全球央行购金潮未现放缓迹象。中国央行自2024年11月起连续14个月增持黄金，截至2025年12月末储备 量达7415万盎司；新兴市场央行普遍将黄金在外汇储备中的占比提升至10%以上，以分散对美元的依 赖。 2月28日，全球黄金市场延续强劲涨势，现货黄金价格盘中触及每盎司5248.89美元，年内累计涨幅已超 20%。 这一轮上涨行情始于2025年第四季度，并在2026年初加速突破，仅用三个月时间从每盎司4000美元飙升 至5500美元以上，引发全球投资者对黄金避险属性的高度关注。 2026年初，美国与多国贸易摩擦加剧、格陵兰岛主权争端、俄乌冲突外溢等事件频发，叠加美国政府内 部权力博弈与财政政策不确定性，市场避险情绪急剧升温。丹麦、瑞典等国养老基金近期大规模抛售美 债资产，转而增持黄金，进一步推高需求。 摩根大通维持2026年底目标价每盎司6300美元不变，并指出若0.5%的海外美国资产配置转向黄金，金 价或直冲6000美元。美国银行预计未来12个月内金价触及6000美元，强调当前上涨由结构性变化驱动， 技术性买盘并非主因。 高盛将2026年末目标价从4900美元上调至5400美元，认为央行月均购金60吨、美 ...

2026年2月，国内品牌金店价格普遍超1500元/克，水贝市场春节"不打烊"引发抢购潮，黄金牛市面临回调压力，分析认为其避险属性减弱，或已进入周期尾 声。 一、国内外黄金价格持续走高 伦敦现货黄金报5167.4美元/盎司，纽约期金达5191.1美元/盎司；国内实时金价为1145元/克，白银为21.3元/克，铂金为493元/克。 上海黄金交易所数据显示，人民币黄金交易价为1108.50元/克，较前日下跌1.284%，日内波动区间为1084.50至1126.51元/克。 国际市场上，伦敦金现价5160.91美元/盎司，最高触及5176.28美元；纽约金收于5182美元/盎司，盘中一度突破5198美元。 白银方面，伦敦现货银报87.2美元/盎司，美银合约报87.9美元；国内白银T D报价约21.4元/克。 二、品牌金店零售价高于基础金价 金饰品牌零售价格远高于原料成本，周大福、六福、谢瑞麟等品牌黄金挂牌价均为1545元/克，周生生略高至1550元/克；老凤祥与老庙黄金同为1538元/克， 菜百相对较低，为1508元/克，金条产品中，菜百售价1295元/克，老凤祥高达1396元/克。 铂金零售价差异明显，老凤祥报价9 ...

2026年2月25日凌晨，国际黄金市场率先变天。 伦敦现货黄金的价格在盘中最高冲到了5237.71美元一盎司，但随 后就像坐上了滑梯，一路下跌。 到了早上7点12分，价格已经跌到了5132.63美元，单日跌幅接近2%，一天之内就 跌掉了超过100美元。 这种剧烈的波动让很多投资者措手不及，盘中振幅超过了140美元，是近期波动最大的交易 日之一。 国际市场的动荡迅速传到了国内。 截至2月25日早上6点40分，国内黄金市场的基准价格已经更新。 上海黄金交易 所的黄金T D价格报1143.97元一克，比前一个交易日下跌了3.97元。 沪金主连合约报1145.20元一克，下跌了6.34 元。 行业通用的参考价融通金报价1164.05元一克。 这组价格是今天所有国内金价的定价基础，金店、银行、回 收商都要参考这个价格来调整自己的报价。 今天早上，黄金市场发生了惊人的一幕。 国际金价从5240美元的高位直线跳水，国内不同渠道的黄金报价瞬间拉 出了超过420元/克的价差。 这意味着，如果你今天在不同的地方买黄金，可能要为同样一克黄金多付420元。 这 个价差足以让一条30克的金手镯，在不同店铺之间的差价超过一万两千元。 普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with retail prices reaching 1545 yuan per gram, reflects significant market volatility and varying pricing structures across different sales channels [1][5][6]. Pricing Structure - Retail gold prices at major jewelry stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have increased to 1545 yuan per gram, up from 1518 yuan, indicating a rise of 27 yuan per gram [1]. - In contrast, the wholesale market in Shenzhen quotes gold at 1298 yuan per gram, while banks offer investment gold bars at prices ranging from 1150.14 to 1155 yuan per gram, showing a significant price disparity of up to 445 yuan per gram between retail and wholesale [3][5][6]. - The gold recovery market offers a uniform buyback price of around 1100 yuan per gram, regardless of the purchase price, highlighting the lack of brand value in the recovery process [6]. Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving U.S. military actions and Iranian military exercises, are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [8]. - Expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy have shifted, with a low probability of interest rate cuts in March, which has affected gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [9][11]. - Domestic demand for gold jewelry has surged post-Chinese New Year, contributing to higher retail prices, while global central bank purchases of gold provide long-term support for prices [12]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are becoming more discerning, with a preference for investment gold bars and lower-weight gold products, indicating a shift towards viewing gold as a long-term asset rather than just a luxury item [14]. - Innovative purchasing strategies are emerging, where consumers buy investment gold bars from banks and then have them crafted into jewelry at lower costs, balancing investment and personal use [16]. Market Predictions - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of 5400 USD per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks [16].

