过去几天，美联储官员密集放鸽，彻底点燃市场降息预期。素有"鹰王"之称的沃勒罕见转鸽，他在福克斯财经节目中明确表态：当前就业市场"持续疲软"， 完全有理由在12月9-10日会议上再降25个基点！沃勒甚至强调，9月非农新增11.9万虽超预期，但大概率会被下修，失业率已从4.3%升至4.4%，完全没有反 弹迹象。另一位重量级人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五也表示，美国利率"短期内可能下降"，且不会危及2%通胀目标。旧金山联储主席戴利周一更是 直接"倒戈"，从此前对连续第三次降息犹豫不决，转为明确支持12月行动。芝商所FedWatch工具最新数据显示，12月降息25bp的概率已高达81%，较一周前 大幅跃升。 由于此前美国政府停摆，大量重磅数据被推迟发布，本周将迎来密集补数据窗口。周二将公布推迟已久的零售销售、PPI，周三有初请失业金、耐用品订 单，市场普遍预计这些数据将偏弱或至少不会大幅超预期。一旦数据证实经济降温、通胀压力可控，12月降息将彻底"锁死"，甚至为2026年1月再降息铺 路。 地缘局势方面，就在市场全力交易美联储降息的同时，地缘风险突然卷土重来。基辅周二凌晨发布紧急防空警报，俄军同时发射"沙赫德"无人 ...

摘要北京时间周一（11月24日）欧洲时段，美元指数小幅回落，交投于100.120附近，金价目前交投于 4066.81美元/盎司，涨幅0.05%，最高触及4076.69美元/盎司，最低触及4039.72美元/盎司。展望未来， 黄金市场的走势将取决于多个关键因素的演变。美联储12月的利率决策仍是市场关注的焦点，而即将公 布的经济数据，特别是推迟至12月18日发布的11月CPI报告，将为市场提供更清晰的通胀路径指引。 近期美国就业数据呈现"强劲中的疲软"：9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，远超预期的5万人，但7月和8 月数据合计下修3.3万人，且失业率意外升至4.4%，创2021年10月以来新高。这种矛盾信号导致市场对 美联储12月降息预期剧烈波动，短期内预期概率在40%-74%间大幅震荡。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯近期释放鸽派信号，表示美联储仍可在"短期内"降息而不会危及通胀目标，这一 表态使得市场对12月降息的预期概率一度从40%大幅攀升至74%。然而，达拉斯联储主席洛根则坚持鹰 派立场，呼吁利率应"在一段时间内"维持不变。这种政策信号的不一致性，直接导致了黄金市场的频繁 波动。 俄乌冲突方面出现重大进展，特朗普提 ...

截至2025年11月24日 10:10，黄金ETF基金(159937)上涨0.15%，最新价报8.83元。拉长时间看，截至2025年11月21日，黄金ETF基金近2周累计上涨0.48%。 流动性方面，黄金ETF基金盘中换手0.64%，成交2.48亿元。拉长时间看，截至11月21日，黄金ETF基金近1周日均成交15.75亿元。 平安证券指出，黄金市场受降息预期摇摆影响呈现震荡走势，短期金价或因预期不明朗维持较强震荡。长期来看，美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线 逻辑持续，叠加央行购金及黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或继续上移。海外宏观不确定性延续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段；长期特朗普上任 后，美元信用走弱趋势愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 从资金净流入方面来看，黄金ETF基金近5天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.65亿元净流入，合计"吸金"10.61亿元，日均净流入达2.12亿元。 11月17日-11月21日，上周周初美联储官员连续释放鹰派言论，非农就业数据高于预期，降息预期降温，金价震荡走低，随着周五纽约联储威廉姆斯做出鸽 派发言，金价止跌回升。截至收盘，COMEX黄金 ...

4小时级别：金价在年均线附近多次获得支撑并形成下影线，这一形态表明下方买盘力量在关键位置开 始发力，一定程度上遏制了价格的持续下行。同时MACD指标此前死叉后绿柱动能逐步收窄，虽仍在零 轴下方运行，但空头力度明显减弱，意味着回调动能正在放缓，短期有企稳修复的可能。 小时线级别：金价此前承压于白色通道上轨4087美元后出现回落，上周五欧盘时段跌至4023美元，两次 下探红色通道下轨并形成"插针"形态，随后在4030-4070美元区间震荡整理。截至今日8时，伦敦金现报 4063美元附近波动，日内波动幅度极小，小时线走势相对平缓，多空双方暂时处于僵持状态，尚未形成 明确的方向突破。 另外，在全球风险资产抛售潮里，黄金的避险属性并未充分展现。在11月21日美股暴跌引发的全球资产 调整过程中，比特币日内跌幅超9%，原油价格也面临压力，现货黄金价格同样下跌0.4%。这反映出在 美元强势的大环境下，部分避险资金更倾向于流入美元资产，导致黄金的避险需求被分散，其短期价格 承受着较大压力。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 今日周一（11月24日）亚盘时段，伦敦金现报4065.63美元/盎司，日内下跌9.33美元，跌幅0.23%，延续 ...

