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美国违约往事
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-11-08 22:22
Core Viewpoint - The book "American Default" by Sebastian Edwards reveals a historical narrative that contradicts the mainstream perception of U.S. national credit, highlighting the controversial actions taken by President Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression, which effectively constituted a large-scale debt default by abolishing the "gold clause" in debt contracts [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - During the Great Depression from 1929 to 1932, the U.S. faced unprecedented economic disaster, characterized by plummeting prices that triggered a "debt-deflation" cycle [1]. - By 1933, debts containing "gold clauses" accounted for 180% of GDP, exceeding today's U.S. government debt-to-GDP ratio, complicating the situation for debtors if the dollar were devalued [2]. Group 2: Roosevelt's Actions - Roosevelt's government undertook a series of controversial measures, including the forced confiscation of gold, which mandated individuals and businesses to sell their gold to the Federal Reserve at a fixed price, with severe penalties for non-compliance [3]. - The government was granted the authority to devalue the dollar by up to 50% through the Thomas Amendment, and subsequently, the gold clause was declared invalid in all past and future contracts [3]. - The official gold price was raised from $20.67 to $35 per ounce, representing a 69% devaluation of the dollar against gold [3]. Group 3: Economic Recovery - Contrary to expectations, the abolition of the gold clause did not severely damage government credibility or bond demand; instead, the U.S. economy quickly emerged from deflation and began to recover [3]. Group 4: Comparison with Argentina - The Argentine government, facing a similar crisis in 2001, attempted to convert dollar-denominated debt into pesos, which was viewed as a default, leading to legal challenges and loss of market access [4][5]. - The author categorizes U.S. defaults as "excusable defaults" due to extreme circumstances, while Argentina's actions were seen as "malicious defaults" [5]. Group 5: Implications for Future Debt Management - The historical precedent challenges the notion that debts must be repaid unconditionally, suggesting that crises can provide legitimacy for debt adjustments [6]. - The author expresses a relatively optimistic view regarding the U.S. avoiding similar defaults in the future due to its current floating exchange rate system, although hidden debt risks remain [7]. - The current U.S. debt situation differs fundamentally from the 1930s, as the U.S. is no longer in a period of rising power, raising questions about market tolerance for potential future defaults [8].