1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, the gold market experienced a sharp shift from "safe - haven frenzy" to "stagflation concerns", with the short - term safe - haven property of gold temporarily overshadowed by soaring interest rate expectations, creating a false impression of "ineffectiveness". In Q2, investors should focus on the "golden pit" layout opportunities between interest rates and geopolitical conflicts [1]. - The current market is forming a "stagflation - like" pattern. In the short term, gold may be under pressure, but as economic downward pressure emerges, its anti - inflation and safe - haven values will re - emerge [2]. - Gold is expected to have a wide - range shock and bottom - building in the short term (1 - 3 months), its allocation value will significantly increase in the medium term (3 - 6 months) if economic data continues to be weak, and it has a long - term bullish logic supported by structural factors in the long term (6 - 12 months). Silver will follow gold to bottom and wait for industrial demand to catalyze in Q2 [3]. - Investors can consider 4300 US dollars per ounce as a tactical layout reference area, and if the price approaches 3900 - 4000 US dollars per ounce due to extreme sentiment, it should be regarded as an important strategic adding opportunity [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Market Review: Violent Fluctuations under Geopolitical Conflicts and Policy Shifts - **Geopolitical Conflicts: From Safe - Haven Pulse to Risk Re - evaluation**: In early March, the US - Israel joint military action against Iran triggered a safe - haven pulse in the market. COMEX gold once exceeded 5400 US dollars per ounce, and Brent crude oil price soared. However, as the conflict situation eased marginally in mid - to late March, high oil prices led to an increase in global inflation expectations, changing the market's macro trading logic [7][10]. - **Monetary Policy Shift: The Fed's Hawkish Signal as the Market Watershed**: The Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a strong hawkish signal, reversing the market's easing expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields directly suppressed the price of gold, and the price of gold dropped significantly [11][14]. - **Asset Performance Differentiation: Different Paths of Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil**: Gold showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while silver performed significantly weaker than gold, with a quarterly decline of more than 4% due to the suppression of its financial and industrial attributes [15][18]. - **Market Structure Change: From Crowded Trading to Liquidity Shock**: The highly crowded long positions in the gold market at the end of 2025 to early 2026 became an amplifier of the market decline when the price turned. The triggering of stop - loss orders in program trading and the widening of bid - ask spreads by market - makers led to a sharp decline in market liquidity [21][24]. - **Structural Factors: Marginal Changes in Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks' continuous gold - buying behavior provided long - term support for the gold price. However, in Q1 2026, the motivation for central bank gold purchases weakened significantly, and selling behavior increased compared to 2025 [25][28]. 3.2 Macro Environment Analysis: The Fed's Hawkish Stance, Inflation Pressure, and Economic Stagflation Risk - **Monetary Policy: A Clear Shift from "Wait - and - See" to "Tightening"**: The Fed's decision in the March interest - rate meeting marked a fundamental shift in its policy stance. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts decreased significantly, and global central banks mostly maintained a hawkish or tightening stance, which put short - term pressure on the gold price [30][33]. - **Inflation Drivers: Energy Prices as the Core Driver and Policy Constraint**: Geopolitical conflicts led to an energy crisis, which was the main driver of inflation. High oil prices increased inflation and suppressed economic growth, forming a stagflation risk. If inflation persists, it may increase the demand for gold as an anti - inflation asset [38][41]. - **Economic Outlook: The Co - existence of "Stagnation" Signs and "Inflation" Pressure**: The US economy showed signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising and the manufacturing PMI approaching the boom - bust line. The global economic growth expectation faced a downward risk, and the current environment formed a "stagflation - like" pattern, which was a stage where gold could play its unique value [42][46]. - **Interest Rates and the US Dollar: Twin Shackles Suppressing Precious Metals**: The Fed's hawkish stance led to an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, which directly suppressed the price of gold. The market was in a game between "interest - rate suppression" and "safe - haven/anti - inflation support" [47][50]. 3.3 Geopolitical Impact Mechanism: The Double - Game and Transmission Path of the Middle East Conflict on Gold - The impact of the Middle East conflict on gold is through two opposite transmission paths: the safe - haven demand support path and the interest - rate expectation suppression path. In Q1 2026, the market's focus shifted from the safe - haven support path to the interest - rate expectation suppression path, and the pricing logic of gold has changed from being driven by geopolitical events to being driven by macro - policy expectations [51][52]. 