Market Overview - The news of a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered volatility in global financial markets [2] - On June 23, during the Asian trading session, NYMEX WTI crude oil opened with a surge, rising over 4% before narrowing its gains [2] Stock Market Performance - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened with significant declines, with the South Korean KOSPI index dropping over 1.6% at one point, later reducing to a 1.14% decline [5] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell nearly 1% during the session, ultimately down 0.64% [6] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks in both Japan and South Korea experienced widespread declines, with Samsung Electronics dropping over 2.8% [8] - Other notable declines included Samsung SDI and Hanmi Semiconductor, both down over 4%, while SK Hynix fell over 3% [9][10] - Reports indicate that the U.S. Department of Commerce plans to revoke the blanket exemption allowing major semiconductor manufacturers, including TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix, to ship U.S. chip manufacturing equipment to their factories in China without individual licenses [11] Gold Market - Gold prices initially surged to $3,400 per ounce before experiencing a rapid decline [13] - Deutsche Bank suggests that the current geopolitical risk premium for gold may be a false signal, anticipating a potential rebound in risk premium in the coming weeks [13] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, followed by a gradual decline to a range of $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, marking the end of the current record rally [13]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing intensified long-short battles after a week of fluctuations, with a clear divergence in expectations between Wall Street analysts and retail investors regarding gold price trends for the upcoming week [1] - A recent survey of 16 Wall Street analysts shows that only 6 (approximately 38%) expect gold prices to rise in the next week, while 5 (31%) predict a potential decline, and another 5 (31%) anticipate a sideways market [1] - In contrast, an online survey of 258 retail investors reveals that 138 (54%) expect gold prices to rise next week, indicating a more optimistic sentiment among retail investors [1] Group 2 - Citigroup and other institutions predict that gold prices may fluctuate between $3100 and $3500 in the short term, but long-term pressures may arise due to changes in Federal Reserve policy and economic conditions [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, suggesting that if geopolitical conflicts or policy uncertainties escalate, gold prices could challenge $3500 or even higher [1] - Deutsche Bank notes that historical data indicates that the geopolitical risk premium for gold typically peaks between the 8th and 20th trading days after a crisis, with an average increase of 5.5%, suggesting that the rapid decline in the current geopolitical risk premium may be a false signal [3]