| FEEF 2 BH F 11/1 | | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月05日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 白银 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 周末美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动抓获总统马杜罗。虽然事件级别影响力相对有限，但年初首个黑天鹅事件 体现全球地缘乱局延续，特朗普还对古巴、哥伦比亚提出警告，仍需关注后续演绎。贵金属牛市逻辑不改， 资金情绪主导责金属剧烈波动,在国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和交易限制后,市场波动率依然非常高,谨 慎参与,待波动率下降后维持多头参与思路。本周美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the weakening of the US dollar and the improvement of risk appetite led to a steeper curve overseas, while in China, loose funds drove the yield curve to steepen. The bond market remained volatile due to the supply - demand contradiction at the long end [2]. - In 2026, the PPI is facing three positive factors: the tail - lifting factor, imported inflation, and the continued effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. Under the neutral scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. The mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors to significantly affect the bond market [3][55]. - Currently, the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. There are some structural opportunities, such as the follow - up rise opportunity of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression opportunity of credit spreads [4]. Summary by Directory PART1: December 2025 - Curve Steepening Driven by Overseas and Domestic Factors Overseas - In December 2025, the Fed announced reserve management - style purchases (RMP) and continued to cut interest rates. The US dollar index weakened, liquidity improved, the US stock market rose, and risk appetite recovered. The US bond yield curve steepened due to factors like Fed's short - term bond purchase, market concerns about Fed independence, and rising commodity prices. Precious and industrial metals performed well, with copper benefiting from AI demand and gold and silver supported by geopolitical events [10][16]. Domestic - In November 2025, the domestic economic fundamentals showed a divergence between quantity and price, and in December, both supply and demand declined. The capital market was generally loose, and the overnight interest rate hit a new low for the year. The bond market remained volatile due to the long - end supply - demand contradiction, and the yield curve steepened [17][23]. - In terms of institutional behavior, large banks and insurance companies, as allocation players, increased their bond - buying in the secondary market in December. Large banks added some policy - related financial bonds and focused on 5 - 7 - year varieties. Insurance companies mainly added long - term treasury bonds. Trading players became conservative. Rural commercial banks mainly invested in certificates of deposit, funds reduced duration and mainly sold long - term treasury bonds, and wealth management products seasonally reduced bond allocation and slightly increased credit bond allocation [26][35][47]. PART2: How the 2026 Re - inflation Narrative May Affect the Bond Market 2026 PPI's Three Positive Factors - The tail - lifting factor can support the PPI to turn positive in the second half of 2026 even without new price - increasing factors [55]. - Imported inflation may occur as overseas capital expenditure and manufacturing investment are likely to rise in 2026. The US deficit rate may expand, and the Fed's new round of easing may release emerging market countries' capital expenditure demand [57]. - The "anti - involution" policy has shown a supporting effect on the PPI. Since August 2025, the month - on - month PPI of the mining industry has turned positive, driving the overall PPI to turn positive since October [60]. PPI Forecast under Different Scenarios - Under the pessimistic scenario, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2026 with an average monthly PPI growth rate of 0%. Under the neutral scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.1%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in the second quarter of 2026 and reach around 1.2% by the end of the year. Under the optimistic scenario, with a monthly average PPI growth rate of 0.2%, the PPI is expected to turn positive in April 2026 and exceed 2% in the second half of the year [67]. PPI's Impact on the Bond Market - Historically, during the four PPI upward cycles since 2009, three typical upward periods were driven by the resonance of domestic and overseas demand or supply - demand. The PPI and the bond market generally move in the same direction, but there were several periods of divergence, mainly due to strong economic recovery expectations or PPI being mainly affected by the supply side while the domestic demand did not improve significantly and the monetary policy remained loose [69][71]. - In 2026, the mild re - inflation needs to resonate with other factors such as total demand, central bank's capital management, financial institutions' liability - side stability, and the flow of activated household deposits to significantly affect the bond market. The trading of typical total assets based on re - inflation may have limited odds [78]. PART3: Bond Market Strategy for January 2026 - In January 2026, the bond market may still be in a wait - and - see period. Potential risks include government bond supply pressure, the spring rally in the equity market, and the first - quarter credit boom. Potential positive factors include the possible relaxation of large banks' bond - allocation pressure and the relatively loose capital market, with a higher probability of a reserve - requirement ratio cut than an interest - rate cut in January [81]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, lacking the motivation and space for trend trading. Structurally, there are opportunities such as the follow - up rise of 5 - 7Y China Development Bank bonds and the compression of credit spreads in credit bonds [4][83].

