Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures prices have declined, with the main contract reported at 785.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% [1] Group 1: Import and Supply Data - From September 22 to September 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports reached 26.037 million tons, a decrease of 1.467 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore arrivals at 45 ports in China were 23.605 million tons, down by 3.145 million tons week-on-week [2] - The total iron ore arrivals at six northern ports amounted to 10.014 million tons, a decrease of 2.886 million tons week-on-week [2] - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.754 million tons, an increase of 1.506 million tons week-on-week [2] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 28.640 million tons, up by 0.912 million tons week-on-week [2] - Australian shipments were 20.280 million tons, an increase of 1.092 million tons week-on-week, with 17.714 million tons sent to China, up by 2.002 million tons [2] - Brazilian shipments were 8.361 million tons, a decrease of 0.179 million tons week-on-week [2] Group 2: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - The operating rate of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces increased by 0.47% to 84.45%, the highest in over four months [2] - Capacity utilization rose by 0.51% to 90.86%, despite the profit margin of steel mills dropping to a near five-month low of 58.01% [2] - Daily molten iron production increased to 2.4236 million tons, the highest in two months, with a year-on-year growth of 7.78% [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Current iron ore prices are in a phase of "high molten iron rigid support" versus "weak expectation suppression," with limited short-term downside but insufficient rebound momentum [4] - The macroeconomic environment shows diminishing returns from overseas policy easing, while domestic supportive policies are still in development [4] - High molten iron production levels above 2.4 million tons per day support the rigid demand for iron ore, but increasing inventory and steel mill losses may weaken raw material demand [4] - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach ahead of holidays, focusing on light positions and monitoring opportunities for iron ore futures [4] - The current supply-demand fundamentals for iron ore are not significantly imbalanced, with ongoing support from high production levels and inventory reduction at ports [4]