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施罗德投资:优质股长远能够带来更高的回报并在市场低迷时展现更强的韧性
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 13:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that high-quality stocks may not have performed well recently, but they are expected to provide higher long-term returns and demonstrate resilience during market downturns due to their strong competitiveness and stable profitability [1] - Recent negative news, including tariff threats, Middle East conflicts, and rising government debt levels, have not significantly impacted the stock market, which has reached new historical highs after a weak first quarter [1] - The rise in the stock market is partly attributed to the high participation of retail investors, who have been conditioned to "buy the dip" over the past 15 years, leading to a fear of missing out rather than focusing on risk-adjusted returns [1] Group 2 - There is a perception that high-quality stocks are performing well in the U.S., primarily driven by large-cap stocks like the "Magnificent Seven," while small-cap high-quality stocks have not outperformed the market [2] - Short-term market outlook appears optimistic due to favorable economic data, U.S. tax reform stimulus, robust corporate earnings, and slightly improved geopolitical conditions, potentially pushing the S&P 500 index to levels between 6700 and 6800 by August 2025 [2] - Emerging markets may become relatively more attractive for long-term investors as many Western countries face high debt and deficits, while some emerging markets have reduced debt levels and have favorable demographic structures [2]