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农林牧渔行业2025年三季报业绩前瞻:养殖板块盈利分化,优质龙头企业盈利能力提升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-11 14:48
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨农产品 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻:养殖板 块盈利分化,优质龙头企业盈利能力提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 生猪养殖行业已经从过去的快速发展阶段步入到稳态发展阶段,中长期养殖产能调控已经成为 行业新常态,优质养殖企业的利润底部和盈利中枢有望大幅抬升,我们看好养殖板块中长期的 格局优化,重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份、德康农牧、神农集团和巨星农牧。单三季度养殖板 块盈利有所分化,优质养殖企业仍然实现了较好的业绩;单三季度黄羽鸡价格触底回升,带动 禽养殖板块盈利能力逐步回升;水产料行业景气度持续兑现,龙头企业海大集团有望实现量利 齐升;宠物食品自有品牌高增长延续,海外工厂凸显外销韧性,重点推荐乖宝宠物和中宠股份。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490513080003 SAC:S0490519060003 SAC:S0490525080006 SFC:BQT624 陈佳 顾熀乾 卜凡星 王煜坤 1 [Table_Title 农林牧渔行业2] 2025 年三季报业绩前瞻:养殖板 块盈利分化,优质龙 ...
农林牧渔行业周报:猪价旺季不旺,关注节后补库情况-20250928
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 08:19
禽类养殖: 随着天气逐渐转热,动物蛋白消费表现较为平淡,供给较多的背景下整体价格持续调整,目前板块景气度底部企稳。 近期价格持续偏弱的背景下,屠宰企业亏损日益增加,养殖户出栏积极性提升进一步对价格造成压力。近期黄羽鸡价 格出现较多调整,主要系下游需求偏弱导致,预计随着消费端的逐步好转,黄鸡价格有望跟随猪价回暖,行业可以取 得较好盈利。 牧业: 截至 9 月 19 日,我山东省活牛价格 27.24 元/公斤,环比-0.15%,同比+11.69%,目前逐步进入动物蛋白消费旺季, 短期受政策与天气扰动销售受阻,随着消费旺季到来牛肉价格有望稳步上涨;奶牛方面截至 9 月 19 日主产区合同内 平均收购价为 3.03 元/公斤,环比没有变化,同比-3.50%,散奶价格在备货旺季企稳回升,预计短期去化速度有所放 缓,但是在行业资金压力大&持续亏损的背景下,行业产能有望持续去化。我们预计随着供给端产能去化的逐步传导, 原奶价格在明年有望企稳回升。肉牛方面近期犊牛与活牛价格已经出现上涨,预计新一轮肉牛周期有望开启,板块景 气度有望稳健向上。 种植链: 投资建议 行情回顾: 本周(2025.09.22-2025.09.26)农 ...
立华股份跌2.03%,成交额8345.85万元,主力资金净流出444.22万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 02:17
Company Overview - Lihua Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feather chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with chicken revenue accounting for 75.84%, pig revenue 23.31%, and goose revenue 0.86% [3] - The company is classified under the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, specifically in the livestock sector focusing on chicken farming [3] Stock Performance - As of September 25, Lihua's stock price decreased by 2.03% to 22.25 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 18.629 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Lihua's stock has increased by 17.97%, with a recent decline of 1.90% over the last five trading days, and increases of 15.46% over the last 20 days and 19.62% over the last 60 days [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Lihua reported a revenue of 8.353 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.02%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 74.10% to 149 million CNY [3] - The company has distributed a total of 2.063 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.114 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [4] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Lihua had 20,900 shareholders, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous period, with an average of 30,104 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 4.91% [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, E Fund's ChiNext ETF holds 7.6594 million shares, an increase of 627,700 shares compared to the previous period [4] Market Activity - Lihua has appeared on the stock market's "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on April 8 [3] - As of September 25, the net outflow of main funds was 4.4422 million CNY, with significant buying and selling activity recorded [1]
招商证券:鸡价迎景气拐点 养殖端逐步扭亏
智通财经网· 2025-09-22 08:17
Core Viewpoint - The poultry industry is experiencing a recovery in chicken prices, particularly for white-feathered and yellow-feathered chickens, driven by supply adjustments and improved profitability for farmers [1][2][3]. Group 1: White-feathered Chicken - In August, the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 4% year-on-year but up 133% month-on-month; the average price of meat chickens was 7.17 yuan per kilogram, down 6% year-on-year but up 9.9% month-on-month [1]. - The reduction in chicken supply in August, along with distributors actively stocking up for the school season, has provided strong support for chicken prices, leading to significant improvements in farmer profitability [1]. - The overseas breeding volume has significantly decreased since the beginning of the year, and it is expected that the supply of parent meat chicken seedlings will be tight in the second half of 2025, which will also affect the supply of commercial meat chicken seedlings in 2026 [1][3]. Group 2: Yellow-feathered Chicken - In August, the average price of fast-growing chickens was 5.11 yuan per