我点开行情软件一看，现货黄金确实连续两天上涨，从3998美元一路冲到4095美元，反弹力度比预想的还猛。 但就在大家为涨幅欢呼时，11月20日这一 天，行情的拐点其实已经悄然出现。 早上我和上海、北京、深圳三家金店的经理通了电话。 周大福的首饰金报价1305元/克，比上周五涨了18块；老凤祥挂牌1300元/克，突破了今年最高纪录； 菜百足金999价格1268元/克，创下近半年新高。 现货黄金稳稳站在4095美元附近，周三单日上涨0.69%，加上周二的0.54%，两天累计涨幅1.23%。 有人可能觉得黄金只是有钱人的游戏，但2016年金价上涨时，我邻居大爷用退休金买了100克黄金。 后来他儿子买房首付差钱，大爷把黄金变现，刚好凑够 了那笔钱。 黄金从来不是奢侈品，而是普通人关键时刻的"救命钱"。 今天早上刚到公司，手机就被黄金投资群的消息刷爆了。 有人晒出持仓盈利截图，兴奋地说自己在4000美元抄底的黄金，现在已经涨到4095美元，一克净 赚95美元。 底下立刻有人追问："现在追还来得及吗？ "生怕错过这波行情。 这波金价上涨，表面看是运气，实则是多重利好堆出来的结果。 最直接的原因就是避险情绪爆棚。 华尔街股 ...