3.4 Re - examination of Gold's Safe - Haven Property: Verification of Long - Term Logic and Analysis of Short - Term Ineffectiveness - **Solid Foundation and Continuous Verification of Long - Term Safe - Haven Logic**: Gold's long - term safe - haven logic is based on its currency property, scarcity, and functions of hedging long - term inflation and currency depreciation. It has been continuously verified in the long - term, and current structural factors are strengthening this logic [54]. - **Characteristics and Core Mechanisms of Short - Term "Ineffectiveness" in Q1 2026**: In March 2026, the short - term performance of gold was contrary to traditional safe - haven cognition. This "ineffectiveness" was the result of multiple suppression mechanisms under specific market conditions, rather than the disappearance of its safe - haven property [55]. - **Differentiated Performance of Short - Term and Long - Term Logic Based on the Nature of the Crisis**: Gold's safe - haven property depends on the nature of the crisis. In the short term, it may be affected by interest - rate and liquidity factors, but in the long term, its safe - haven and anti - inflation properties will re - emerge [56]. - **Subsequent Verification: Key Indicators for Observing the Return of Long - Term Logic**: In Q2, key indicators such as the Fed's policy and inflation game, market liquidity, geopolitical risk transmission path, and the continuity of structural demand should be closely monitored to judge whether gold's safe - haven property will return to the dominant state [57][58]. 3.5 Future Gold Price Changes at Different Time Nodes - **Short - Term (1 - 3 months)**: The gold price will be affected by the after - effects of the liquidity shock and the tug - of - war of interest - rate expectations. It may show a wide - range shock pattern in the early stage of Q2, and 4200 US dollars per ounce is the first support level to be verified [61]. - **Medium - Term (3 - 6 months)**: The market will focus on economic data verification. If economic data continues to be weak, the market will trade the economic recession risk and expect the Fed to loosen monetary policy, and the allocation value of gold will significantly increase [62]. - **Long - Term (6 - 12 months)**: Gold's pricing logic has shifted to a structural bull market driven by the deep - seated transformation of the global monetary system. Global debt, central bank gold purchases, and the de - dollarization process provide long - term support for gold [64]. 3.6 Silver Market Analysis: Industrial Attributes, Relative Performance, and Q2 Outlook - **Reasons for the Silver Price Decline in Q1**: In Q1 2026, the silver market was weak, with a decline of 4.26% in the London silver spot price. Its weakness was due to the simultaneous pressure on its financial and industrial attributes. The financial attribute was suppressed by the Fed's hawkish stance, and the industrial demand expectation was weakened by the uncertain global economic outlook [67][68]. - **Q2 Silver Outlook: Following Gold to Bottom and Waiting for Industrial Demand Catalysis**: In Q2, silver will mainly follow gold to fluctuate. If the market expects the Fed to loosen policy in the middle and late Q2, the suppression of silver's financial attribute will be alleviated. The recovery of industrial demand may drive silver to have an independent upward market, but it also faces greater downward risks [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the diminishing safe-haven appeal of gold amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict, highlighting the contrasting performance of oil and gold prices during this geopolitical turmoil [2]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold's Diminished Safe-Haven Status - The US-Iran conflict has reached a stalemate, limiting the intensity and scope of the conflict, which has reduced the upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - The "see-saw effect" between oil and gold prices is evident, where rising oil prices due to supply shocks lead to increased inflation concerns, subsequently diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which negatively impacts gold prices [6]. Group 2: Limited Downside for Gold - The trading dynamics suggest that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold exceeds 30%, the maximum short-term drawdown is typically around 20%-25%. Recent data indicates that gold's IV reached 31%, with a maximum drawdown of 24.4% observed [8]. - The policy environment indicates that significant further declines in gold prices below $4,000 per ounce would require a sustained increase in interest rate hike expectations, which are currently not anticipated by the market [10]. Group 3: Weak Foundations for Short-Term Gold Rebound - Current oil supply shocks are identified as a major risk factor, with recent events causing Brent crude oil prices to approach $120 per barrel, leading to a rapid decline in gold prices from over $5,000 per ounce to around $4,500 [13]. - Efforts by the US to stabilize oil prices through the easing of sanctions on Iranian oil are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days [17]. - The low cost of blocking the Strait of Hormuz by Iran poses a challenge for restoring oil flow to pre-conflict levels, complicating the outlook for gold prices amid persistent inflation concerns [19].

