资金流向方面，主力资金净流入58.92万元，特大单买入391.09万元，占比8.98%，卖出310.35万元，占 比7.12%；大单买入673.48万元，占比15.46%，卖出695.30万元，占比15.96%。 立华股份今年以来股价涨1.45%，近5个交易日涨1.30%，近20日涨5.62%，近60日跌9.46%。 1月8日，立华股份盘中上涨2.04%，截至09:52，报21.05元/股，成交4356.21万元，换手率0.33%，总市 值176.25亿元。 资料显示，江苏立华食品集团股份有限公司位于江苏省常州市武进区牛塘镇漕溪路66号，成立日期1997 年6月19日，上市日期2019年2月18日，公司主营业务涉及黄羽鸡、生猪、肉鹅的生产与销售。主营业务 收入构成为：鸡收入75.84%，猪23.31%，鹅0.86%。 立华股份所属申万行业为：农林牧渔-养殖业-肉鸡养殖。所属概念板块包括：猪肉概念、食品安全、养 鸡、中盘、社保重仓等。 责任编辑：小浪快报 截至9月30日，立华股份股东户数1.60万，较上期减少23.50%；人均流通股39351股，较上期增加 30.72%。2025年1月-9月，立华股份实现营业收 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|农林牧渔 证券研究报告 元旦前猪价反弹明显，牛肉进口配额保障政策落地 [TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： [TAblE_G rADE] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： TAblE_Author 钱浩] SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 SFC CE No. BND274 021-38003634 shqianhao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 郑颖欣 SAC 执证号：S0260520070001 021-38003632 zhengyingxin@gf.com.cn 分析师： 高一岑 SAC 执证号：S0260525100002 021-38003780 gaoyicen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李雅琦 SAC 执证号：S0260524080006 021-68827265 liyaqi@gf.com.cn -4% 4% 11% 19% 26% 34% 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 ...

智通财经12月30日讯（记者 刘建）2025年的黄羽鸡市场堪称一场 "冰与火" 交织的行业特写：上半年行 情触及近年低谷，养殖端全员亏损；8月后价格快速回暖，叠加企业降本增效，全年或有望实现盈亏平 衡。 展望2026年，散户加速退出与头部企业规模化扩张的两极格局将持续深化，头部企业预计仍将维持10% 的高增长速度，行业集中度提升。此外，还有业内人士预测，明年冰鲜与深加工将成为企业进一步加码 发展的趋势，行业将整体从"周期博弈"向"价值成长"转型，价格亦有望温和复苏。 2025年行情"先抑后扬" 盈利修复上半年亏损 "上半年卖一只亏一只，还好下半年行情回暖才缓过来。" 一位黄羽鸡养殖散户向记者吐槽，这一感受 正是行业上半年低迷态势的真实写照。 温氏股份相关人士告诉记者，"公司2026年肉鸡上市量目标为在2025年上市量的基础上增加10%左右。 未来，公司致力于与同行企业一起，做好中华土鸡推广工作，做大市场空间。中长期，公司希望通过黄 鸡北上、毛鸡下乡、优势区域精耕、食材食品转型等方式，稳步提升肉鸡上市量。" 此外，有业内人士告诉记者，"明年价格有望实现温和修复，前期产能去化与需求稳步复苏支撑价格中 枢上行；冰鲜 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The swine breeding industry is currently facing low prices and losses, but policy adjustments are accelerating capacity reduction, with expectations for a price rebound in the second half of 2026 [1][2] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing oversupply, with a cautious outlook for 2026 prices due to a significant decline in breeding stock updates [1][7] - The yellow feather chicken industry is expected to have flat profitability in 2026, with high breeding stock levels [1][8] - The global pet food market is steadily growing, with significant contributions from Chinese brands through premiumization and branding strategies [1][9] Core Insights and Arguments - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, indicating relatively low production capacity but improved efficiency [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission have initiated multiple discussions to implement production capacity control policies, with an expected elimination of 1 million breeding sows by January 2026 [2] - Despite a potential increase in the overall output of listed pig companies in 2026, this will not hinder the emergence of a new cycle due to limited growth in output [6] - Major companies like Muyuan and Dekang have successfully controlled costs, with Muyuan achieving a cost of 11.3 yuan/kg and Dekang at 11.9 yuan/kg [4] Company-Specific Developments - TianKang Bio's acquisition of 51% of Jiangdu Livestock is expected to significantly enhance its output and competitiveness, with production costs potentially dropping to 11.5 yuan or lower [5] - The average ROE for Muyuan is 37.5% since 2018, while Dekang's is 12.3%, indicating strong long-term profitability and capital return [4] Market Dynamics - The overall output of pigs is expected to increase in 2026, but the growth will be limited due to ongoing policy adjustments [6] - The white feather chicken market is projected to see a cautious price outlook for 2026, with a significant drop in breeding stock updates [7] - The yellow feather chicken industry is likely to experience similar profitability challenges as in the current year, with potential losses in several