Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Lihua Food Group Co., Ltd. reported a decline in average sales prices for yellow feathered chickens and pork in June, while sales volumes increased, indicating a "volume up, price down" scenario [2][3]. Sales Performance - In June, Lihua sold 43.83 million meat chickens, generating revenue of 942 million yuan, with an average sales price of 9.79 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 8.13% in sales volume and 15.74% in revenue, and a year-on-year decline of 29.72% in average price [2]. - For the first half of the year, Lihua sold a total of 260 million yellow feathered chickens, with cumulative revenue of 6.203 billion yuan, marking the lowest average sales price for meat chickens in June [2]. Pork Sales - In June, Lihua sold 169,200 pigs, with revenue of 303 million yuan and an average sales price of 14.54 yuan/kg, showing a month-on-month increase in sales volume and revenue, but a year-on-year decline in average price [3]. - Cumulatively, Lihua sold 949,600 pigs in the first half of the year, generating 1.765 billion yuan in revenue, significantly exceeding the previous year's figures [3]. Market Trends - The yellow feathered chicken market is experiencing weak demand, leading to lower prices despite a decrease in supply [3][4]. - The overall trend for pork prices in the first half of the year showed a "first drop, then rise" pattern, with the average price for the first half at 14.77 yuan/kg, down 3.92% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - Demand for pork is expected to increase in the second half of the year due to seasonal factors and upcoming holidays, which may support prices [5]. - The third quarter is typically a peak season for yellow feathered chicken consumption, with expectations for increased household consumption as schools are on break, potentially leading to a price recovery [5].

港股公司报告 | 首次覆盖报告 2）黄鸡业务：种源优势构筑核心支撑，产品结构顺应行业趋势。在种源方面，公司在黄鸡 育种领域构建了行业领先的研发体系和基因资源库，满足市场多元化的需求。目前公司已构 建包含 45 个品系的黄鸡种质矩阵。通过持续优化的产品矩阵，公司市占率实现跨越式增长， 2018-2024 年间公司黄鸡市场份额从 1.3%跃升至 2.6%，完成市占率翻倍突破。在产品方面， 顺应消费需求迭代引发的品类格局重构，重点发展中速鸡和慢速鸡产品。另外，面对当下黄 鸡屠宰后品质可视化标识体系缺失的困局，不断优化遗传改良技术，针对黄鸡冰鲜上市后体 重差异大、肤色不一致等影响消费者购买的痛点做出相应的育种改善，使其冰鲜上市的黄鸡 在体型、肤色等方面更加符合消费者购买的"审美观"，同时也有助于后续销售量的持续增长。 3）屠宰业务：纵向深化产业链，打造高端食品生态圈建设者。行业维度看，布局屠宰加工 是大势所趋，目前牧原、温氏、唐人神等各家生猪养殖企业纷纷加码屠宰业务，通过屠宰业 务打通养殖端到食品端的链路。公司自身维度看，公司拓展屠宰加工业务一方面是发挥上下 游一体化优势，在西南地区实现养殖与屠宰相匹配；另一方面，公 ...

智通财经APP讯，近期德康农牧（02419）凭借技术驱动、模式创新的科技平台型战略及符合国家战略的产业布局，获得华源证券、华西证券、国信证券等 多家机构研报集中唱好，目标价区间看高至96-170港元。作为生猪养殖行业的新锐力量，德康农牧在盈利、技术等方面均已领跑行业，在乡村振兴与行业集 中度提升的双重背景下，展现出强劲的增长潜力。 华源证券给予德康农牧"买入"评级，该机构总结称，德康响应国家战略、盈利优势显著、技术领先、食品安全规格高、发展速度快、轻资产高回报、千万头 出栏量企业中累计融资较少、2024ROE48%、逆周期布局能力、目前独创的"平台+生态"战略转型速度等方面均已领跑行业。且公司分红回购潜力较大，自 由现金流与利润比值有望维持较高水平。 该机构指出，德康的平台模式是："聚焦投入、技术驱动"的两端（育种+食品）+"轻资产、赋能型、平台模式"的中间养殖环节。该"平台+生态"战略引领三 大变革：行业变革（政策深刻转变，资本衰退中寻找"解决方案"型企业）、模式变革（"平台+生态"模式或将成为行业转型依附对象）、公司变革（德康已 由生产型企业转型为服务型企业）。德康通过服务的方式，有望创造出更大的总"蛋糕 ...