2月20日晚间，国际金价大涨超2%，重新站上5100美元/盎司关口。 智通财经记者多方采访获悉，此轮金价上涨的直接推手是美国最高法院否决了总统特朗普的关税政策， 叠加特朗普公开表示"正在考虑有限打击伊朗"，导致全球资金避险情绪上升。 多位受访业内人士表示，支撑金价上涨的底层逻辑并未改变。美元信用地位持续受到挑战，黄金作 为"硬通货"的避险属性正被反复催化，建议投资者锚定长期趋势布局，谨防高位震荡风险。 地缘风险频现催化，金价上涨底层逻辑未改 上述美国最高院的裁决虽然取消了部分关税，但特朗普随即宣布将依据其他法律对全球商品加征10%的 新关税。在市场人士看来，新贸易政策的不确定性，引发了资金的避险需求。 罗振宇向智通财经记者表示，在未来至少半年时间内，金价可能会以5000美元/盎司为轴，上下震荡为 主，震荡之后，黄金下一个目标将直指1万美元/盎司。 前述券商首席分析师向智通财经记者表示，未来金价仍以上涨为主，但可能在下一届美联储主席上台之 前或出现波动，就目前公开的美联储主席候选人来看，市场的分歧在于他可能"既要缩表又要降息"，这 两者的先后顺序届时将对金价产生较大影响。 洛阳钼业（603993.SH）相关人士 ...

投资是长久之计，不是一朝一夕，所以不可操之过急。就算你现在亏损了，那也没什么可怕的，只要选择正确，失去的都会再回来。对于经常被套单的投资 朋友贺博生告诉你要切记以下5点禁忌：①、重仓操作。②、不带止损。③、逆势操作。④、频繁操作。⑤、心态不好操作。缘来不拒，缘走不留，茫茫人 海相识成为朋友也是一种缘分。素不相识的投资朋友只因看了我的文章信任我，所以每位找到我的投资朋友我都会给予最大的帮助，让这份信任变的更有价 值。希望贺博生的文章能给你带来收获，在接下来的投资里顺风顺水。 面临亏损你必须知道的事： 一：喜欢抄底/顶，每当行情处于历史低位/高位的价格，心里就乐开了花，一到低位/高位就开始布.局，但没想到，既然一个价格已经创出了历史新低/高， 那么很可能还会出现另一个新低/高一抄一个损； 黄金下周行情趋势分析： 二：不愿止损，往往都是抱有一种侥幸心理，因为有时候发现止损后价格过不了多久就回来了，因此下次就也抱着这种希望，但往往不止损的后果都是更严 重的大亏或爆仓，这在长久的投资中是万万不可行的，"截断亏损，让利润奔跑"，确实是至理名言； 黄金消息面解析：周五（2月20日）美盘时段，受弱于预期的美国四季度GDP数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese gold market is experiencing a significant price disparity between retail prices and exchange prices, influenced by international market trends and domestic market conditions during the Chinese New Year holiday [1][3][19] Price Discrepancy - On February 19, 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T D price was 1108.50 CNY per gram, while retail prices at stores like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reached 1560 CNY per gram, creating a gap of nearly 450 CNY [1][3] - The T D price reflects the last trading day before the holiday (February 13), not the current market price, as the exchange was closed during the holiday [4][19] International Market Dynamics - On the same day, the London spot gold price surpassed 5000 USD per ounce, marking a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [6][19] - The price in London rose by 36.6 USD (0.74%) from the previous day, indicating strong international market activity despite the domestic market's stagnation [6] Central Bank Purchases - Global central banks purchased 863 tons of gold in 2025, with China's central bank holding 7419 million ounces (approximately 2307 tons) as of January 2026, indicating a strategic increase in gold reserves [7][19] Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy - Strong U.S. employment data in January 2026 altered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced attractiveness of gold as an investment [9][10] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.35%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [10] Market Segmentation - The Chinese gold market has developed three distinct pricing tiers: - The lowest tier reflects the financial attributes of gold, with T D prices closely tied to international market movements [12][19] - The middle tier represents wholesale prices, such as those in Shenzhen, which are close to raw material costs [13][19] - The highest tier consists of retail prices at brand stores, which include significant premiums for craftsmanship and branding [15][19] Consumer Behavior - The high retail prices have led consumers to adjust their purchasing strategies, opting for lighter, simpler designs or using "old for new" exchange methods rather than buying new high-weight jewelry [17][19] - The disparity in prices also affects the gold recycling market, where the recovery price for gold is significantly lower than retail prices, reflecting the loss of added value from branding and craftsmanship [16][19]