quarters [8] Pet Food Market Trends - The global pet food market is projected to reach $207.4 billion in retail sales by 2024, with significant growth rates across various segments [9] - Chinese brands are gaining market share, with companies like MaiFuDi and GuaiBao showing substantial growth in e-commerce sales [10][11] - GuaiBao's market share is approaching 10%, and it is expected to become one of the top two domestic brands [12] Challenges in the Beef Industry - The beef industry faces challenges such as long breeding cycles and difficulties in replenishment, with a notable decline in the number of breeding cows and calves [14] - The price of beef has seen a significant drop since 2023, but a potential increase in prices is anticipated due to reduced production capacity and government investigations into beef imports [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the swine breeding, poultry, and pet food industries, as well as the challenges faced by the beef sector, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investment considerations.

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，展望2026年，农林牧渔板块投资机会或主要聚焦于周期与成 长两个维度：1)周期。生猪反内卷&行业亏损双管齐下，母猪产能重启去化，预计26H2猪价或逐步回 暖。祖代鸡引种同比下滑，看好种禽端景气。2)成长。国内龙头饲企强者恒强，有望将国内成熟的竞争 范式复制到海外市场，打开成长空间。生物育种产业化积极推进，具备核心品种优势的头部种企市占率 有望迎来加速提升。 招商证券主要观点如下： 禽养殖：白鸡种禽端景气可期，2026年黄鸡或有较好盈利 1)白羽鸡：受海外引种大幅下滑及种鸡性能下降影响，预计2026年优质父母代鸡苗供给偏紧，后续也将 影响商品代鸡苗的供给。看好种禽端景气。2)黄羽鸡：当前父母代种鸡存栏已降至历史偏低位水平，再 加之2025年行业亏损半年以上，供给收缩为后续鸡价上涨奠定基础。黄鸡养殖成本回落至低位，鸡价回 暖后有望大幅释放盈利弹性。 种业：玉米种业持续去库存，重视粮食安全 在全球极端气候频发、国际贸易摩擦不断、农产品供需存在区域及结构上不平衡背景下，国家粮食安全 战略上升到前所未有的高度，看好种植端及种业景气。1)水稻种业：2025年国内杂交水稻种子供应充 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [9]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.79% week-on-week, but it has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The pig farming industry is currently facing a downward price trend, with an average pig price of 11.58 yuan/kg, indicating ongoing losses across the sector [22][23]. - Poultry farming is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of the price cycle, with white feather chicken prices at 7.35 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight recovery in profits [29]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices in Shandong at 26.68 yuan/kg [36]. - The planting industry is witnessing a tightening supply-demand situation, with corn prices rising to 2244.29 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases [41][42]. - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [55]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 130.18 kg, with ongoing losses in the industry prompting a reduction in production capacity [23][22]. - The report anticipates further price declines in the short term, but a potential recovery in the medium to long term due to improved profit margins for leading companies [23][22]. 2. Poultry Farming - White feather chicken prices are under pressure, while yellow feather chicken prices are showing resilience due to improved demand and reduced supply [29]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve as consumer demand recovers [29]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is poised for price increases, supported by a seasonal demand surge and reduced supply from imports [36]. - Dairy prices are stabilizing, with average purchase prices for raw milk at 3.02 yuan/kg, indicating a potential for recovery in the dairy sector [39]. 4. Planting Industry - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2244.29 yuan/ton, reflecting a tightening supply situation [41]. - The report highlights the potential for improved conditions in the planting sector if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather [42]. 5. Feed and Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with pig feed at 3.33 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are trending upwards, particularly for shrimp and fish [55][60].

