1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Oscillation [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of gold prices is oscillating and has not yet broken out of the range, waiting for more momentum [5] - Multiple factors are intertwined. Tariff policies boost gold's safe - haven property, but the intensity and uncertainty are lower than in April, resulting in limited gold price increases. The relatively good performance of US economic data does not bring additional positive factors to gold. The implementation of the US tax - cut bill will boost short - term economic and risk appetite but increase the long - term debt burden of the US government, and the logic of gold hedging against the US dollar credit remains [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - London gold rose 1.9% to $3,337 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the inflation expectation was 2.33%, the real interest rate rose to 2%, the US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, the offshore RMB appreciated slightly, and the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated narrowly [2] 3.2 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes | Index Name | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change Amount | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Basis (Spot - Futures) | Yuan/g | - 5.49 | - 3.32 | - 2.17 | 65.4% | | Domestic - Foreign Futures Price Difference (Domestic - Foreign) | Yuan/g | - 12.08 | 8.99 | - 21.07 | - 234.4% | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kg | 21,456 | 18,237 | 3,219.00 | 17.7% | | COMEX Gold Inventory | Ounce | 36,785,583 | 37,048,335 | - 262,752 | - 0.71% | | SPDR ETF Holdings | Tons | 947.66 | 954.82 | - 7.16 | - 0.75% | | CFTC Gold Speculative Net Long Positions | Lots | 130,484 | 136,626 | - 6,142 | - 4.5% | | US Treasury Yield | % | 4.35 | 4.29 | 0.06 | 1.4% | | US Dollar Index | | 96.99 | 97.26 | - 0.27 | - 0.28% | | SOFR | % | 4.40 | 4.36 | 0.04 | 0.9% | | US 10 - Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | % | 2.3386 | 2.3043 | 0.0343 | 1.49% | | S&P 500 Index | | 6,279 | 6,173 | 106 | 1.7% | | VIX Volatility Index | % | 17.5 | 16.3 | 1.2 | 7.1% | | Gold Cross - Market Arbitrage Trading | | 7.1 | 7.3 | - 0.2 | - 2.7% | | US 10 - Year Real Interest Rate | % | 2.01 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 1.7% | [11] 3.3 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.3.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.4%. Oil prices rose 2.5%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.33% [17] - The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, the US Treasury yield was 4.34%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.72%, and the VIX index slightly rose to 17.6 [19] - The real interest rate slightly rose to 2.007%, and the gold price rose 1.9%. The spot commodity index closed down, and the US dollar index slightly fell [21] 3.3.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.72%. Developing - country stock markets mostly rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.4% [22] - US and German bonds rebounded, and the US - Germany yield spread was 1.74%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.55%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.44% [27] - The euro rose 0.52%, the pound fell 0.48%, the yen rose 0.12%, and the Swiss franc rose 0.63%. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.2, and most non - US currencies appreciated [29][31] 3.4 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The release of gold speculative net long positions was postponed to July 8. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings fell to 947 tons [34] - The RMB slightly appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver rebounded, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 90.2 [36] 3.5 Weekly Economic Calendar | Date | Important Data & Events | | --- | --- | | Monday | China's foreign exchange reserves in June; Eurozone retail sales in June | | Tuesday | Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting decision; US NFIB small - business confidence index in June; New York Fed one - year inflation expectation | | Wednesday | China's CPI in June; End of the US reciprocal tariff suspension period | | Thursday | Minutes of the Fed's June interest rate meeting | | Friday | US 30 - year Treasury auction | [37]