pound, down 3.3% year-on-year but up 30% month-on-month; the average price of snow mountain grass chickens was 8.51 yuan per pound, down 3% year-on-year but up 32% month-on-month [2]. - The supply of yellow-feathered chickens remains relatively abundant, but most farming entities have reported losses by mid-year, leading to expectations of accelerated elimination of outdated production capacity [2]. - As supply and demand conditions improve, yellow chicken prices have rebounded, and high-quality production capacity has turned profitable [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The demand for quality parent chicken seedlings is expected to remain strong in 2025, despite an increase in imports of grandparent breeding chickens in 2024 [3]. - The current inventory of parent breeding chickens is at a historically low level, and the ongoing industry losses have set the stage for future price increases [3]. - Long-term prospects for the ice-fresh yellow-feathered chicken market remain promising due to changing consumer habits, the implementation of sales bans, and economic recovery boosting consumption [3].
农林牧渔行业点评报告:进口扰动及需求好转驱动鸡肉价格上行,蛋鸡产能偏高或压制蛋价上行空间
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-22 03:40
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward trend in chicken prices is driven by import disruptions and improved demand, while high egg-laying hen capacity may limit the upward potential of egg prices [4][14] - The white feather chicken price increased in August due to supply constraints and demand from back-to-school stocking, with an average selling price of 7.17 yuan/kg, up 0.64 yuan/kg month-on-month [4][14] - The yellow feather chicken price also rose in August, reaching an average of 12.39 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 19.57%, supported by seasonal demand [5][27] - Egg supply pressure remains high, with the average wholesale price of eggs at 6.22 yuan/kg, up 2.30% month-on-month, but the capacity of laying hens continues to limit price increases [36] Summary by Sections White Feather Chicken - In August, the average selling price was 7.17 yuan/kg, with a profit of 0.86 yuan/chicken, marking a recovery from losses [4][14] - The total stock of white feather breeding chickens was 2.1421 million sets, up 2.6% month-on-month [15] Yellow Feather Chicken - The average selling price in August was 12.39 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 19.57% [5][27] - The total stock of yellow feather breeding chickens was 2.8539 million sets, up 2.11% month-on-month [27] Egg Production - The average price of egg chicks was 3.00 yuan/chick, down 22.08% month-on-month, while the total stock of laying hens reached 1.317 billion, up 1.93% month-on-month [36] Company Performance - Yisheng shares sold 57.9185 million chicks in August, with a selling price of 3.69 yuan/chick, up 1.93% month-on-month [39] - Wen's shares sold 117 million chickens in August, with a revenue of 2.956 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 27.63% [58] - Lihua shares sold 52.5549 million chickens, with a revenue of 1.32 billion yuan, also showing a month-on-month increase of 27.66% [59]
立华股份股价跌5%,大成基金旗下1只基金重仓,持有147.39万股浮亏损失175.39万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:05
Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Lihua Food Group's stock price dropped by 5% to 22.61 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 350 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.40%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 18.931 billion CNY [1] - Lihua Food Group, established on June 19, 1997, and listed on February 18, 2019, is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feathered chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with revenue composition being 75.84% from chickens, 23.31% from pigs, and 0.86% from geese [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, Dachen Fund has a significant position in Lihua shares, with its Dachen Consumer Theme Mixed A Fund holding 1.4739 million shares, accounting for 3.2% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The Dachen Consumer Theme Mixed A Fund, established on November 8, 2011, has a latest scale of 746 million CNY, with a year-to-date return of 13.5% and a one-year return of 41.61%, ranking 5417 out of 8172 and 4182 out of 7980 respectively [2] - The fund manager, Qi Weizhong, has been in position for 5 years and 230 days, with a total asset scale of 3.826 billion CNY, achieving the best fund return of 123.25% and the worst return of -9.84% during his tenure [2]