广东省农科院专 家赴惠州市博罗 县开展黄羽鸡产 业全链深度调研 _南方+_南方 plus 为贯彻落实省农 科院与博罗县关 于"百千万工 程"和绿美广东 生态建设的合作 部署，推进省农 科院科技支撑博 罗县特色农业产 业体系建设，12 月17-18日，由 广东省农科院动 科所徐斌正高级 畜牧师、李莹研 究员、张厂副研 究员、马新燕高 级畜牧师，动卫 所孙敏华研究员 及加工所程镜蓉 副研究员组成的 黄羽鸡专家服务 团赴惠州市博罗 地特色养殖提供 精准技术指导； 在屠宰与深加工 端，专家团队围 绕黄羽鸡产品保 鲜锁鲜、品质管 控、食材安全和 县开展黄羽鸡产 业全链深度调 研，旨在了解和 掌握博罗县黄羽 鸡产业特色企业 经营现状和技术 需求，为产业全 链高质量可持续 发展问诊把脉， 助推博罗县黄羽 鸡全链产值率先 突破百亿元。博 罗县畜牧兽医事 务中心对本次调 研予以大力支 持。 博罗县是惠州市 重要的黄羽鸡主 产区，2024年全 县出栏肉鸡 8412.17万羽， 全链产值达 64.34亿元；同 时面临产业链条 偏短、三产融合 不足、品牌价值 不显、成果转化 不畅等难题。专 家团队深入博罗 县建农畜牧有限 公司、博罗 ...

在"媒体+"赋能 之下，近日，广 东省农业农村厅 牵头召开黄羽鸡 出海专题会议， 计划制定三年行 动方案，锚 定"人美、鸡 美、生态美"的 发展目标，为这 一特色产业注入 新动能。从本土 深耕到全球布 局，广东黄羽鸡 产业正经历一场 以品质为基、媒 体为翼、出海为 核的转型变革， 成为乡村产业振 兴的生动注脚。 "媒体+"为翼 广 东黄羽鸡出海破 局产业突围新路 径_南方+_南方 plus 优势与困 境交织 黄羽鸡产 业亟需转 型 黄羽鸡的独特价 值的是其产业发 展的天然底气。 黄羽鸡的肉质口 感与风味精准契 合当下消费者对 高品质、特色化 肉类的追求。随 着健康饮食理念 深化，黄羽鸡适 配生态养殖的特 性愈发凸显，既 满足了消费者对 食材天然安全性 的需求，也 为"土鸡村"等特 色乡村形态的打 造提供了产业支 撑。 无鸡不成宴。在 广东，黄羽鸡年 消费量高达10亿 只以上，占据全 国总消费量的四 分之一强，展现 出强劲的本土市 场根基。 当然，黄羽鸡产 业发展还面临多 重结构性难题： 散户养殖技术落 后，抗风险能力 薄弱，难以适配 规模化、标准化 发展需求；品牌 影响力不足，市 场认知度局限于 区域范围；产 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agricultural sector, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in the near term [2][13]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with the agricultural index underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13]. - The pig farming industry is facing a downward price trend, with the average pig price at 11.48 yuan/kg, indicating a continued loss across the sector [21][22]. - Poultry farming shows signs of stabilization, with white feather chicken prices at 7.33 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase, while yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand [28][31]. - The beef market is expected to see price increases as it enters the consumption peak season, with live cattle prices at 26.68 yuan/kg [33]. - The planting sector is experiencing tight supply conditions, with corn prices rising to 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating potential for price increases if crop yields decline [37][38]. - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing upward trends [51][55]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.63 kg, with prices expected to continue declining due to excess supply and ongoing losses in the industry [22][21]. - The report suggests focusing on low-cost, high-quality enterprises such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [22][24]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white feather chicken market is under pressure, but yellow feather chicken prices are improving due to better demand and reduced supply [28][31]. - The overall profitability in poultry farming is expected to improve if consumer demand recovers [28][31]. 3. Livestock - The beef market is anticipated to rise as it enters the peak consumption season, with live cattle prices showing a year-on-year increase [33]. - The dairy sector is experiencing a reduction in stock, with raw milk prices expected to stabilize in the coming year [33]. 4. Planting Chain - Corn prices are on the rise, with a current price of 2238.57 yuan/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [37][38]. - The planting sector is expected to improve if there are significant reductions in crop yields due to adverse weather conditions [37][38]. 5. Feed & Aquatic Products - Feed prices are stabilizing, with pig feed prices at 3.32 yuan/kg, while aquatic product prices are showing positive trends [51][55]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring price movements in the feed and aquatic sectors for investment opportunities [51][55].