重视行业格局变化，逐浪涨价周期 - 2025 年农业中期策 略 20250627 摘要 国内牛存栏量自 2023 年中期持续下降，预计今年降幅超 10%；全球牛 存栏自 2022 年起下降，预计今年继续减少。中国政策减少牛肉进口， 多重因素共同推动国内肉牛价格上涨，或将维持两年以上的上行周期。 原奶价格预计 2026 年企稳向上，与肉牛价格存在联动性。2024 年初 奶牛存栏量持续下降，同比去化超 5%，九成牧场亏损。预计 2025 年 下半年奶价或供需平衡并有上行空间，进口量预计下降，利好国内供需 平衡。 生猪养殖板块受供给侧改革推动，中长期盈利提升逻辑明确。政策指引 生猪库存、体重、二次育肥及能繁母猪存栏量。若生猪存量有效控制在 3,950 万头或更低水平，行业扣减利润可期，领先企业养殖利润接近 400 元每头。 生猪养殖行业供给端和盈利端情况：预计 2025 年生猪供给量比 2024 年有所增加，但生产效率提升和疫病影响使得实际供给量仍存在不确定 性。今年全年的均价将在每公斤 4.5 元上下浮动，而利润可能压缩至头 均几十到头均 100 元左右。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）下半年农业板块的涨价品种有哪 ...

2025/6/25 1 4 • 农业投资建议关注以下几条主线：1.追寻涨价品种驱动板块盈利好转，例如肉牛、原粮等产品价格的上涨；2. 政策供给端改革驱动养殖板块周期进程加速，以及产能平稳后行业平均利润的提升；3.养殖后周期需求：下 游养殖端绝对存量的好转驱动销量回升。4.外部环境扰动下的避险需求。 • 牧业：肉牛价格拐点向上，奶牛周期底部企稳。2023年中肉牛养殖开始陷入亏损阶段，行业整体去化幅度预 计超过10%，行业产能的去化逐步传导至终端供给，春节后肉牛犊牛与母牛价格已经开始上涨，看好肉牛大周 期。奶价自2021年中开始见顶回落，行业自2024年开始去产能，长期亏损下2025H2产能去化有望加速，在产 能持续下降的背景下预计2026年奶价开始上行。 • 生猪养殖：重视供给侧政策，布局优质龙头企业。2025年生猪养殖行业处于下行微利阶段且供给前低后高， 预计下半年行业有望出现亏损去产能，而供给侧改革驱动行业主动去产能，中期看行业产能有望维持在较低 位置从而提升龙头企业中枢盈利水平。 • 肉禽养殖：供给存在阶段扰动，静待需求好转。黄羽鸡：年初以来黄鸡价格表现疲软，目前整体产能处于低 位且需求端出现筑底回升，随 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《供给收缩已至支撑猪价上行，618 宠 物食品龙头表现亮眼—行业周报》 -2025.6.22 《6 月 USDA 农产品报告上调全球玉 米、水稻、小麦产量，维持全球大豆产 量预期—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 《CPI 连续 4 月同比下行，政策多维发 力提振 2025H2 猪价—行业周报》 -2025.6.15 消费逐步进入淡季，短期鸡价或有压力 ——行业点评报告 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | 消费逐步进入淡季，短期鸡价或有压力 白 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Strong Buy" for key companies such as Shengnong Development, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Lihua Co., Ltd. [3] Core Insights - The report indicates a decline in broiler chicken prices, leading to potential capacity reduction in yellow feathered chicken production. The demand side remains weak, resulting in losses for the broiler farming sector. [1][9] - The white feathered chicken sector shows signs of recovery with increased chick sales driven by seasonal restocking, although overall prices remain low. [9][10] - The yellow feathered chicken sector is experiencing losses, which may accelerate the exit of underperforming capacity. [19][24] Summary by Sections White Feathered Chicken - In May, the average price of broiler chicken was 7.41 yuan/kg, down 4.1% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average price of chicken products was 8,874 yuan/ton, down 7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. The farming sector faced a slight loss of 0.07 yuan per bird. [9][10] - Chick sales increased due to seasonal restocking, with major companies like Yisheng selling 56.61 million chicks, up 11% year-on-year. [10] - The report anticipates a favorable outlook for the white chicken breeding sector, with expected strong demand for quality parent stock in 2025. [11][33] Yellow Feathered Chicken - The average price for fast-growing yellow chickens was 4.33 yuan/jin, down 19% year-on-year, while the price for Xueshan grass chickens was 6.52 yuan/jin, down 14.6% year-on-year. [23] - Major companies reported increased sales volumes, with Wens selling 108 million chickens, up 14.6% year-on-year. However, the overall supply remains relatively abundant, leading to price declines. [19][24] - The report suggests that the current low prices and costs in the yellow chicken sector may set the stage for future price increases as supply contracts. [24][33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on integrated leading companies like Shengnong Development for white feathered chickens and Lihua Co., Ltd. for yellow feathered chickens, as they are expected to benefit from cost improvements and market recovery. [31][33]