专题：2025年国际财经新闻大盘点 核心要点 ✅ 摩根士丹利资本国际全球所有国家指数 2025 年涨幅超 21%，近期创历史新高 ✅ 欧洲股市受银行业领涨提振大幅攀升，但 2026 年估值重估或制约上涨空间 新兴市场包揽涨幅榜前列，成为 2025 年全球股市的核心亮点。 德意志银行将 2025 年市场特征总结为："热点轮动迅猛，却暗藏突发回调风险"。全球再通胀动力推动 资产价格普涨，而估值水平、板块集中度及政策差异，又导致各地区市场表现分化严重。 ✅ 亚洲股市前景取决于政策支持与人工智能需求，各市场涨幅分化显著 2025 年全球股市走出强势行情，但板块表现差距持续扩大、市场预期不断走高，意味着 2026 年股市或 将迎来优质赢家与短期热点的分化，真正具备增长韧性的标的将脱颖而出。 伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示，摩根士丹利资本国际全球所有国家指数（MSCI ACWI） 覆盖发达与新 兴市场 2500 余只大、中盘股票，年内涨幅超 21%，并于 12 月 26 日触及 1024 点的历史新高。 2025 年全球股市冠军：哥伦比亚 晨星为美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）整理的数据显示，哥伦比亚股市年内涨幅超 91 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 广发期货研究 证监许可【2011】1292号 叶倩宁 Z0016628 2025年12月30日 星期二 一、2025年行情回顾 回顾2025年，宏观和地缘政治事件叠加供需错配、市场情绪等驱动贵金属全年呈现"狂飙"走势超越大多 数机构年初的预期，铂钯在供需基本面较强的背景下涨势"突出"。12月以来，经过短期的"休整"后以白 银和铂金等为代表的贵金属商品启动了新一轮"凶猛"的涨价潮，长期的紧缺、强劲的需求和相对有限的 库存造成短期的供需错配为价格提供支撑，投资者的关注度持续升温，资金流入加速行情陡峭"攀升"。 国际铂金现货价格自月初的1664美元/盎司的位置大幅拉升并突破2008年的历史前高最高至2478.5美元/ 盎司，波动幅度接近50%。11月底在广州期货交易所上市的铂金期货在不满1个月的情况下，主力2606 合约多个交易日出现涨停并传导至2026 年8 月、10 月和12 月到期的合约，成交和持仓量不断上升，同 时呈现出相对外盘较高的溢价。钯金走势则以跟随铂金波动为主上涨动力相对更弱，价格自月内低点拉 升至1959.7美元/盎司，振幅约37. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.26美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化240元/吨至23440元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水130元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日230元/吨至23380元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日220元/吨至23340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-29沪锌主力合约开于23105元/吨，收于23255元/吨，较前一交易日125元/吨，全天交易日成交 242907手，全天交易日持仓93687手，日内价格最高点达到23470元/吨，最低点达到23000元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-29，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.19万吨，较上期变化-0.28万吨。截止2025-12-29，LME 锌库存为106550吨，较上一交易日变化-325吨。 去库持续现货升贴水坚挺 市场分析 社会库存保持重心下滑态势，现货升贴水表现良好，华东地区升水大幅度走高。现货市场方面，下游畏高刚需采 购，叠加部分工厂元旦有放假安排，市场成交偏冷清。内外比价快速回归，锌矿进口 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 宏观经济 开局之年，周期向何处去 ——2026 年宏观经济展望 宏观深度研究 主要观点： 外部环境： 预计 2026 年美国经济短周期仍处于扩张阶段，再通胀概率较大。受减 税、加大投资、关税干扰减弱、降息等因素影响，经济增速 2.5%左右，高 于潜在增速，产出缺口继续扩张，美联储至多降息一次，不排除出现加息 预期。 通胀是美国选民最关注的议题之一，中期选举之前中美经贸关系将暂 时保持稳定。但是，美国可能采取多项措施打击转口贸易，同时中国和欧 盟等经济体的经贸冲突风险可能增加。 风险提示：财政、货币政策低于预期；"两重""两新"边际效应递减，效 果低于预期；房地产市场止跌回稳难度较大；美国通胀存在大幅上升风险； 地缘政治波动加剧。 邢曙光（分析师） xingshuguang@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280520050003 钟 山（分析师） zhongshan01@cctgsc.com.cn 登记编号：S0280525060002 相关报告 中国政策： 宏观政策强调提质增效，托底经济的同时，不搞大水漫灌、大规模刺 激，为应对未来风险留有余地，确保政策可持续。