证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 24 年 月 日 农林牧渔 供需双振，看好黄鸡价格走强 本周热点：黄鸡价格持续冲高。据新牧网，8 月第三周，快速型、中速型、慢速型 黄羽肉鸡均价分别为 10.84 元/kg、12.68 元/kg、15.24 元/kg，同比分别+5.9%、 5.0%、5.0%，黄鸡已连续 5 周持续上涨，按立华股份成本 11 元/kg，假设单只黄 羽肉鸡的体重 2.2kg，则单羽盈利已经修复至 3.7 元。我们认为，前期低价或刺激 行业部分去产，同时叠加季节性需求驱动强化涨价趋势，根据新禽况预测，1）供 应端看，外围中、快速类供应量已明显减少，市场出现缺货情况，而高档类正品销 售畅通，非标产品仍在处理中，但涨价情绪极高；2）需求端看，升学宴拉动消费， 市场需求向好，同时对于中秋国庆备货，行业续养也逐步启动，整体销量提振。我 们认为，即使考虑行业补栏周期，本轮景气周期或持续一个季度左右，板块或同步 基本面迎来回暖，建议关注黄鸡龙头标的温氏股份、立华股份。 生猪养殖：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价 13.71 元/kg，较上周下跌 0.2%。当前估 值仍位于相对低位， ...

2025 年8 月18 日，圣农发展发布2025 年半年报：2025 年H1 公司实现营收88.56 亿元（ 同比+0.22% ） ，归母净利润9.10 亿元（ 同比+791.93%），扣非归母净利润3.76 亿元（同比+305.44%）。其中Q2实现 营收47.42 亿元（同比+2.59%），归母净利润7.63 亿元（同比+365.12%）。 投资要点: 成本下降原因主要系公司自有种源"901+"性能提升以及内部使用占比逐步提升，同时公司持续推行精细 化管理，各环节生产效率不断提升。 完成对太阳谷控股合并，供应链进一步完善。公司完成对太阳谷的控股合并，通过前期的产业赋能与精 益化管理导入，太阳谷自身经营效率获显著提升，已为公司带来可观收益。本次合并后，公司将充分发 挥种源自主可控与全产业链布局的协同优势，加速对太阳谷的深度整合与技术、管理赋能，进一步挖掘 其盈利潜力，为公司未来业绩持续增长注入新动能。 盈利预测和投资评级公司食品业务BC 端齐头并进，我们预计2025-2027 年公司营业收入为 200.28/231.06/257.06 亿元，归母净利润为13.97/15.83/19.34 亿元，对应PE 分 ...

