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高速公路收费标准上调
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公路:延期未至,涨价先行
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-11-02 10:15
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [3][55]. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of toll standards in the central and western provinces has begun, with some exceeding 0.6 yuan per vehicle per kilometer, reaching up to 1.2 yuan [5][11]. - Toll increases are expected to become a trend, starting from the central and western regions and potentially spreading to the eastern regions due to fiscal pressures and ongoing operational costs [6][23]. - The potential for price increases in the central and western provinces is greater than in the eastern provinces, with specific companies likely to benefit from these adjustments [7][43]. Summary by Sections Toll Standard Adjustments - Toll standards have been raised in several provinces, with the highest reaching 1.2 yuan per vehicle per kilometer in Sichuan and exceeding 0.6 yuan in Hubei [10][11]. - The increase in toll rates is linked to construction costs and revenue needs, with various provinces employing different methods to justify these increases [12][14]. Fiscal Pressures - The revenue shortfall for operational and debt repayment highways has been increasing, with a reported deficit of 230 billion yuan for operational highways in 2019 [19][23]. - The debt balance of highways has also been rising, reaching 58,045 billion yuan, which is 5.8% of nominal GDP [19][22]. Continuous Operations and Investment Returns - The need for price increases is driven by rising construction costs and inflation, which affect the operational sustainability of highway projects [29][32]. - The profitability of highway assets has been declining despite increased mileage, indicating a potential "growth trap" in infrastructure investments [32][31]. Regional Price Increase Potential - The central and western provinces face higher fiscal pressures and lower toll revenues, suggesting a greater potential for toll increases compared to eastern provinces [43][44]. - Companies with longer toll collection durations and higher passenger vehicle ratios are expected to benefit more from potential price hikes [46][48].