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the accelerated reduction of pig production capacity and highlights investment opportunities in raw milk and beef cattle sectors [2][15]. Livestock Farming - As of December 12, the average price for lean pigs in China is 11.03 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous week but down 33.2% year-on-year. The industry continues to face significant supply pressure and losses due to short-term demand stagnation and regional epidemics [7][15]. - The number of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in October, indicating a more pronounced decline compared to September. The winter season is noted as a high-risk period for pig diseases, which may further impact production capacity [15]. - Recommended leading companies include Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture and New Hope Liuhe. Companies with potential for operational turnaround include Zhengbang Technology, while smaller firms like Tiankang Biological and Shennong Group are also suggested for consideration [15]. - For broiler chickens, the average price for live chickens and chicks is 3.65 CNY/jin and 3.54 CNY/chick, respectively, both showing a week-on-week increase of 1.4% [15]. Dairy Sector - The current price for fresh milk in major production areas is 3.02 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.2% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue reducing capacity due to long-term losses and financial pressures [16]. - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand as previous capacity reductions take effect, with a positive outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2026-2027 [16]. - Recommended companies in the dairy sector include Yurun Agriculture and Modern Farming [16]. Feed and Animal Health - The report notes a mixed performance in aquatic product prices, with a significant rebound in white shrimp prices due to previous disease outbreaks and delayed stocking [17]. - The aquaculture industry is expected to improve in 2025 compared to 2023-2024, although profitability is projected to remain lower than pre-2023 levels, necessitating upgrades in feed formulations and farming techniques [17]. - Leading feed companies are expected to enhance their market share domestically and expand internationally, leveraging their cost advantages [17]. - Key companies to watch in the animal health sector include Keqian Biological, Pulaike, Ruipu Biological, and Biological Shares, as they expand into pet healthcare [17]. Crop Sector - The domestic corn spot price is 2357 CNY/ton, remaining stable, while soybean meal prices have increased by 1.5% to 3159 CNY/ton [18]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring weather conditions in South America and trade factors affecting soybean prices [18]. - Companies to focus on in the seed industry include Suqian Agricultural Development, Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [18]. Pet Food Industry - The global production layout of pet food companies is maturing, with limited impact from trade frictions on overseas operations. The domestic market shows high growth potential, driven by functional and health-oriented products [20]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards consolidation, with leading companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Shares showing strong brand performance [20]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry growth and the rise of domestic brands [20].