: The current economic recovery is decoupled from the debt cycle, with asset prices recovering ahead of economic indicators, driven by supply constraints and high actual interest rates [7][12]. - **Supply-Driven Economic Recovery**: Characterized by price expansion through supply constraints, requiring ongoing globalization and parallel development of traditional and high-end manufacturing [8][9]. - **Global Competition Strategy**: China has strategically navigated the U.S. economic cycles, capitalizing on inflation periods for exports and implementing supply constraints during interest rate cuts to mitigate risks [2][11]. Additional Important Content - **Market Dynamics**: The transition from high volatility to low volatility strategies is necessary for focusing on stable long-term returns rather than short-term speculation [10][15]. - **Impact of U.S. Interest Rates**: U.S. interest rate cuts have led to historically low import levels, affecting global export prices, but are expected to improve as inflation pressures build [16]. - **Wealth Effect and Consumer Behavior**: A low volatility environment is crucial for stimulating consumer spending and creating a wealth effect, contrasting with the risks of high volatility leading to market bubbles [12][13]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic shifts in investment approaches and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market in China.