Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]

11月17日，立华股份盘中下跌2.03%，截至09:54，报20.77元/股，成交3816.21万元，换手率0.29%，总 市值173.90亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出489.09万元，特大单买入372.31万元，占比9.76%，卖出358.29万元，占 比9.39%；大单买入401.92万元，占比10.53%，卖出905.03万元，占比23.72%。 立华股份今年以来股价涨10.13%，近5个交易日跌3.93%，近20日跌5.59%，近60日涨3.75%。 截至9月30日，立华股份股东户数1.60万，较上期减少23.50%；人均流通股39351股，较上期增加 30.72%。2025年1月-9月，立华股份实现营业收入134.93亿元，同比增长6.38%；归母净利润2.87亿元， 同比减少75.27%。 分红方面，立华股份A股上市后累计派现20.63亿元。近三年，累计派现11.14亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，立华股份十大流通股东中，国泰中证畜牧养殖ETF（159865）位 居第十大流通股东，持股746.03万股，为新进股东。易方达创业板ETF（159915）退出十大流通股东之 列。 ...

投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2025.11.10-2025.11.14）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 3050.01 点(周环比+2.70%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4628.14 点（周环比-1.08%），深证综指收于 2511.55 点（周环比-0.31%），上证综指收于 3990.49 点（周环比-0.18%），科 创板收于 1361.23 点（周环比-3.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑输上证综指。 生猪养殖： 目前猪价仍处于下跌趋势，全行业处于亏损状态，同时从出栏均重角度看，猪价下跌的过程中行业库存未曾出现大幅 下降，本周生猪出栏均重为 128.48 公斤/头，依旧处于历史中高区间。从供给端角度来看，接下来几个月生猪出栏环 比持续增加，叠加控制二育增强，预计季节性累库空间有限，生猪价格仍有下探空间。年前政策端主动去产能或持续 推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年生猪价格中枢。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空间，近期行业 产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业产能去化，目 前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧有较为优秀的中枢利润，且 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lihua Food Group's stock has seen a significant increase, with a rise of 5.07% to 21.75 CNY per share, and a total market capitalization of 18.211 billion CNY [1] - Lihua Food Group, established on June 19, 1997, and listed on February 18, 2019, primarily engages in the production and sales of yellow feathered chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with chicken revenue accounting for 75.84%, pig revenue 23.31%, and goose revenue 0.86% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, Lihua shares are a significant investment for Ping An Fund, with the Ping An CSI Livestock Breeding ETF holding 216,300 shares, representing 2.63% of the fund's net value, ranking as the tenth largest holding [2] - The Ping An CSI Livestock Breeding ETF, established on March 4, 2021, has a current size of 1.79 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 15.5% and a one-year return of 6.27% [2] - The fund manager, Weng Xin, has been in charge for 1 year and 332 days, with the fund's total asset size at 3.68 billion CNY, achieving a best return of 52.05% and a worst return of -15.51% during the tenure [2]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) celebrates its 10th anniversary since its listing, demonstrating resilience and steady development through industry cycles, policy changes, and pandemic impacts, while evolving from traditional farming to a modern agricultural complex [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 75.788 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan [1] - The debt ratio decreased to 49.41%, enhancing financial safety and risk resistance [1] - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.994 billion yuan, which accounts for 38% of the net profit [1] Business Evolution - Wens Foodstuff has undergone three phases: foundation building (2015-2018), adjustment during the African swine fever crisis (2019-2021), and recovery and optimization (2022-2024) [2][3][4] - The company maintained a leading annual growth rate in pig and chicken output during its initial phase, achieving an average ROIC of around 25% [2] - During the adjustment phase, the company faced challenges but maintained industry-leading liquidity and operational continuity [3] Production and Cost Management - By Q3 2025, pig output increased significantly to 9.736 million heads, a year-on-year growth of 120.63% [4] - The comprehensive breeding cost for pigs decreased to 12.4 yuan per kilogram, solidifying the company's position in the industry [4] - The chicken output reached 948 million heads in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has focused on cost management as a strategic core, establishing a comprehensive cost control system across the entire industry chain [6][10] - Wens Foodstuff has developed a domestic breeding chip to reduce reliance on imports, significantly lowering detection costs [6] - The company is transitioning to a more centralized cooperative model, enhancing efficiency and disease control in its farming operations [8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Wens Foodstuff is positioned as a leading player in the industry, with a dynamic market response and a focus on long-term value creation [11][13] - The company is transitioning from a traditional farming model to a modern agricultural and food group, emphasizing intelligent, green, and branded growth [14][15] - Future strategies include enhancing production efficiency, integrating supply chains, and improving brand value to navigate industry changes and consumer trends [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company demonstrates strong performance in the poultry and pig farming sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability driven by industry recovery and cost leadership [1][2][3]. Poultry Sector - The company achieved a total output of 410 million yellow feathered chickens in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1]. - The average selling price for yellow feathered chickens in Q3 2025 is estimated at 11.54 yuan per kilogram, with a cost of 11.4 yuan per kilogram, resulting in an average profit of approximately 0.3 yuan per chicken [1]. - The poultry segment is expected to contribute profits of around 40 to 50 million yuan [1]. Pig Farming Sector - The company reported a total output of 1.51 million pigs in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90% [2]. - The estimated price for pigs in Q3 2025 is around 13.9 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of approximately 160 to 180 yuan per pig, contributing profits of about 90 to 100 million yuan from the pig segment [2]. - The company’s pig farming costs are among the industry leaders, with expectations for continued cost reduction and pricing advantages due to proximity to high-demand markets [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its market presence outside of East China, with an expected annual growth rate of 8-10% in yellow feathered chicken output [3]. - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 815 million yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 2.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.97, 1.99, and 2.47 yuan [3].

