10:30 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 1086.47 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2026-02-2 1,090 1,080 1,070 1,060 1,050 1.040 2025-12-11 2026-01-06 2026-01-27 2026-02-11 黄金ETF每日持仓变化一览 l= 图表 聞表 尽管上周美国经济数据显示通胀压力持续，黄金仍维持涨势。美国2025年第四季度GDP环比增长1.4%，经济虽有放缓但仍保持扩张。美联储青睐的核心个 人消费支出价格指数12月同比上涨3%，本应对降息预期构成打压。然而，市场对美联储政策转向的预期并未动摇。 根据Prime Market Terminal数据，掉期市场目前计入55个基点的降息幅度。 另外，值得注意的是，美联储理事沃勒近期表态略显中性，称如果2月就业报告与1月一样强劲，可能维持利率不变，但他同时强调，若1月数据被下修，他 倾向于降息25个基点。 技术面来看，金价上升趋势保持完好，有望进一步上涨。日线图显示，金价已突破5100美元和5200美元两个关键阻力位，突破显示看涨动能正在积聚。相对 ...

2026年2月，比特币价格跌破7.76万美元，较2025年10月峰值12.5万美元累计下跌38%，单周市值蒸发 5000亿美元。更令人意外的是，这场暴跌发生在全球避险情绪高涨的背景下——黄金价格屡创新高，美 债收益率持续走低，传统避险资产表现强劲。这种背离彻底动摇了比特币作为"数字黄金"的市场定位， 其避险属性正遭遇前所未有的质疑。 与2018年83%的跌幅相比，当前调整尚属合理范畴。但本次暴跌呈现三个新特征：一是与传统避险资产 彻底脱钩，黄金上涨时比特币反跌6.28%；二是受机构行为主导，ETF资金流向成为风向标；三是算法 交易占比提升，Bitfinex资金费率突破+0.15%即触发毫秒级爆仓循环。 减半周期规律仍值得关注。2024年减半后比特币最高上涨68.75%，但随后因机构集中获利回吐下跌 31%。当前价格已接近矿工盈亏平衡点，链上数据显示，哈希率从9800万TH/S骤降至5770万TH/S，表 明部分矿工开始退出。历史上每次减半后12-18个月会出现峰值，但本轮周期中牛市持续时间更长，下 跌却更迅猛。 避险资产失灵的三大诱因 美联储政策转向是首要冲击。2025年四季度起，市场对降息预期从5次下调至3 ...

[tabl中e_山pa每ge日1点] 评 [table_subject] 2026 年 2 月 10 日 证券研究报告·中山每日点评 ——2 月 10 日 A 股市场点评 [中ta山bl证e_券inv研es究t]所 [[分ttaa析bbll师ee__：rree唐ssee晋aarr荣cchh]] 登记编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com 分析师：方鹏飞 登记编号：S0290519010001 邮箱：fangpf@zszq.com 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 1.市场整体表现 表 1 主要指数涨跌幅度 主要指数窄幅震荡 | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | 指数名称 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.13 | 北证 50 | -0.61 | | 深证成指 | 0.02 | 万得全 A | 0.06 | | 沪深 300 | 0.11 | 中证 500 | -0.06 | | 科创 50 | 0.91 | 红利指数 | 0.43 | 资料来源：Wind，中山 ...

昨夜，美国联邦最高法院，以6:3的投票结果裁定： 行政部门试图援引1977年《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)，将贸易逆差或普通的经济竞争视为"国家紧急状态"，从而对全球进口商品实施地毯式关税的 行为，属于"行政越权"。 多数派意见书写得非常辛辣："如果国会想要授予总统重塑全球贸易格局的权力，它必须说得'清楚明白'。我们不能从模糊的法律文本中，推导出如此巨 大的行政扩张。" 随后白宫证实，在最高法院作出裁决后，美国政府依据先前行政令、援引IEEPA推动的相关关税将不再有效。 根据瑞银集团的测算，这部分被推翻的关税，占到特朗普2025年全年征收关税总额的75%，涵盖了从日用消费品、电子零部件到工业原材料的数千亿美元 商品。 受此影响，美股三大指数盘中全线拉升。 难道悬在美股头顶的这把大剑，真就这么没了? 01 预测2026年，关税仍将占相关企业价格上涨因素的四分之一左右，盈利空间被持续挤压。 所以在裁决公布后，高盛、摩根士丹利等机构，才第一时间就上调了进口依赖型企业的盈利预测。 其中，高盛将沃尔玛2026财年的每股收益上调至3.05美元，较此前预测上调了7.3%，理由是"关税取消后，沃尔玛的采购成本将下降2. ...