Core Insights - Recently, Jiangxi Province approved 67 new products, including Majia pomelo, Taihe black chicken, Jingdezhen porcelain, and Lushan cloud tea, allowing 640 enterprises to use geographical indication special marks [1] - Jiangxi Province has integrated geographical indication protection with regional brand development as a key strategy for promoting local特色经济发展 [1] - The Jiangxi Provincial Market Supervision Administration (Intellectual Property Office) has organized professional service teams to assist enterprises in applying for and using geographical indication special marks, enhancing the quality and efficiency of the application process [1] - To date, a total of 1,136 enterprises in Jiangxi Province have been approved to use geographical indication special marks [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company's cost advantages have been further solidified, with the consolidation of Sun Valley significantly enhancing performance [2] - The overall revenue for H1 2025 reached 8.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged to 910 million yuan, reflecting a 792% increase, primarily due to substantial non-recurring gains from the Sun Valley consolidation [1][2] - The company has completed the controlling merger with Sun Valley, which is expected to fully contribute to performance in the second half of the year and continue to leverage industrial synergies in the future [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin increased by 3 percentage points to 11.97%, while the net profit margin rose by 9 percentage points to 10.39% [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 4.742 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with a net profit of 763 million yuan, marking a 365% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s chicken and meat product revenues for H1 2025 were 4.674 billion yuan and 3.693 billion yuan, respectively, with chicken revenue declining by 8% due to market conditions, while processed meat products saw a 19% increase [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to continue enhancing its core competitive advantages through new breed research and channel optimization, with adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 being 1.12, 1.36, and 1.59 yuan, respectively [4] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 7.2%, 9.3%, and 7.5%, with net profit growth rates of 91.9%, 21.3%, and 17.6% for the same period [10][11]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 8.86 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged to 910 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 791.93%, largely due to non-recurring gains from the acquisition of Taiyanggu [1] - Excluding this factor, the net profit after deducting non-recurring items reached 376 million yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 300% [1] - Operating cash flow was strong at 1.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 38% [1] Group 2: Sales Channels and Growth - C-end revenue grew over 30%, increasing its share to 15% of total revenue, with offline channels like KA systems performing particularly well [1] - B-end catering continued to grow at around 30% [5] - Export business, driven by the Russian market, saw growth exceeding 20%, with cooked products successfully entering the Hong Kong market [1] - The revenue structure is continuously optimizing, with deep processing product revenue growing significantly and surpassing 40% of total revenue, contributing to an overall gross margin increase of over 2 percentage points [1] Group 3: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company maintained good profitability due to significant cost control advantages, with meat production costs decreasing by over 10% [1] - Improvements in chicken performance and management practices contributed to cost reductions [6] - Strategic adjustments in sales channels have led to a decrease in the share of lower-value distribution channels, focusing more on high-value C-end and catering channels [5] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Position - The integration of Taiyanggu is expected to contribute over 60 million breeding capacity and more than 80,000 tons of cooked food capacity annually [3] - The company holds approximately 20% market share in the domestic breeding chicken market, with plans for continued growth in exports [4] - The rapid growth in C-end sales is attributed to effective collaboration between online and offline strategies, leveraging market trends and strong product development capabilities [7] - Cash flow improvements are a result of ongoing financing structure enhancements and a focus on technological upgrades and channel optimization [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [5][63]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in the pig farming sector, the potential for valuation reassessment, and the strong growth in the pet economy, particularly for domestic brands [5][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The average price of pigs as of August 14, 2025, is 13.74 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.28 CNY/kg. The price of 15 kg piglets is 484 CNY/head, down 33 CNY/head from the previous week [12]. - The report suggests that the swine industry is moving towards a self-regulatory and stabilizing phase, with top companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Juxing Agriculture being recommended for investment [12][5]. 2. Poultry Industry - The report notes a decline in poultry prices, with the average price of broiler chickens at 3.60 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The report recommends companies like San Nong Development and Lihua Shares [21][22]. 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery, with companies like Huayuan Biological, Reap Biological, and Placo showing improved performance. The approval of mRNA vaccines for veterinary use is seen as a significant technological advancement [33][5]. 4. Planting Industry - The report indicates an increase in soybean meal prices, with the average price reaching 3092 CNY/ton, up 2.8% week-on-week. Companies involved in transgenic seed commercialization are recommended for investment [38][42]. 5. Feed Industry - Feed prices are fluctuating, with the price for fattening pig feed at 3.34 CNY/kg, down 0.3% month-on-month. The report suggests that the feed industry is likely to see increased concentration, recommending companies like Haida Group [44][46]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet economy is booming, with the market size for pet consumption in urban areas projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 7.5%. Companies like Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares are recommended for investment [53][54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][86] Core Views - In July, pig farming companies experienced a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a reduction in average weight continuing. The total number of pigs slaughtered by 18 companies was 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% but a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average price of pigs has shown a slight rebound, with the national average price on August 15 being 13.73 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week. The average weight of pigs slaughtered also saw a slight increase [21][29] - The poultry sector is experiencing mixed trends, with broiler prices stabilizing after a previous increase, while chick prices remain high. The average price of white feather broilers was 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, up 0.06 yuan/kg week-on-week [48][51] - The demand for eggs is expected to grow seasonally, with the average price of eggs at 6.40 yuan/kg from August 11 to August 14, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - July saw a decrease in the number of pigs slaughtered, with a total of 15.96 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 5.39% and a year-on-year increase of 24.48% [13][18] - The average weight of pigs slaughtered in July was 128.59 kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.01 kg [18][21] - The average selling price of pigs increased to 14.65 yuan/kg in July, a month-on-month increase of 1.90% [18][21] - The industry is under pressure from supply increases, with expectations of a 5.26% to 7.01% increase in slaughter numbers in August [43] Poultry Sector - Broiler prices have stabilized after previous increases, with the average price at 7.20 yuan/kg on August 15, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.06 yuan/kg [48][51] - Chick prices remain high, with the average price at 3.58 yuan per chick, up 0.45 yuan week-on-week [48] - The demand for eggs is expected to rise seasonally, with the average price at 6.40 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 0.17 yuan/kg [51] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have increased, with the DCE soybean meal contract closing at 3137 yuan/ton on August 15, a week-on-week increase of 43 yuan/ton [64] - The current market conditions are influenced by USDA reports and trade policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [64]

