互联在 交通运输/ 铁路公路 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版费 行业 相关研究 #那就玩 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 册 分歧了后 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 寻找时代的"HALO 资 铁路公路资产的时代奏鸣 铁路公路行业点评 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 铁路公路资产"HALO"属性突出,中长期战略配置窗口期开启。"HALO资产"是指重 ○ 资产、低淘汰风险、壁垒高（审批壁垒、复制壁垒、CAPEX 规模等）、稳定现金流，铁 路公路资产作为典型的网络型交通运输资产，具备较强的"HALO 资产" 属性。 春运景气度前低后高，铁路公路景气度改善。根据交通运输部数据，2026 年 2 月 2 日 ● 至 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 铁路公路 2026 年 03 月 02 日 寻找时代的"HALO 资产"，唱响 铁路公路资产的时代奏鸣曲 看好 ——铁路公路行业点评 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 研究支持 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 - ⚫ 铁路公路资产"HALO"属性突出，中长期战略配置窗口期开启。"HALO资产"是指重 资产、低淘汰风险、壁垒高（审批壁垒、复制壁垒、CAPEX 规模等）、稳定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Sustainable Development Blue Book: Sustainable Development Report of China's Transportation Industry Enterprises (2025)" highlights the critical transition of the transportation industry in China from "factor-driven, scale expansion" to "innovation-driven, quality and efficiency-oriented" development [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The blue book assesses the sustainable development progress, current shortcomings, and future pathways of 244 listed companies in the transportation sector, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, for the years 2024-2025 [1] - The green and low-carbon development of the transportation industry is not only essential for the industry itself but also a strategic priority for achieving the societal "dual carbon" goals [1] Group 2: Disclosure and Challenges - As of April 2025, 156 companies have disclosed sustainability-related reports, achieving a disclosure rate of 64%, indicating a significant increase in awareness of sustainable development information disclosure [2] - The industry exhibits a "layered" characteristic in performance across different segments, with the aviation and airport sector leading in information disclosure completeness and sustainable development [2] - The logistics and transportation sector still has considerable room for improvement in social responsibility and internal governance [2] Group 3: Structural Challenges - The overall industry faces shortcomings in the "comparability" and "verifiability" of information disclosure, with issues such as non-unified disclosure standards, ambiguous data accounting boundaries, and lack of third-party verification, leading to the risk of "greenwashing" [2] - Although over 90% of sample companies achieved a BB rating or above in sustainable development performance for 2024, there remains a gap in management capabilities, characterized by "grand visions and vague paths" [2] - Many companies have set long-term strategic goals but have not fully established a closed loop from indicator management, data governance to input-output analysis, hindering the implementation of strategies [2]

Core Insights - The "Sustainable Development Blue Book: Sustainable Development Report of China's Transportation Industry Enterprises (2025)" evaluates the progress, challenges, and future paths of sustainability in the transportation sector, based on a sample of 244 listed companies [3][9] - The transportation industry in China is transitioning from an "element-driven, scale expansion" model to an "innovation-driven, quality and efficiency" model, which is crucial for achieving national carbon neutrality goals [3][9] - As of April 2025, 156 companies have disclosed sustainability reports, achieving a disclosure rate of 64%, indicating a growing awareness of sustainability in the industry [3][9] Industry Challenges - The transportation sector exhibits a "layered" performance across its sub-sectors, with the aviation sector leading in sustainability disclosures, while logistics still has significant room for improvement [4][10] - There are issues with the comparability and verifiability of disclosed information, with some companies facing challenges such as non-uniform disclosure standards and lack of third-party verification, leading to "greenwashing" risks [4][10] - Despite over 90% of sampled companies achieving a BB rating or above in sustainability performance for 2024, many still struggle with translating strategic goals into actionable management practices [4][10][11] Recommendations for Development - The report suggests a three-pronged action framework focusing on standards, finance, and technology to enhance sustainability in the transportation sector [5][11] - Establishing a unified ESG indicator system and accounting standards is essential to address the quantification challenges of carbon emissions and value chain responsibilities [5][11] - Financial tools such as green bonds and transition finance should be leveraged to reduce transformation costs, while technology should support initiatives like shore power usage and clean fuel alternatives [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