| 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-11 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3402.31 | 10246.02 | 3894.62 | 11617.56 | 2903.91 | 980.93 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.51 | 0.82 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.87 | -0.20 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 5018.07 | 7536.51 | 2572.17 | 2708.83 | 3604.85 | 213.28 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月12日 (4) [ (4) 80 $\mu$H$\beta$ ] 行业与公司 电子行业投资策略:半导体 6 月投资策略：WSTS 上修半导体销售额预测 值，ADI 表示订单在加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Co., Ltd. reported a decline in average sales prices for both yellow feathered chickens and pork in May 2023, while sales volumes increased, indicating a "volume up, price down" scenario [1][2]. Sales Performance - In May, Lihua sold 47.71 million meat chickens, generating sales revenue of 1.118 billion yuan, with an average sales price of 10.67 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20.96% in price but a volume increase of 15.03% [1]. - For pork, Lihua sold 127,700 pigs in May, with sales revenue of 241 million yuan and an average price of 14.87 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year price decline of 9.22% but a volume increase of 36.29% [2]. Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the yellow feathered chicken market is experiencing low price fluctuations due to seasonal demand and increased supply capacity, leading to short-term price pressure [1][2]. - The pork market is currently in a phase of ample supply and declining prices, with the overall trend showing an "M-shaped" price movement throughout May [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that yellow feathered chicken prices will stabilize with potential minor fluctuations, but significant price increases seen in previous years are unlikely to recur [2]. - The pork market is expected to maintain profitability for producers, although some small-scale farms are accelerating the culling of sows due to market conditions [3]. Cost Management - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, including enhancing breeding rates and lowering feed conversion ratios to mitigate price volatility risks [3].

[Table_IndNa农me林Rpt牧Typ渔dee] 行业周报 生猪价格周环比降 2%，全球主要农产品 25/26 库消比下降 [行Ta业bl评e_级In：dR增an持k] 报告日期： 2025-5-17 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au王th莺or] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 1.《华安农业周报：猪企 4 月出栏量 同比大增，中宠、乖宝它博会推新品》 2025-5-10 续窄幅震荡，Q1 白羽祖代更新量同比 大降 60%》2025-5-3 主要观点： 行业[T指abl数e_与Cha沪rt]深 300 走势比较 2.《华安农业周报：五一假期猪价继 生猪价格周环比下跌 2%，4月 20家上市猪企出栏量同比增长 37.9% ①生猪价格周环比下跌 2%。本周六，全国生猪价格 14.49 元/公斤， 周环比下跌 2%。涌益咨询（5.9-5.15）：全国 90 公斤内生猪出栏占 比 3.44%，维持低位；50 公斤二元母猪价格 1631 元/头，周环比持 平，同比上升 3.6%；规模场 15 公斤仔猪出栏价 630 元/头，周 ...