Market Observation - The market is questioning the safe-haven property of gold as its price has not reacted positively to the recent US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant rise in oil prices and the US dollar[1] - The current geopolitical situation has caused gold's safe-haven appeal to diminish, primarily due to the conflict being largely contained between the US, Israel, and Iran[11] Reasons for Limited Downside in Gold - The maximum drawdown for gold has reached 24.4%, nearing the critical threshold of 25%, suggesting limited further downside potential[17] - Historical data indicates that when the implied volatility (IV) of gold options exceeds 30%, the maximum drawdown typically ranges from 20% to 25%[17] - The market has priced in no interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve for 2026, and any significant drop below $4,000 per ounce may require an increase in interest rate expectations[20] Short-Term Rebound Concerns - The foundation for a short-term rebound in gold is considered weak due to the ongoing oil supply shocks, which have led to oil prices nearing $120 per barrel, negatively impacting gold prices[22] - The US's measures to stabilize oil prices are deemed insufficient, as the release of 140 million barrels of Iranian oil would only cover global consumption for 1-2 days[25] - The probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-conflict flow levels is now below 30%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures that could challenge gold's rebound sustainability[25] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a strategy of "slow rise, fast fall" in gold investments, focusing on buying during short-term dips to lower long-term holding costs[28] Risk Factors - Potential aggressive policies from the Trump administration could lead to stagflation or recession in the US, increasing economic risks[29] - Unexpected tariff expansions could slow global economic growth significantly, impacting market stability[29] - Rising geopolitical tensions may lead to increased asset price volatility, complicating investment strategies[29]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices despite geopolitical tensions, highlighting a shift in market dynamics where traditional safe-haven attributes of gold are being overshadowed by a strong US dollar and tightening liquidity conditions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently dropped significantly, with international gold prices falling below $4100 per ounce for the first time since November 24, erasing all gains for the year [1]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has noted increased volatility in precious metal prices due to various market instability factors, urging investors to manage risks carefully [1]. Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have not led to the expected rise in gold prices, as the market is currently influenced more by a strong dollar and rising real interest rates [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that if the geopolitical situation escalates further, it could prolong the current downward adjustment in gold prices, while a significant reversal in the Iran situation could stabilize gold prices more quickly [3][6]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical risks are affecting inflation expectations and market perceptions of Federal Reserve monetary policy, leading to a decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - The dollar's status as a preferred safe-haven asset has strengthened, attracting funds that might have otherwise flowed into gold, resulting in a "dollar up, gold down" scenario [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, long-term support for gold prices remains, driven by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credibility [7][8]. - Analysts believe that once the current liquidity crisis subsides, gold prices may stabilize and potentially rise again, with the market closely watching Federal Reserve policy changes [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in gold prices, which has fallen below 1400 RMB per gram for domestic gold jewelry, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that typically drive investors towards gold as a safe haven asset [1][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On March 21, the price of gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang was quoted at 1389 RMB per gram, a decrease of 54 RMB in one day, and down 151 RMB from 1540 RMB per gram on March 16 [1][2]. - Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry price also dropped from 1447 RMB per gram to 1397 RMB per gram, with a single-day decline of 50 RMB [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Analysts attribute the decline in gold prices to a shift in market focus from geopolitical risks to inflation expectations and monetary policy dynamics, particularly influenced by statements from the Federal Reserve [6][7]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that rising energy prices due to the conflict have increased inflation, and the Fed will not consider interest rate cuts until inflation shows significant improvement, leading