[Table_Title] 证券研究报告|交通运输 基本面经营稳健，政策端有潜在利好预期 [Table_ReportType] ——2026 年高速公路行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： Table_Summary] 高速公路的建设及运营关乎民生，高速公路企业通常为地方 国有企业，当前高速公路行业已经进入成熟期，运营里程增 长放缓，其经营模式具有重资产、周期长、回报稳的特点， 历史经营业绩表现稳健，2025 年前三季度盈利回升；车流量 方面，2025 年宏观经济增速保持韧性，预计随着宏观经济持 续修复，2026 年车流量有望保持稳健增长；收费标准及收费 期限方面，行业收支缺口较大、新建成本抬升等因素倒逼行 业收费标准以及收费期限的优化调整，近年来部分省份推出 调高新建和改扩建高速公路的收费标准或调高存量高速公路 收费标准，未来有望在不同区域间扩散，但是预计周期较 长。此外，收费公路管理条例也已经纳入 2025 年提请全国 人大常委会预备修订，有望加快出台；投资收益方面，高速 公路板块价格指数涨幅在相关红利板块中具有优势，高速公 路上市公司分红比例较高，长期利率下行的背景下， ...

最近，高速公路领域传来大消息：浙江宁波绕城高速西段从11月起永久免费，G30连霍高速西宝段也将在12月到期停收！加上之前免费的四川成绵高速、成 都城北出口高速、武汉天河机场高速等，全国已有十余条高速（约三百公里）告别收费，覆盖湖南、四川、湖北、广东等地。这下，司机朋友们可高兴坏 了：以后开车跑高速，钱包能省下一大笔！不过，高速免费真的能全面铺开吗？背后又有哪些挑战？咱们今天就来好好聊聊。 这事儿得从高速公路的"寿命"说起。根据《收费公路管理条例》，高速收费不是想收多久就收多久：政府还贷公路最多收15年，经营性公路最多25年，中西 部偏远地区能延长到20年、30年。一旦到期，必须停止收费。为啥这么规定？因为早期修高速主要靠"贷款修路、收费还贷"，用通行费还银行的钱。如今几 十年过去，首批90年代建的高速陆续"还完债"，自然要回归公益属性，免费让老百姓用。 比如四川成绵高速，一免费首周车流量就激增30%，成都到绵阳通勤族单程省下50元，物流企业成本降了12?5%。还有陕西的西宝高速，12月到期后直接拆 收费站，西安到宝鸡通行费全免，两地居民探亲、旅游、做生意都更方便，甚至带动了沿线餐饮、民宿的发展。说白了，高速免 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to significantly enhance its performance through the acquisition of road assets in Q1 2025 and the completion of the expansion of the Xuan Guang highway in Q3, which will drive accelerated profit growth. The planned acquisition of a stake in Shandong Expressway is anticipated to further boost earnings, with a stable dividend policy in place [3][12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The total revenue is projected to grow from 6,631 million yuan in 2023 to 8,820 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 27.4% in 2023 and 24.4% in 2025 [5]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,660 million yuan in 2023 to 1,976 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 14.9% in 2023 and 18.4% in 2025 [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.97 yuan in 2023 to 1.16 yuan in 2025 [5]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is projected to be 13.1% in 2023, decreasing to 11.2% by 2027 [5]. Market Data - **Current Price**: The stock is currently priced at 15.37 yuan, with a market capitalization of 26,261 million yuan [7]. - **52-Week Price Range**: The stock has traded between 12.89 yuan and 18.47 yuan over the past year [7]. - **Dividend Yield**: The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% of net profit, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 4.7% for 2025 [12]. Strategic Moves - The company completed the acquisition of road assets in Q1 2025, which has significantly enhanced its earnings. The completion of the expansion of the Xuan Guang highway in Q3 is expected to release pent-up traffic demand, further driving profit growth [12]. - The planned acquisition of a 7% stake in Shandong Expressway is expected to add approximately 200 million yuan in annual investment income, enhancing the company's overall performance [12].

中原高速（600020）(600020.SH)发布公告，公司2025年10月份通行费收入为3.12亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (600012) has shown a strong performance in toll revenue for the first three quarters, indicating growth potential and strategic investments in the sector [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a total toll revenue of 3.915 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.83% [1] - In the third quarter alone, toll revenue reached 1.389 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.24% [1] Strategic Developments - The company announced the completion of the Xuan-Guang Expressway's Guangci section in the third quarter, contributing to significant revenue growth [1] - In October, the company disclosed plans to acquire a 7% stake in Shandong Highway (600350) from Shandong High Group for 3.019 billion yuan, at a price of 8.92 yuan per share [1] - Following this investment, the company will secure one board seat in Shandong Highway and will account for this investment using the equity method, which is expected to enhance its earnings [1]