2026年开年以来，国际贵金属市场经历了一轮史诗级"过山车"行情，暴涨暴跌交替上演，引发全球金融 市场广泛关注。 1月期间，贵金属价格开启强势单边上行通道，伦敦现货黄金接连突破多道关键整数关口，于1月29日触 及5598.75美元/盎司的历史新高，月度累计涨幅超23%；现货白银同步冲高，一度站上121.44美元/盎司 的历史峰值。这轮上涨主要源于地缘风险加剧、美元走弱与去美元化进程共振，以及市场对美联储政策 转向宽松的预期升温。 针对这轮行情波动，多家机构发布观点。东方证券指出，短期价格与隐含波动率仍处高位，建议中长期 投资者暂时观望，待价格稳定后再考虑低位布局，同时强调美国长期债务问题未解决前，贵金属长期牛 市逻辑并未改变。联储证券认为，沃什提名是特朗普在行政权威与金融稳定间的折中选择，美联储降息 整体趋势并未改变，金价中长期走强基础依然坚实，短期调整源于多头获利了结与情绪释放，后续下行 空间有限。国盛证券提到，此次暴跌是多重因素叠加的结果，沃什的政策主张仍将受美国经济基本面掣 肘，海外投资者对美债的担忧仍在。 截至2月中旬，贵金属市场仍处于高位震荡阶段，机构普遍认为短期波动率仍将维持较高水平，但支撑 行情 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the US dollar are driven by strong employment data and cooling inflation, with a medium-term outlook indicating downward pressure on the dollar due to falling inflation, geopolitical risks, and a potential shift in Federal Reserve policy [1][4]. Group 1: Employment Data - The US non-farm payrolls for January showed a significant increase of 130,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations of 65,000, with notable recovery in the private sector, particularly in education and healthcare [2]. - The labor force participation rate has risen, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, indicating a robust labor market with ample job supply [2]. - Average hourly earnings and weekly hours both increased, alleviating concerns about a weakening job market [2]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, with a month-on-month rise of only 0.2%, both below expectations [3]. - Core CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest since March 2021, influenced significantly by a 1.8% drop in used car prices [3]. - Energy prices continued to decline, with gasoline prices falling by 3.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The strong employment data initially boosted the dollar, but the subsequent inflation data led to a sharp decline in the dollar index by nearly 20 points, with non-US currencies rebounding [3][4]. - Gold prices surged, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower real interest rates [3][4]. Group 4: Currency Outlook - The euro is expected to benefit from the dollar's retreat and improving fundamentals, with the European Central Bank signaling positive developments in the service sector and stable employment [4]. - The British pound faces significant political risks, particularly following a political crisis involving Prime Minister Starmer, which may hinder its recovery despite a weaker dollar [5]. - Overall, the dollar is experiencing short-term volatility due to conflicting employment and inflation signals, but medium-term factors suggest a downward trend for the dollar [5].

Group 1: Market Volatility - The gold market has experienced extreme volatility, with prices reaching a historical high of $5598.75 per ounce at the end of January 2026, followed by a significant drop of over 12% on January 30, hitting a low of $4682 per ounce [1][3] - The immediate trigger for the price drop was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which reversed previous market expectations for monetary easing, leading to a rapid increase in the US dollar index and pressure on gold prices [3] - The market had previously seen a substantial increase in gold prices, with a rise of over 70% in 2025 and an additional 15% at the start of 2026, creating a situation where profit-taking was likely when market conditions changed [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments, such as the agreement for talks between the US and Iran and productive discussions between Russia and Ukraine, have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, prompting some capital to exit the gold market [3] - Despite these talks, analysts note that fundamental disagreements remain, suggesting that geopolitical tensions are likely to persist [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Following the dramatic price drop, gold prices rebounded by 4.1% on February 3, reaching $4850 per ounce, driven by a recovery in market sentiment and the realization that the previous drop was largely a correction of market leverage and emotions [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange responded to the volatility by adjusting margin levels and price limits for gold contracts, indicating a proactive approach to manage market fluctuations [5] Group 4: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic gold prices also experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a drop of 9.67% on February 2, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times [5] - On February 6, domestic gold prices saw a collective decline across various brands, with notable drops reported by major retailers [6] Group 5: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest gold ETF globally, saw a record outflow of 82 tons on January 30, reflecting the market's reaction to the price drop [3][8] - As of January 29, 2026, the SPDR Gold Shares had an asset management scale of approximately $1740.68 billion, with a gold holding of about 1110 tons, indicating significant investor interest prior to the volatility [8] Group 6: Central Bank Activities - Central banks continue to support gold prices, with global net purchases exceeding 1200 tons in 2025, making gold the largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing US Treasuries [9] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, surpassing 2400 tons as of January 2026, with 95% of central banks planning to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months [9] Group 7: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations have directly impacted gold prices, with officials indicating that rate cuts in the first half of the year are unlikely, pushing back the first expected cut from June to September [11] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates 2-3 times in 2026, which will continue to influence gold price trends [11] Group 8: Liquidity Issues - The recent price drop has highlighted liquidity issues in the precious metals market, with significant amounts of inventory locked away due to strategic and manufacturing demands, reducing the available supply for trading [12] - Speculative behavior in the silver market has exacerbated tensions, with retail investors shifting from gold to silver, further constraining the physical supply [12]