to a stronger dollar [6]. Group 3: Changes in Market Participants - The structure of the gold market has changed, with a growing presence of ETFs and quantitative funds that tend to trade quickly, exacerbating price volatility [7]. - Despite the recent downturn, gold has still seen a year-to-date increase of 4.02%, indicating that the long-term investment logic for gold remains intact [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while short-term volatility in the gold market may persist due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy changes, the long-term value of gold as a safe haven asset is expected to remain [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, Shanjin International (stock code: 000975) [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 17.099 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.972 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [5]. - The cost of gold production has significantly decreased, with the average cost per gram dropping by 3.22 yuan to 142.18 yuan/gram in 2025. The fourth quarter saw costs as low as 126 yuan/gram [5]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the full acquisition of Yunnan Western Mining Co., which enhances its gold resource base and exploration capabilities [5]. - The company plans to initiate an H-share listing to support its global expansion strategy, with funds primarily allocated for mining construction and exploration [5]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported a revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.972 billion yuan. The fourth quarter revenue was 2.103 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 38.88% [5][6]. - The projected revenues for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 22.054 billion yuan, 27.636 billion yuan, and 32.204 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 5.890 billion yuan, 7.427 billion yuan, and 8.377 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve significantly, reaching 45.60% in 2026 [6]. Production and Resource Management - The company’s gold and silver production volumes slightly declined in 2025, with gold production at 7.6 tons and silver at 164.1 tons, down 5.47% and 16.3% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The company has successfully increased its gold resource reserves by 16.62 tons and silver reserves by 296.57 tons in 2025, indicating strong resource continuity [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its global strategy by initiating an H-share listing, which is expected to enhance its growth potential and support future acquisitions [5]. - The company’s international projects, such as the Osino project in Namibia, are set to commence production in the first half of 2027, with an expected annual gold output of 5 tons [5].

Group 1 - The global gold market continues to show strong upward momentum, with spot gold prices reaching $5,248.89 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 20% [1] - The recent surge began in Q4 2025 and accelerated in early 2026, with prices rising from $4,000 to over $5,500 in just three months, driven by heightened investor interest in gold's safe-haven properties [1] - Factors contributing to increased market risk sentiment include escalating trade tensions involving the U.S., sovereignty disputes over Greenland, and the spillover effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy [1] Group 2 - The dollar index has declined by 9% since early 2025, marking its worst annual performance since 2003, with the IMF reporting that the dollar's share in global central bank reserves has fallen to 56.92%, the lowest since 1995 [2] - Major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Bank of America have set optimistic price targets for gold, with Morgan Stanley maintaining a target of $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Bank of America anticipates prices reaching $6,000 within the next 12 months [2] - Analysts suggest that gold has entered an "ultra-sovereign currency" era, with its pricing logic shifting from being solely interest rate-driven to being influenced by global monetary stability, fiscal sustainability, and geopolitical risks [2]

Group 1 - Domestic and international gold prices continue to rise, with London spot gold at $5167.4 per ounce and domestic gold price at 1145 yuan per gram [1] - Retail prices of gold jewelry from brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook exceed raw material costs, with prices around 1545 yuan per gram [2] - Platinum retail prices show significant variation, with Lao Feng Xiang at 960 yuan per gram, while others hover around 860 yuan [3] Group 2 - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market experiences a surge in consumer activity during the Spring Festival, with daily foot traffic reaching 6000 to 8000 people [4] - Consumers exhibit a "buy high, sell low" mentality, believing gold prices will continue to rise, leading to increased purchases of auspicious jewelry [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have influenced gold prices, raising questions about gold's traditional safe-haven status [6] Group 3 - The current gold bull market may