对话非银：保险的重估与券商的躁动 20260107 摘要 2025 年末 A500 指数持续流入资金，元旦前后 ETF 净流入显著，反映 市场对该指数的积极预期。 非银金融板块公募机构超配比例为负 4.67%，配置分位数为 24%，显 示机构配置不高，股价刚突破 2024 年 9 月高点，累计涨幅有限，具备 配置价值。 保险板块自 2025 年 10 月以来表现强劲，受益于预定利率下调、负债 端改善（分红险转型）、资产端扩张及 2026 年三季度权益端亮眼表现， 开门红销售良好。 2026 年三季度保险公司投资收益稳定，全年业绩良好，得益于权益端 增配，特别是高分红产品配置，包括 OCI 和非 OCI 占比较高的产品。 展望 2027 年，保险行业负债端和资产端同步扩张，分红险拉动资金流 入，第三方资产管理规模扩大，政策放松资本约束，推动居民中长期资 金入市。 险资倾向于配置高股息、高分红标的，如银行类资产，以及 FVOCL 类 别中股票部分，新增资金约 20%用于股票配置，A 股与 H 股溢价折价影 响险资选择。 2026 年更青睐保险板块，因其在负债端承载居民中长期资金，推动居 民资金入市，资产端增加权益 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

（文章来源：第一财经） 中金指出，12月市场风险偏好改善，春季行情有望延续。1月建议关注如下配置思路：1.伴随AI技术与 应用扩散，关注光模块、云计算基础设施，应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶等。2.有色金属部 分细分行业受益于全球货币秩序重构及供需不均。3.以地产链和泛消费为代表的顺周期行情仍偏左侧， 综合考虑产能周期与企业出海拓宽市场的诉求，关注化工、电网设备、工程机械、白色家电、商用车 等。4.中长期资金入市是长期趋势，从优质现金流、波动率及分红确定性出发，布局高股息龙头公司。 5.资本市场风险偏好改善提振非银金融业绩表现，关注保险、券商。 ...

党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议提出，要健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能。推 动中长期资金入市，是其中一项重要工作。 证券时报记者独家获悉，为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门近日调研了部分理财公司。 具体来看，调研问题包括但不限于目前制约银行理财提高投资A股规模和比例的障碍、未来五年行业期 待相关政策制度如何优化等。 调研精准倾听业界声音 以证券时报记者获知的信息来看，监管部门问脉的方向凸显了业务专注度和对业界感受的高度关注。比 如，调研问题涉及对已有政策的效果复盘、对境外成熟市场的借鉴、理财公司的实际展业经验等。 具体来看，监管问询了"十四五"时期，特别是《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》《关于推动中长 期资金入市工作的实施方案》印发以来，相关部委哪些政策举措对银行理财资金的股票投资产生了积极 影响，具体效果如何。 监管部门还关注了制约银行理财提高投资A股规模和比例的障碍，并请理财公司不限于投资运营政策、 考核指标、激励机制、资本市场生态等维度进行反馈。 此外，监管部门还对境外成熟市场中银行理财资金有无高比例投资股票的案例表示关注，并探究相关现 象产生的原因，以期推出适应性配套政策。 ...

【导读】2025年A股新开户达到2743.69万户 中国基金报记者 孙越 1月6日，上交所最新披露，2025年12月A股新开户达260万户，较11月环比增长9%，比2024年同期的199万户大幅增长30.54%。 至此，2025年全年A股新开户总数为2743.69万户。相比2024年的2499.89万户，同比增长9.75%，成为自2022年以来A股年度新开户数据的最高纪录。 在整体开户量稳步攀升的同时，市场呈现出一个引人瞩目的结构性变化：机构开户量大幅跃升。 | 日期 | 总数 | A 股 | B 股 | 基金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.01 | 177.37 | 157.00 | 0.04 | 20.33 | | 2025.02 | 313.77 | 283.59 | 0.04 | 30.14 | | 2025.03 | 348.53 | 306.55 | 0.05 | 41.93 | | 2025.04 | 213.32 | 192.44 | 0.04 | 20.84 | | 2025.05 | 172.77 | 155.56 | 0.04 | 17 ...

【导读】 2025 年 A 股新开户达到 2743.69 万户 中国基金报记者 孙越 1 月 6 日，上交所最新披露， 2025 年 12 月 A 股新开户达 260 万户，较 11 月环比增长 9% ，比 2024 年同期的 199 万户大幅增长 30.54% 。 至此， 2025 年全年 A 股新开户总数为 2743.69 万户。相比 2024 年的 2499.89 万户， 同比增长 9.75% ，成为自 2022 年以来 A 股年度新开户数据的最高纪录。 这一增长趋势在 2025 年得以延续，全年新开户 2744 万户，同比增长 9.75% ，并创下自 2022 年以来的年度新增开户数量新高。 回顾 2025 年 A 股新开户数据的月度变化，可以发现股市赚钱效应和政策支持是影响投资者 入市的两大主要因素。 1 月平稳开局，新开 157 万户； 2 月受春节后行情活跃影响，激增至 284 万户。 3 月再创 新高，突破 300 万户。 4 月受国际形势影响，开户数回落，而随后的 5 月因假期因素继续 下降。 在整体开户量稳步攀升的同时，市场呈现出一个引人瞩目的结构性变化：机构开户量大幅跃 升。 | 账户新 ...