Macro Economic Group - In July, the industrial added value of above-scale enterprises in China grew by 5.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June, while the market expectation was 5.8% [5] - The fixed asset investment growth rate from January to July was 1.6%, significantly below the WIND expectation of 2.7%, and down 2.1 percentage points from the first half of the year [5] - The retail sales of consumer goods in July saw a nominal year-on-year growth of 3.7%, lower than the WIND expectation of 4.9%, and a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June [6] Industry Comprehensive Group - Guangdong Jiantao Group announced a price increase for copper-clad laminates due to high raw material costs, with prices rising by 10 yuan per sheet, leading to a price increase trend across the PCB and copper-clad laminate industry [9] - Multiple LED packaging companies have announced price hikes of 5%-10% due to rising costs of key materials like gold, silver, and copper, indicating a potential recovery in the LED packaging industry after a period of oversupply [9] Advanced Manufacturing Group - The import of 20 tons of recycled black powder for lithium-ion batteries marks a significant step towards a circular economy in China's battery industry, alleviating some supply pressures in the short term [12] - In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%, indicating a strong market performance [12] Consumer Group - Shengnong Development reported a revenue of 8.856 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 910 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 791.93% [16] - The company’s growth was driven by a decrease in comprehensive meat costs and investment income from acquisitions, alongside a strong performance in retail channels [16]

Core Viewpoint - The poultry industry, particularly the white feather chicken sector, is experiencing a downturn, yet the leading company, Shennong Development, has managed to achieve significant growth in its performance through cost control and acquisitions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shennong Development reported revenue of approximately 8.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached about 910 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 791.93% [1]. - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items was approximately 376 million yuan, an increase of 305.44% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company's chicken product revenue was around 4.674 billion yuan, down 8.17% year-on-year, but the cost of goods sold decreased by 10.43%, leading to a gross margin increase of 2.37 percentage points to 6.34% [2]. Cost Control and Efficiency - Shennong Development achieved a reduction of over 10% in comprehensive meat production costs compared to the same period last year, attributed to improved performance of its proprietary breed "901+" and enhanced internal usage [1]. - The company has been implementing refined management practices, resulting in increased production efficiency across various stages [1]. Market Dynamics - The white feather chicken industry faced significant challenges in the first half of 2025, with a reported 20% decrease in the speed of slaughterhouse shipments, leading to excess inventory [2]. - To stimulate sales, slaughterhouses have been lowering prices to clear stock, with the average price of white feather chicken products continuing to decline [3]. Sales Growth and Future Outlook - In July 2025, Shennong Development achieved sales revenue of 2.129 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.02% and a month-on-month increase of 26.21% [4]. - The C-end retail channel saw revenue growth of over 30%, while export channel revenue reached a historical high with a year-on-year growth exceeding 100% [4]. - The company has fully replaced its previous breed with the new self-developed "Shenze 901Plus," further solidifying its cost advantages [4].

北京商报讯（记者 郭秀娟 实习记者 王悦彤） 8月17日，圣农发展发布2025年半年报，报告期内，公司 实现营业收入88.56亿元，同比增长0.22%；归母净利润9.1亿元，同比增长791.93%。且在报告期内公司 产量、销量均实现增长，鸡肉生食销售量66.09万吨，深加工肉制品产品销售量17.45万吨，分别同比增 长2.50%、13.21%。 ...