立华股份股价跌5%,银华基金旗下1只基金重仓,持有212.33万股浮亏损失252.67万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 07:05
Company Overview - Lihua Food Group Co., Ltd. is located in Wujin District, Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province, and was established on June 19, 1997. The company was listed on February 18, 2019. Its main business involves the production and sales of yellow feathered chickens, pigs, and meat geese. The revenue composition is as follows: chicken accounts for 75.84%, pigs 23.31%, and geese 0.86% [1]. Stock Performance - On September 18, Lihua shares fell by 5%, trading at 22.61 CNY per share, with a transaction volume of 350 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.40%. The total market capitalization is 18.931 billion CNY [1]. Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten heavy stocks of funds, one fund under Yinhua Fund holds Lihua shares. The Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stock Initiation A (005106) held 2.1233 million shares in the second quarter, unchanged from the previous period, accounting for 6.92% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest heavy stock. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 2.5267 million CNY [2]. Fund Performance - The Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stock Initiation A (005106) was established on September 28, 2017, with a latest scale of 430 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 12.11%, ranking 3489 out of 4222 in its category; the one-year return is 25.5%, ranking 3512 out of 3804; and since inception, the return is 44.2% [2]. Fund Manager - The fund manager of Yinhua Agricultural Industry Stock Initiation A (005106) is Tang Neng, who has a cumulative tenure of 10 years and 120 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 2.269 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 114.41% and the worst being -40.93% [3].
立华股份(300761.SZ):老乡鸡是公司直接供货的黄羽鸡客户
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-17 07:11
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Lihua Co., Ltd. (300761.SZ) directly supplies yellow-feathered chickens to the customer, Laoxiangji [1]
畜牧ETF(159867)连续6日净流入,黄羽鸡行情逐渐升温
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 07:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the poultry industry, particularly the yellow-feathered chicken sector, has returned to profitability since August, with individual chicken profits estimated at 3-4 yuan, potentially offsetting earlier losses in the year [1] - The Pacific Securities report highlights a significant turnaround in the yellow chicken industry's integrated breeding model, which has led to substantial profits in August, contrasting with previous losses [1] - The recent increase in yellow chicken prices is attributed to low production capacity and a recovery in consumer demand, with expectations for continued price rebounds as the autumn and winter consumption peak approaches [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Livestock Breeding Index account for 65.57% of the index, including major companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [2]
立华股份股价涨5%,兴银基金旗下1只基金重仓,持有14.28万股浮盈赚取16.56万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 02:54
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lihua Co., Ltd. experienced a 5% increase in stock price, reaching 24.34 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 355 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.37%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 20.379 billion yuan [1] - Lihua Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feathered chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with revenue composition being 75.84% from chickens, 23.31% from pigs, and 0.86% from geese [1] - The company was established on June 19, 1997, and was listed on February 18, 2019, located in Wujin District, Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province [1] Group 2 - Xiyin Fund has a significant holding in Lihua Co., Ltd., with its fund "Xiyin Smart Consumer Mixed A" holding 142,800 shares, accounting for 3.29% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 29.34% and a one-year return of 59.24%, with a total fund size of 21.0632 million [2] - The fund manager, Yuan Zuodong, has a tenure of 5 years and 211 days, with the fund's best return during his tenure being 63.57% and the worst being 14.61% [2]