为打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，监管部门在持续倾听并搜集业界意见，以求更精准发力。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《"十五五"规划建议》提出，要健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功 能，而推动中长期资金入市是其中一项重要工作。 券商中国记者独家获知，为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上月调研了部分理财公司。其调研问 题包括但不限于目前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍有哪些；行业未来五年对我国相关 政策制度的期待有哪些，如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 具体来看，指数型理财产品呈现"爆发式"增长态势。截至2026年1月6日，名称中包含"指数"的存续理财 产品达154只，去年发行数量达58只，2024年、2023年及以前发行的产品分别为11只、12只和17只。值 得一提的是，中银理财、华夏理财等公司开发具有特定行业主题的指数化产品，例如聚焦战略性新兴产 业、区域经济特色等领域，形成自身产品的差异化。 更精准倾听业界声音 以券商中国记者获知的信息来看，监管问脉的方向显示了业务专业性和对业界感 受的高度关注。主要调研问题包括对已有政策的效果复盘、对境外成熟市场的借鉴、理财公司的实际展 业经验。 具体来看，监管 ...

为打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，监管部门在持续倾听并搜集业界意见，以求更精 准发力。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《"十五五"规划建议》提出，要健全投资和融资相协调的资本市 场功能，而推动中长期资金入市是其中一项重要工作。 券商中国记者独家获知，为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上月调研了部分理财公司。其 调研问题包括但不限于目前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍有哪些；行业未来五 年对我国相关政策制度的期待有哪些，如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 更精准倾听业界声音 从产品端来看：截至2025年三季度末，全市场理财产品存续规模32.13万亿元。其中混合类产品 存续规模为0.83万亿元，占比为2.58%；而权益类产品和商品及金融衍生品类产品的存续规模分 别仅0.07万亿元和0.02万亿元，占比只有0.22%和0.062%，加起来还不足0.3%。 从资产端来看，截至2025年三季度末，全市场理财产品投资资产合计34.33万亿元。理财产品资 产配置以固收类为主，投向债券、现金及银行存款、同业存单余额分别为13.86万亿元、9.45万 亿元、4.50万亿元，分别占总投资资产的40.4%、27.5%、13 ...

为打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，监管部门在持续倾听并搜集业界意见，以求更精准发力。为做好"十 五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上月调研了部分理财公司。其调研问题包括但不限于目前制约银行理财 提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍有哪些；行业未来五年对我国相关政策制度的期待有哪些，如何能提 高理财投资A股的积极性等。监管问脉的方向显示了业务专业性和对业界感受的高度关注。主要调研问 题包括对已有政策的效果复盘、对境外成熟市场的借鉴、理财公司的实际展业经验。具体来看，监管问 询了"十四五"时期，特别是《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》和《关于推动中长期资金入市工作 的实施方案》印发以来，相关部委哪些政策举措对银行理财资金的股票投资产生了积极影响，具体效果 如何。监管也关注制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍，并邀请理财公司从不限于投资运营 政策、考核指标、激励机制、资本市场生态等维度作答。同时，监管部门还关注在境外成熟市场中，银 行理财资金有无高比例投资股票的案例，该现象产生的原因是什么，有哪些配套政策予以支持。最后， 监管也希望理财公司表达对相关政策制度的期待，以提高投资A股的积极性和规模。 （文章来源：证券时报） ...

为打通中长期资金入市卡点堵点，监管部门在持续倾听并搜集业界意见，以求更精准发力。 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《"十五五"规划建议》提出，要健全投资和融资相协调的资本市场功能，而推 动中长期资金入市是其中一项重要工作。 券商中国记者独家获知，为做好"十五五"规划编制工作，监管部门上月调研了部分理财公司。其调研问题包括 但不限于目前制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍有哪些；行业未来五年对我国相关政策制度的期 待有哪些，如何能提高理财投资A股的积极性等。 更精准倾听业界声音 以券商中国记者获知的信息来看，监管问脉的方向显示了业务专业性和对业界感受的高度关注。主要调研问题 包括对已有政策的效果复盘、对境外成熟市场的借鉴、理财公司的实际展业经验。 具体来看，监管问询了"十四五"时期，特别是《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》和《关于推动中长期资 金入市工作的实施方案》印发以来，相关部委哪些政策举措对银行理财资金的股票投资产生了积极影响，具体 效果如何。 监管也关注制约银行理财提高投资A股的规模和比例的障碍，并邀请理财公司从不限于投资运营政策、考核指 标、激励机制、资本市场生态等维度作答。 同时，监管部门还关注 ...