Core Insights - The chicken industry is experiencing significant performance divergence among listed companies in Q3, with some achieving remarkable profit growth while others face substantial declines [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shengnong Development (002299) reported a net profit increase of 202.82% year-on-year, reaching 1.159 billion yuan, despite a 11.4% decline in Q3 net profit [1]. - Chunxue Food (605567) saw a staggering 1320.44% increase in net profit for the first three quarters, totaling 33.87 million yuan, with Q3 net profit growth of 190.90% driven by cost optimization and export growth [1]. - Lihua Co. (300761) experienced a 75.27% decline in net profit for the first three quarters, with Q3 decline further expanding to 76.40% due to downward pressure on yellow feather chicken prices [1]. - Yisheng Co. (002458) faced an 89.42% drop in net profit for the first three quarters, with negative growth in both revenue and net profit in Q3, although showing improvement on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. - Minhe Co. (002234) continued to incur losses, reporting a net loss of 230 million yuan for the first three quarters [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The fluctuations in the chicken industry are attributed to a combination of price cycles and cost disturbances, with yellow feather chicken selling at an average price of 13.53 yuan/kg in Q3 [2]. - The average price of white feather chicken products in September was 8,663 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.8% decrease month-on-month and a 6.4% year-on-year decline, primarily due to high inventory levels and weaker-than-expected consumer demand [2]. - The industry anticipates a potential recovery in both volume and price in Q4, driven by upcoming holidays and limited supply growth, which may support price increases for yellow feather chicken [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rapid decline in pork prices since October may lead to lower-than-expected demand for chicken as a substitute [3]. - Leading companies are focusing on full industry chain integration and channel structure upgrades to build competitive advantages, making them attractive to investors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Lihua Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price, dropping 3.14% to 20.65 CNY per share, with a total market value of 17.29 billion CNY and a cumulative drop of 6.77% over three days [1] - Lihua Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the production and sales of yellow feather chickens, pigs, and meat geese, with chicken revenue accounting for 75.84%, pig revenue for 23.31%, and goose revenue for 0.86% [1] - The company was established on June 19, 1997, and went public on February 18, 2019 [1] Group 2 - Yongying Fund has a significant holding in Lihua Co., Ltd., with its Yongying Qixin Mixed A fund holding 200,700 shares, representing 7.62% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 134,500 CNY today and a total floating loss of 301,100 CNY during the three-day decline [2] - Yongying Qixin Mixed A fund was established on June 4, 2024, with a current scale of 6.71 million CNY and has achieved a return of 46.87% this year [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 138 million yuan for Q3 2025, with a year-to-date revenue of 13.49 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, but a significant decline in net profit by 75.3% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 4.09 billion yuan, 4.27 billion yuan, and 5.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.6%, 3.0%, and 5.4% respectively [1] - The net profit for the same quarters was 206 million yuan, -57 million yuan, and 138 million yuan [1] - As of September 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.2%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from June [1] Livestock Production - The company reported a total of 1.5058 million pigs sold from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 90.2%, with a target of 2 million pigs for the year [2] - The average cost of raising pigs decreased from 12.8 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025 to 12.3 yuan/kg in June, with a target of 12 yuan/kg by year-end [2] - The net profit from the pig business for Q3 is estimated to be around 100 million yuan [2] Poultry Production - The company sold 415 million yellow feather chickens from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [3] - The quarterly sales figures for yellow feather chickens were 120 million, 140 million, and 150 million, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 11.9%, and 10.4% [3] - The cost of raising chickens decreased to below 11 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025, but saw a slight increase in Q3 due to rising raw material prices [3] Future Projections - The company expects to maintain pig sales at 2 million heads annually from 2025 to 2027, with chicken sales projected to reach 568 million, 619 million, and 668 million respectively [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 18.242 billion yuan, 20.558 billion yuan, and 21.909 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 447 million yuan, 1.551 billion yuan, and 1.666 billion yuan [4] - Adjustments in projections are based on revised expectations for pig and chicken prices, production costs, and sales volumes [4]