【导读】海外投资者持有美国国债总额为9.249万亿美元，低于8月的9.2662万亿美元 中国基金报记者 储是 美国财政部公布 了 8月和9月 美债持仓情况。 数据显示，9月，外国投资者 持有 美国国债 规模 有所下降，其中，日本的美债持仓量在8月和9月大幅增加，中国和英国在9月减持美 债。 日本增持 英国和中国减持 因美国政府停摆， 美国财政部 于美东时间周二才发布 8月和9月的国际资本流动报告 （ TIC ） 。 数据显示，9月， 海外投资者持有的美国国债总额为9.249万亿美元，低于 8月 的9.2662万 亿美元。 具体来看， 美债第一大持有国 日本 持有 规模达到1.189万亿美元，9月 份持仓量增加 89亿 美元 、 8月增加290亿美元。 9月， 英国 的 美国国债 持仓量罕见减少 393亿 美元， 至8650亿美元，持仓规模 保持第二 位。英国近两年持续增持美债，于今年3月超越中国成为第二大持有国。 中国持有的美国国债规模从8月的7010亿美元降至9月的7005亿美元 。 有券商分析师向中国基金报记者表示，央行对美债操作的不同方向，反映出不同的外部资产 配置方向，短期来看，对全球资本流动影响不大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations surrounding the U.S. government funding bill and economic data indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Key drivers for gold's rise include the anticipated end of the U.S. government shutdown, with the House of Representatives moving towards a final vote on a funding bill, and President Trump indicating he will sign it. This has led to market expectations that upcoming economic data will confirm economic weakness in the U.S., further increasing gold's attractiveness [2]. - Economic indicators show weakness, with the ADP weekly employment report indicating a reduction of an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the private sector, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 65% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has fallen to 4.059%, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, coupled with economic uncertainty, leading to increased investment in precious metals [3]. - Future focus areas include the final voting results and signing progress of the U.S. government funding bill, the release of delayed economic data, particularly employment and inflation reports, and signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the gold market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving four consecutive days of gains, indicating increasing bullish sentiment [6]. - Technical indicators reveal a strong short-term trend, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages forming a golden cross, suggesting the stability and continuation of the upward trend. The 5-day moving average is currently acting as a strong support level [6]. - On the four-hour chart, the current market is in the C-wave of a corrective structure, with expectations of a five-wave push within this C-wave. Monitoring the momentum and completion of this wave structure is crucial for future positioning [8]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4211/4212, with potential further resistance at 4238 and 4275/4276. Support levels to monitor are 4168, 4155-4140, and 4120 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in international gold prices to $4100 per ounce has led to an increase in domestic gold prices, prompting banks to adjust the minimum investment thresholds for gold accumulation products [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - International gold prices have recently increased to $4100 per ounce, while domestic prices have risen from 900 yuan per gram at the end of October to over 940 yuan per gram [1]. - The increase in gold prices has resulted in banks raising the minimum investment amounts for gold accumulation products, with many banks surpassing the 1000 yuan threshold [2]. Group 2: Bank Adjustments - Citic Bank announced an increase in the minimum investment for gold accumulation from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan, effective November 15 [1]. - Other banks, including Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have also raised their minimum purchase amounts for gold accumulation products [1][2]. - Some banks have shifted their accumulation models from fixed amounts to variable amounts based on current gold prices [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The gold accumulation business allows customers to either withdraw physical gold or sell it for cash, making it attractive to consumers [2]. - The pricing of gold accumulation products is influenced by the Shanghai Gold Exchange prices, leading to increased thresholds for consumers as gold prices rise [2]. - Traffic Bank has adjusted its gold accumulation plan to a model where the minimum investment is based on the fluctuating gold price, requiring the investment to be at least equal to the current gold price [3]. Group 4: Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that gold remains a reliable asset for hedging against risks and inflation, despite recent price volatility [3]. - The long-term upward trend in gold prices is supported by factors such as global uncertainty and declining real interest rates, although market sensitivity to external news can increase price fluctuations [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, highlighting gold's appeal as a non-yielding safe-haven asset [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including manufacturing PMI and retail sales, fell short of expectations, undermining optimism for a "soft landing" in the U.S. economy [1] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, as well as the tone of Federal Reserve officials' speeches regarding interest rate expectations for December [1] Group 2: Market Performance - Gold prices opened lower at 3999 but rebounded strongly, breaking through the 4050 resistance level and reaching a high of 4116 before closing at 4115, forming a bullish candlestick pattern [1] - The daily MACD indicator shows a golden cross with increasing volume, and the moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, indicating a solid short-term upward structure [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - In the early Asian market, spot gold continued its strong upward trend, reaching a two-week high of 4140, with bullish momentum still present [3] - The hourly chart indicates that after breaking the 4050 resistance, gold entered an accelerated upward channel, with the Bollinger Bands expanding upwards and short-term moving averages showing a steep upward trend [3] - A trading strategy of "mainly short on rebounds, supplemented by long on corrections" is recommended, considering both trend continuation and short-term overbought conditions [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The new gold tax policy implemented on November 1 has significantly disrupted the gold market, leading to increased prices and a shift in trading dynamics, with a notable rise in demand for gold ETFs as physical gold becomes scarce [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On the first day of the new tax policy, trading volume in the Shui Bei market surged by 300%, with gold bar prices skyrocketing from 948 yuan/gram to 1134 yuan/gram, and the buy-sell price spread widening from 27 yuan to over 100 yuan [3]. - Some merchants introduced a "tax-free quota" at 930 yuan/gram, which sold out quickly, while major jewelry brands raised their prices significantly, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry exceeding 1259 yuan/gram, marking a daily increase of 61 yuan [5]. - The tax burden has led to a clear division in the market, with essential buyers turning to rental markets and investors flocking to gold ETFs, which saw a growth of 32.4 billion yuan in the first quarter [5][12]. Group 2: Financial Channels and Investment Trends - As physical gold trading becomes more challenging, financial channels like gold ETFs are gaining traction, with an average net asset value growth of about 20% in the first quarter of 2025, and some ETFs achieving over 40% returns in the past year [7][8]. - The Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF saw its assets increase more than tenfold in 2024, with a net asset growth of 1305% [7]. - The low management fee of 0.15% for the Huaxia Gold ETF has attracted significant institutional investment, with institutional holdings reaching 80% [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Context - The global demand for gold reached a record high of 1313 tons in the third quarter of 2025, with domestic demand for gold bars and coins increasing by 46% year-on-year in the first quarter [3]. - The World Gold Council noted that trade disputes, U.S. policy uncertainty, and recession fears have made gold a core asset for risk aversion, with historical data showing that gold prices typically rise following interest rate cuts [8]. - The divergence between domestic and international gold prices reflects deeper monetary dynamics, with the average price difference between Shanghai and London gold reaching 15 USD/ounce due to currency fluctuations and local supply-demand factors [10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The new tax policy has highlighted fundamental contradictions in the gold market, where supply constraints affect physical gold while monetary policies drive its financial instrument status [12]. - Current gold prices are at historical highs, with significant daily fluctuations, prompting discussions on whether the market is experiencing a bubble or entering a new cycle [14]. - The increasing scarcity of physical gold and the rapid growth of digital gold ETFs suggest a potential shift in investment logic, indicating a historical return of gold as a "ultimate currency" [12][14].