鸡价触底回升

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招商证券:鸡价触底回升 看好8月景气
智通财经网· 2025-08-14 08:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that chicken prices are gradually rebounding due to reduced supply since mid-July, leading to improved profitability for farmers and increased willingness to restock [1][2] - In July, the average price of chicken seedlings was 1.41 yuan per chick, down 43% year-on-year and 38% month-on-month; the average price of live chickens was 6.52 yuan per kilogram, down 12% year-on-year and 9.2% month-on-month [1] - The demand for chicken seedlings is overall positive due to the upcoming school season, although the supply of chicken seedlings has decreased due to increased culling of breeding chickens [1] Group 2 - The price of yellow feathered chickens has shown signs of recovery in late July, with expectations for a favorable market in August [3] - The average price of fast-growing chickens in July was 3.94 yuan per pound, down 19.6% year-on-year but up 3.2% month-on-month; the average price of Xueshan grass chickens was 6.43 yuan per pound, down 27% year-on-year but up 5% month-on-month [3] - The cost of raising yellow feathered chickens has decreased significantly, with costs for leading companies falling to around 5.6 yuan per pound, indicating potential for substantial profit release as prices recover [3][4] Group 3 - The supply of parent stock chickens is expected to tighten in the second half of 2025 due to a significant decrease in overseas imports, which will also affect the supply of commercial broiler chicks in 2026 [2][4] - The current inventory of parent stock chickens is at a historically low level, which may lead to a contraction in supply and set the stage for future price increases [4] - The long-term outlook for the yellow feathered chicken market remains positive, driven by changing consumer habits, implementation of sales bans, and economic recovery boosting consumption [4]