be nearing its end, with a cumulative increase of over 200% since October 2022, driven by central bank purchases and global financial concerns [8] - Analysts suggest that gold's recent performance indicates a shift towards risk asset behavior rather than traditional safe-haven characteristics [8] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's integration with Hong Kong's central clearing system is expected to enhance cross-border trading efficiency, although long-term investment appeal may be challenged [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with international gold prices dropping sharply from a high of $5240 to $5132.63, resulting in a daily decline of over $100 and a price difference of more than 420 yuan per gram in domestic markets [1][3][4]. Price Movements - International gold prices peaked at $5237.71 per ounce before falling to $5132.63, marking a nearly 2% drop within a single day [3]. - Domestic gold prices reflected this volatility, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a price of 1143.97 yuan per gram, down by 3.97 yuan from the previous trading day [4]. - Retail prices for gold jewelry varied significantly, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang pricing at 1560 yuan per gram, while lower-end brands like Cai Bai offered prices as low as 1325 yuan per gram, indicating a price gap of 100 yuan per gram among retailers [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The price differences across various channels were attributed to operational costs, brand premiums, and the speed of price adjustments, with banks offering lower prices for investment gold bars compared to retail jewelry [6][7]. - The gold recycling market showed prices closely aligned with the market benchmark, with some recyclers offering higher prices due to differences in service fees and weighing rules [7]. Influencing Factors - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by technical factors, including profit-taking by investors after a two-month price increase and the market's overbought condition [7]. - The strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields also pressured gold prices, as a stronger dollar increases the cost of gold for overseas investors [9]. - Market sentiment was further affected by adjustments in expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with hawkish statements from Fed officials leading to a temporary outflow of funds from the gold market [9][10]. Domestic Market Resilience - Despite international price drops, the domestic gold market showed relative stability, supported by physical demand and central bank purchases [12]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted margin requirements and price limits for certain contracts in response to market volatility, indicating a proactive approach to managing trading conditions [12][15]. Price Disparities - The significant price differences across various channels highlighted the impact of market dynamics, with the highest retail price exceeding the benchmark price by over 420 yuan per gram [7][13]. - The volatility in gold prices has led to a re-evaluation of pricing structures across the entire gold supply chain, from exchanges to retail outlets [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with retail prices reaching 1545 yuan per gram, reflects significant market volatility and varying pricing structures across different sales channels [1][5][6]. Pricing Structure - Retail gold prices at major jewelry stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have increased to 1545 yuan per gram, up from 1518 yuan, indicating a rise of 27 yuan per gram [1]. - In contrast, the wholesale market in Shenzhen quotes gold at 1298 yuan per gram, while banks offer investment gold bars at prices ranging from 1150.14 to 1155 yuan per gram, showing a significant price disparity of up to 445 yuan per gram between retail and wholesale [3][5][6]. - The gold recovery market offers a uniform buyback price of around 1100 yuan per gram, regardless of the purchase price, highlighting the lack of brand value in the recovery process [6]. Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving U.S. military actions and Iranian military exercises, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8]. - Expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in March, which has affected gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [9][11]. - Domestic demand for gold jewelry has surged post-Chinese New Year, contributing to higher retail prices, while global central bank purchases of gold provide long-term support for prices [12]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, with a preference for investment gold bars and lower-weight gold products, indicating a shift towards viewing gold as a long-term asset rather than just a luxury item [14]. - Innovative purchasing strategies are emerging, where consumers buy investment gold bars from banks and then have them crafted into jewelry at lower costs, balancing investment and personal use [16]. Market Predictions - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of 5400 USD per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks [16].