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京沪高铁:本线客流增长承压,京福安徽一季度扭亏为盈-20250513
Guoxin Securities· 2025-05-13 02:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][16] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 42.16 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 3.6%, and a net profit of 12.77 billion yuan, up 10.6% [9] - The passenger volume on the main line faced pressure, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline to 52.016 million passengers, while cross-line train operations showed steady growth [2][11] - The gross profit margin improved to 46.9% in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 percentage points, and the company’s financial expenses decreased due to reduced debt [3][12] - Long-term value is highlighted as the company is a core asset of the railway group, with strong profitability and low risk, and the gradual marketization of high-speed rail pricing opens up future growth potential [3][12] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 421.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 127.7 billion yuan, with a slight revenue increase of 0.01% in Q4 [9] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2025 Q1 was 45.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the financial expense ratio decreased to 3.8% [3][12] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.37 billion, 14.08 billion, and 14.78 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 5.3%, and 5.0% respectively [4][16]