黄金市场正迎来一个罕见的平静时刻。 截至2月10日，国内黄金回收价连续十天稳守1125元/克，国际伦敦金也在 5000美元关口上方反复磨底。 这种僵持背后，是主力资金在春节前的谨慎观望，也是多空双方在关键数据前的暂 时平衡。 2月11日即将公布的美国1月CPI数据，可能成为打破平静的导火索。 历史数据显示，类似横盘后出现单 日波动超3%行情的概率高达76.9%，市场仿佛一张拉满的弓。 不同渠道的价差折射出截然不同的逻辑。 银行金条报价在1136-1146元/克波动，而浦发银行一度标出1229元/克的 高价。 这种分化显示部分机构已开始为潜在波动做准备。 实物市场则呈现冰火两重天。 水贝市场金条批发价坚挺在1261元/克，但回收商报价已骤降至1070元/克。 有店员 透露，除非是婚庆刚需客户，普通消费者普遍转向观望，而以旧换新业务量却增长20%。 品牌金店的玻璃柜台里，足金饰品标签定格在1556-1560元/克，而仅一街之隔的回收点，报价牌上的数字却停留 在1125元。 这430元的价差，映射出当前黄金市场的割裂现实：零售端靠婚庆、礼品等刚需支撑，投资端则紧盯 美元指数和美联储动向。 价格梯度呈现清晰的层次。 ...

2026年2月10日，全球金融市场迎来本周乃至本月最关键的宏观数据——美国2月非农就业数据，该数据将于今日晚间正式出炉，成为决定美联储短期利率政 策走向的"胜负手"，牵动全球股、债、汇、商品市场的神经。当前，市场普遍给出谨慎预期，预计美国2月非农就业增长可能陷入停滞，新增就业人数或低 于8万人，失业率将维持在4.4%左右的高位区间，延续1月以来的疲软态势。作为美联储"充分就业+物价稳定"双重政策目标的核心参考指标，此次非农数据 的表现将直接打破当前市场对美联储政策的僵持预期：若数据不及预期、呈现疲弱态势，将强化市场对美联储转向鸽派立场的判断，推动年内降息预期升 温，进而支撑全球风险偏好回升;若数据意外强劲，则可能印证劳动力市场韧性，美联储或维持鹰派姿态，延迟降息进程，全球市场将再度面临流动性收紧 预期的压制。本文将结合前期就业数据背景、市场预期逻辑、政策传导路径，通过情景推演、机构观点解读，深度预测非农数据对美联储政策的影响及全球 市场趋势，为投资者提供专业参考。 当前，全球金融市场正处于"美联储政策不确定性"主导的震荡格局中，而非农就业数据作为美联储政策调整的核心风向标，其重要性远超以往。回顾2026年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop on February 6, 2026, with international gold prices plummeting from $5023 per ounce to $4774, marking a nearly 4.75% decline, the largest single-day drop in 40 years [1][3]. Market Phenomenon - Global gold prices fell sharply, with London gold dropping from $5020 to $4783, a daily fluctuation exceeding 4.7%, closing at $4773.08 per ounce, down $237.85 from the previous day [3]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold T+D prices fell to 1081.66 yuan per gram, with significant volatility observed [3]. - The price of physical gold also decreased, with major brands adjusting their prices to 1555-1568 yuan per gram, while the recovery price dropped to 1070 yuan per gram, creating a price gap of nearly 200 yuan [3]. - The market showed a disparity in pricing, with wholesale gold bar prices in Shenzhen remaining at 1261 yuan per gram, while recovery prices fell significantly [3]. Causes of the Plunge - The primary trigger for the drop was a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy signals, with unexpectedly strong initial jobless claims data leading to a sharp decline in expectations for interest rate cuts [6]. - Technical breakdowns exacerbated the situation, as the London gold price fell below the critical psychological level of $4900, triggering automated sell orders and a vicious cycle of selling [6]. - Easing geopolitical risks, such as developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. - The substantial profit accumulated during the previous price rise also contributed to the sell-off as investors sought to cash in [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts are divided on the implications of the price drop. Some, like Citic Securities, believe the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, driven by liquidity expectations [8]. - Others caution about short-term risks, with UBS raising its gold price target to $6200 per ounce while warning of potential downward risks from a hawkish Fed [8]. - Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank maintain a target of $6000 per ounce, viewing the current adjustment as a buying opportunity [8]. Investor Response - Investor strategies have diverged, with some opting to cash out, leading to long queues at gold recovery stores [10]. - Others are taking advantage of lower prices to buy gold, indicating a belief in its long-term value [10]. - Analysts recommend cautious approaches, such as dollar-cost averaging, to mitigate risks associated with high leverage [10]. Market Ecology - The current gold market exhibits a unique dual trend of high recovery and purchasing activity [12]. - Recovery channels have diversified, with banks, brand stores, pawn shops, and online platforms all participating, though with varying price structures [12]. - Despite price fluctuations, demand for gold remains strong ahead of the Chinese New Year, reflecting its perceived value as both an investment and a gift [12]. - This duality in market behavior highlights differing perspectives on gold's value, with some investors focused on short-term gains while others prioritize long-term stability [12].