Core Points - The first highway in Hunan Province, Changyong Expressway, will stop charging tolls starting from November 2, 2025, due to the expiration of its toll collection period [1] - The original toll collection period for this highway was 30 years, which was extended by nearly a year due to various reasons [4] - There is ongoing debate regarding whether highways should remain toll-free after the expiration of their toll periods, with concerns about potential congestion and maintenance funding [6][12] Group 1 - The Changyong Expressway was built in 1994, and its toll collection period was initially set to end in 2024 but was extended to 2025 [4] - The general toll collection period for highways in China is between 15 to 30 years, with a maximum limit of 30 years [4] - There have been instances where highways continued to charge tolls beyond their expiration dates, leading to public controversy [4][6] Group 2 - Other highways in China, such as the Shanghai-Jiaxing Expressway, ceased toll collection after their periods expired, indicating a trend towards free highways [6] - Concerns have been raised about the maintenance of highways if they become toll-free, with a reported annual funding gap of 300 billion yuan for ordinary roads [6] - The potential for extending toll collection periods through highway expansions has been noted, as seen with several highways that have undergone expansions and continued to charge tolls [7][9] Group 3 - The revision of the "Regulations on the Administration of Toll Roads" is expected to clarify the conditions under which tolls can be extended beyond 30 years [12] - The trend towards more free highways is seen as beneficial for reducing congestion and lowering logistics costs, similar to practices in other countries [12] - The increasing number of highways transitioning to free status after toll expiration is viewed as a significant trend in the industry [12]

Core Points - The Changyong Expressway in Hunan Province has implemented a "zero toll" policy, becoming the first long-term free expressway in the province as of November 2, 2025 [2] - The "zero toll" policy means that all vehicles passing through this expressway will incur no toll fees, although fees for other toll roads will still be calculated and charged [2] - Other expressways in China are also transitioning to free passage after their toll periods expire, including the Chengbei Exit Expressway and the Chengmian Expressway in Sichuan Province [2] Industry Implications - The increase in traffic flow due to the free toll policy raises concerns about the maintenance and upkeep of the roads, presenting a challenge for transportation management departments to ensure road quality and service levels without toll revenue [3]

Core Points - The Changyong Expressway in Hunan, which has been operational for nearly 31 years, will implement a "zero toll" policy starting from November 2, 2025, making it the first expressway in Hunan to be permanently free of charge [1][3][4] - The expressway connects key areas including Changsha city center and Changsha Huanghua Airport, and the removal of tolls is expected to reduce logistics costs in the region [1][3] Summary by Sections Toll Policy Changes - The Changyong Expressway will cease to charge tolls, allowing all vehicles to pass through without fees, while still collecting tolls for other routes [1][3] - The expressway's toll period was originally set for 30 years, but due to various compensatory measures, the toll period was extended to November 1, 2025 [4][12] Historical Context - The expressway was the first in Hunan, constructed using a "social fundraising and loan" model, which raised 110 million yuan to initiate the project [3] - The toll period was extended twice due to revenue losses from policies like holiday exemptions for small passenger vehicles and green channels for fresh agricultural products [4][12] Broader Trends in Expressway Tolling - Several expressways across China are also transitioning to free tolls as their toll periods expire, including the Chengdu North Exit Expressway and the Wuhan Tianhe Airport Expressway [10][11] - The trend of expressways becoming toll-free is linked to the expiration of their designated toll periods, which has become a significant public concern [12][13] Regulatory Environment - The current regulations stipulate maximum toll periods for government-funded and operating expressways, with potential extensions under specific conditions [13][14] - Ongoing discussions regarding the revision of the "Toll Road Management Regulations" may lead to clearer guidelines on toll-free transitions and extensions [15] Future Considerations - The increase in traffic volume following the removal of tolls may lead to congestion issues, raising concerns about road maintenance and management post-toll removal [16]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway reported a mixed financial performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in its core operations despite challenges in the broader market [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company recorded an operating income of 5.3855 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07% [1] - The net profit for the same period was 1.477 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.43% [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 517 million yuan, marking an 8.19% year-on-year growth [1] Traffic and Revenue Growth - The core traffic volume for the company’s main routes showed significant growth, with the Xuan-Guang Expressway expansion leading to a 321.35% year-on-year increase in traffic volume [1] - Toll revenue for the third quarter surged by 381.22% year-on-year, driven by the increased traffic [1] Strategic Investments - Following the acquisition of Fuzhou-Zhou and Si-Xu Expressways in the first half of the year, the company announced a major investment in October, planning to acquire a 7% stake in Shandong Expressway Group for 3.019 billion yuan through a private agreement [1] - This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's effective investments and strengthen its core business operations [1] - Post-transaction, the company will gain a board seat at Shandong Expressway, allowing for improved operational performance and collaboration in information sharing and business synergy [1]

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Wantuo Expressway (00995) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently at HKD 12.85, with a trading volume of HKD 25.478 million, following the announcement of its financial results for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of CNY 5.3855 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.07% [1] - The net profit for the same period was CNY 1.477 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.43% [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 517 million, marking an 8.19% year-on-year growth [1] Traffic and Revenue Growth - The core segments of the company experienced significant traffic growth, particularly following the completion of the Xuan-Guang Expressway expansion, which saw a year-on-year traffic increase of 321.35% in the third quarter [1] - Toll revenue for the same period surged by 381.22% year-on-year [1] Strategic Investments - After completing the acquisitions of Fuzhou-Zhou and Si-Xu Expressways in the first half of the year, the company announced a major investment in October, planning to acquire a 7% stake in Shandong Highway Group for CNY 3.019 billion through a private agreement [1] - This acquisition is expected to enhance the company's effective investments and strengthen its core business [1] - Following the transaction, the company will gain a board seat at Shandong Highway, allowing for equity method accounting, which is anticipated to positively impact the company's operating performance and facilitate collaboration in information sharing and business synergy [1]