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月酝知风之银行业:股息仍具吸引力,关注长期资金入市
Ping An Securities· 2025-07-09 08:17
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][49]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a profound change in the funding structure, emphasizing a shift towards reallocation rather than trading. The changes in fund flows are crucial for the valuation recovery of the sector, with stable inflows driven by the continuous expansion of passive indices. The banking sector's characteristics of low volatility and high dividends make it attractive to long-term funds, with an average dividend yield of 3.86%. Regulatory measures aimed at guiding long-term funds into the market are expected to sustain the attractiveness of dividend allocation [3][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The banking industry is rated as "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [1][49]. Core Industry Insights - The report notes that the changes in fund flows are a significant force driving the valuation recovery of the banking sector. The continuous expansion of passive indices has led to stable fund inflows, and the sector's high dividend yield is appealing to long-term investors, particularly insurance funds. The average dividend yield in the sector is currently at 3.86% [3][16]. - The report expresses optimism about the A-share banking sector and certain high-quality regional banks (Chengdu, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Suzhou, Changsha) based on dividend and potential long-term fund inflow considerations. It also highlights opportunities in Hong Kong's major banks with better dividend advantages [3][16]. Market Trends - In June 2025, the banking sector rose by 6.13%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.63 percentage points, ranking 11th among 30 sectors in the CITIC index [25][19]. - The report tracks the trend of long-term funds flowing into the banking sector, with insurance funds increasing their allocation. Since 2024, the pace of insurance fund allocation has slightly increased, with 23 A-share listed banks having insurance funds among their top ten shareholders [4][8]. Macro and Liquidity Tracking - The report provides macroeconomic indicators, noting that the manufacturing PMI for June was 49.70%, with a slight month-on-month increase. The one-year and five-year LPR remained stable at 3.0% and 3.50%, respectively [27][38]. - In terms of credit, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion yuan in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.10%. The total social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.70% [39][42]. Individual Stock Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for individual banks, highlighting strong recommendations for several banks based on their expected performance and valuation metrics. For instance, Chengdu Bank and Suzhou Bank are rated as "Strong Buy" with projected PB ratios below 1.0 [45].