Core Insights - The railway and highway sector experienced a rise of 1.42% on February 4, with Fulin Transportation leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, up 0.21% [1] Sector Performance - Fulin Transportation (002357) closed at 13.42, up 4.76% with a trading volume of 171,900 shares and a turnover of 230 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Expressway (000755) increased by 3.03% to close at 5.44, with a trading volume of 259,200 shares and a turnover of 142 million yuan [1] - Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway (601333) rose by 2.61% to 3.15, with a trading volume of 702,800 shares and a turnover of 219 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Jilin Expressway (601518) up 2.45%, Tielong Logistics (600125) up 2.21%, and Shenhigao Expressway (600548) up 2.01% [1] Capital Flow - The railway and highway sector saw a net inflow of 400 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.78 million yuan [2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 418 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Major net inflows were observed in Daqin Railway (601006) with 272 million yuan, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (601816) with 131 million yuan [3] - Fulin Transportation (002357) had a net inflow of 17 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 24.8 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Haikou Group (603069) and Fujian Expressway (600033) also showed varying net inflows and outflows among different investor types [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, 2026, with the Transportation ETF (159666) rising by 1.48%, and key holdings such as China Eastern Airlines increasing over 7%, Huaxia Airlines over 5%, and Ningbo Port over 4% [1] - The 2026 Spring Festival travel rush, lasting from February 2 to March 13, is expected to see a record high of 9.5 billion people traveling across regions, driven by both family visits and tourism [1] - National civil aviation passenger transport volume during the Spring Festival is projected to reach 95 million, averaging 2.38 million passengers per day, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [1] Group 2 - The Transportation ETF (159666) and its linked funds (019405/019404) are the only ETFs tracking the CSI All-Share Transportation Index, which includes logistics, railways, highways, shipping ports, and airports, reflecting the overall performance of listed transportation companies in the A-share market [2]

Market Overview - The railway and highway sector experienced a decline of 0.28% on February 3, with Guangshen Railway leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the railway and highway sector included: - Hunan Investment (Code: 000548) with a closing price of 5.78, up 1.94% on a trading volume of 86,600 shares and a turnover of 49.73 million yuan [1] - Jiangxi Changyun (Code: 600561) closed at 7.01, up 1.89% with a trading volume of 64,900 shares and a turnover of 45.22 million yuan [1] - Haikou Group (Code: 603069) closed at 22.84, up 1.33% with a trading volume of 64,800 shares [1] - Conversely, Guangshen Railway (Code: 601333) saw a decline of 1.60%, closing at 3.07 with a trading volume of 768,200 shares and a turnover of 238 million yuan [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Jilin Expressway (Code: 601518) down 1.04% to 2.86 [2] - Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway (Code: 601816) down 0.82% to 4.84 [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The railway and highway sector experienced a net outflow of 179 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 6.61 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Tielong Logistics (Code: 600125) with a net inflow of 22.37 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 24.39 million yuan from retail investors [3] - China Merchants Highway (Code: 001965) had a net inflow of 9.78 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Dongguan Holdings (Code: 000828) saw a net inflow of 9.16 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The railway and highway sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06% on February 2, with Western Entrepreneurship leading the drop. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Hainan Highway saw a closing price of 6.60, with an increase of 3.77% and a trading volume of 640,500 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 425 million yuan [1]. - China Merchants Highway closed at 9.61, up 2.45%, with a trading volume of 288,500 shares and a transaction value of 279 million yuan [1]. - Shandong Highway closed at 10.21, increasing by 1.90%, with a trading volume of 97,200 shares and a transaction value of 99.28 million yuan [1]. - Western Entrepreneurship led the decline with a closing price of 4.97, down 5.15%, with a trading volume of 325,300 shares and a transaction value of 165 million yuan [2]. - Iron Dragon Logistics closed at 6.38, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 260,400 shares and a transaction value of 168 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The railway and highway sector saw a net inflow of 30.83 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 8.58 million yuan [2]. - The main stocks with significant net inflows included Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway with 94.52 million yuan and Hainan Highway with 32.26 million yuan [3]. - Retail investors showed a net outflow in several stocks, including Hainan Highway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, indicating a mixed sentiment among different investor types [3].

Investment Rating - The report rates the railway and highway industry as "Overweight" [2][4]. Core Insights - The freight volume in China is projected to reach 58.7 billion tons in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%. The growth rates for railway, highway, waterway, and civil aviation freight volumes are expected to be 2%, 3.4%, 3.2%, and 13.3% respectively [4]. - Fixed asset investment in transportation is expected to remain high, with an estimated completion of over 3.6 trillion yuan in 2025. The inter-regional personnel flow is projected to reach 66.86 billion person-times, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [4]. - Railway passenger and freight volumes are expected to maintain steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 4.601 billion people and freight volume reaching 5.277 billion tons in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7% and 2% respectively [4]. - The highway sector is anticipated to improve in 2026 after a slowdown in growth in 2025, with freight volume growth of 3.4% in 2025 [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high dividend stocks and potential market value management catalysts in the highway sector, with specific companies such as Anhui Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and Zhejiang Expressway being highlighted [4]. Summary by Sections Railway Transportation - In 2025, the total passenger turnover is expected to reach 1,639.556 billion person-kilometers, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The total freight turnover is projected to be 3,686.909 billion ton-kilometers, growing by 2.8% [4]. - The investment in railway fixed assets is expected to reach 901.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [4]. Highway Transportation - The growth rate of highway freight volume is expected to slow down in 2025 but is projected to improve in 2026 due to stable demand in highway logistics [4]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the highway sector has two main investment themes for the year: traditional high dividend investments and potential market value management catalysts. Recommended companies include Wanhua Expressway, Shandong Expressway, and others [4].