事实上，当前黄金的高位运行，核心支撑逻辑高度依赖全球避险情绪的发酵。2025年以来，受美联储政 策摇摆、俄乌冲突持续扰动、全球经济复苏乏力等多重因素影响，黄金作为传统避险资产受到资金疯狂 追捧，推动金价在一年内累计上涨超60%，一度突破每盎司4600美元的历史峰值。但随着2026年下半年 三大关键事件的逐步落地，这一核心支撑将彻底消失。 首先，俄乌冲突的和平解决预期不断升温，地缘避险需求将大幅消退。近期外交层面传来明确进展，俄 罗斯、乌克兰和美国首次进行三方接触，双方在核心领土问题上的立场已显著接近，市场普遍预期2026 年下半年有望达成实质性和平协议。尽管这场冲突已不可逆转地重塑了全球地缘政治格局，但和平协议 的达成将有效稳定市场情绪，恢复全球物流与能源供应秩序，此前因地缘风险溢价而推高的金价，将失 去重要支撑。 其次，美国经济的强劲韧性进一步瓦解黄金的避险属性。最新数据显示，2026年1月美国非农就业新增 25.7万人，远超市场预期的18万人，失业率稳定在3.9%的低位，劳动参与率小幅回升至62.8%；同时，1 月制造业PMI从47.1回升至49.2，距离荣枯线仅一步之遥，新订单指数更是进入扩张区间。此外 ...

Core Insights - The international gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a peak of over $5,600 per ounce before dropping more than 20% and stabilizing above $5,000 [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Historical data indicates that gold prices have long been influenced by factors such as safe-haven demand, U.S. dollar credit, and real interest rates, with the weight of these factors changing over different historical periods [2] - In the 1970s, inflation and oil crises drove gold prices, while from the 1980s to the early 2000s, economic growth and a strong dollar led to a prolonged period of low gold prices [2] - The current gold price increase is characterized by a structural shift, where the influence of real interest rates is diminishing, and safe-haven attributes combined with credit reassessment are becoming dual driving forces [2] Group 2: New Dynamics in Gold Pricing - In 2026, a coexistence of a strong dollar and strong gold has emerged, indicating a reduced correlation between the two, suggesting that gold is seeking a new dynamic balance under multiple influencing factors [3] - Analysts believe that as long as global macroeconomic uncertainties persist, gold prices will maintain solid support, leading to a "defensive growth" investment strategy [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026, citing that diverse demand from the private sector and emerging markets is hedging against policy risks [3] Group 3: Central Bank Influence on Gold Prices - Global central banks have shifted from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, with purchases expected to remain high at around 755 tons in 2026, significantly above historical averages prior to 2022 [4][5] - This shift reflects a reassessment of the security of reserve assets in the current geopolitical context, with increased gold reserves becoming a strategic defensive measure [5] - A survey by the World Gold Council indicates that most central banks plan to increase or maintain their gold reserves in the coming year, reinforcing gold's strategic value as a risk-free physical asset [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to a complex interplay of factors, indicating a fundamental shift in the global monetary system and the role of central banks, as well as a reevaluation of the definition of safe-haven assets [1][3]. Group 1: Changes in Monetary System and Safe-Haven Assets - Gold's traditional role as an "anti-inflation" and "hedge against dollar credit risk" is being challenged, particularly with the potential rise of digital currencies and regional currency alliances, which could diminish gold's insurance value [3][4]. - The market's perception of a changing global monetary system, including the advancement of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), may lead to a reassessment of gold's status as the ultimate reserve asset [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Dynamics - The role of central banks in supporting gold prices has been significant, but economic pressures may lead emerging market central banks to sell gold reserves, similar to past crises [4]. - There is growing skepticism in the market regarding the sustainability of central bank gold purchases, which may have already influenced price movements [4]. Group 3: ETF and Market Liquidity Risks - The structural risks and liquidity vulnerabilities of gold ETFs can exacerbate market volatility, as large-scale redemptions could trigger physical gold shortages or futures market squeezes [4]. - The disconnect between "paper gold" and physical delivery poses a risk, especially during periods of market stress [4]. Group 4: Competition from Digital Assets - The rise of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, is competing with gold for the safe-haven asset market, attracting younger investors and potentially reducing traditional demand for gold [5]. - A shift of funds from gold to cryptocurrencies, especially during market recoveries, could significantly alter gold's market position [5]. Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - The potential for gold to be used as a financial weapon in geopolitical conflicts may undermine its attractiveness, as concerns about the safety and accessibility of gold reserves grow [5]. - The indirect effects of geopolitical events may be quietly eroding the consensus on gold as a safe-haven asset [5].