高端黄金珠宝市场份额提升

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老铺黄金(06181.HK):品牌扩圈驱动营收高增 经营杠杆驱动盈利优化
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-29 19:35
Core Viewpoint - The company has released a positive earnings forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating significant growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by brand expansion and operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For H1 2025, the company expects revenue to be approximately 12 billion to 12.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of about 241% to 255% [1] - The projected net profit for H1 2025 is around 2.23 billion to 2.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 279% to 288% [1] - Adjusted net profit is anticipated to be between 2.3 billion to 2.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 282% to 292% [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers - Key factors driving the high growth in H1 2025 include the continuous expansion of brand influence, leading to significant revenue increases from both online and offline stores [1] - Ongoing product optimization and new iterations are supporting sustained revenue growth across channels [1] - The contribution of new channel development and store optimization to revenue is expected to be more pronounced in H2 2025 [1] Group 3: Profitability Metrics - The adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 is projected to increase by 1.9 percentage points to 19.0%, primarily benefiting from same-store sales growth and scale effects [1] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Based on the trend of brand expansion and high-potential store development, the company forecasts revenues of 25.517 billion, 36.959 billion, and 47.041 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 200.0%, 44.8%, and 27.3% [2] - The expected net profits for the same years are 4.706 billion, 6.832 billion, and 9.113 billion yuan, with growth rates of 219.5%, 45.2%, and 33.4% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 27.25, 39.57, and 52.78 yuan per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]