预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "killing line" has emerged in discussions about the precarious financial situation of many Americans, particularly the middle class, who face severe economic pressures that can lead to financial ruin and homelessness [5][8][30]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The poverty line for a family of four in the U.S. is set at an annual income of $32,150, but a more realistic figure to maintain basic living standards is approximately $136,500, or about 960,000 RMB [11][12]. - A quarter of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, spending nearly all their income on essential expenses [14]. - 37% of Americans cannot cover an unexpected expense of $400, indicating widespread financial vulnerability [15]. Group 2: Homelessness Crisis - The total number of homeless individuals in the U.S. surged by 18% in 2024 compared to the previous year [19]. - Young people under 25 accounted for 27% of the homeless population, with their numbers increasing by 29% [20]. - The number of homeless children rose by 33%, with at least 148,000 minors living in shelters or on the streets [21]. Group 3: K-shaped Economic Recovery - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped" recovery, where the wealthy benefit disproportionately from economic growth, primarily driven by technology and capital returns, while the lower-income groups face stagnation [30][33]. - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth reached 1.57 percentage points in the first half of 2025, surpassing that of private consumption [31]. - The manufacturing sector's value added fell below 10% for the first time in 2024, highlighting a shift away from traditional economic drivers [32]. Group 4: Structural Issues - The labor market is characterized by a "double weakness" in supply and demand, with rising unemployment and job instability for low-income workers due to technological advancements [35]. - The average commercial electricity price in the U.S. has increased by about 30% since 2019, contributing to higher living costs for families [36]. - Economic policies have disproportionately benefited the wealthiest, with the lowest income households potentially losing around $1,600 annually due to tax reforms [38]. Group 5: Policy Challenges - Policymakers face the challenge of balancing capital market prosperity with rising living costs for voters, which could lead to significant economic risks if not managed properly [39]. - The ongoing low-interest-rate environment primarily benefits asset markets, offering limited relief to ordinary families struggling with debt [39]. - The structural imbalance in the economy has led to a situation where a single financial shock can trigger a cascade of negative outcomes for vulnerable households [40].

2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战 ——解构美国系列第十六篇 要点 核心观点： 为什么我们认为特朗普房改将难以提振美国房地产？在 2024 至 2025 年美联储 大幅降息背景下，由于房贷利率降幅有限，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。展望看，随着 2026 年美国中期选举临近，"特朗普 房改"呼之欲出，我们推测大致会沿着降低房贷成本、激活供给市场、降息三条 路径，但考虑到大幅降息难以有效传导至房贷利率，政策端亦受立法、司法等约 束，叠加关税风险溢价和建设周期滞后，房地产供需结构或难以在短期逆转，基 准判断是 2026 年美国房地产维持弱复苏状态。若想要美国地产周期出现明显复 苏，我们测算 5%左右的房贷利率或是美国地产周期的启动指标，若房贷利率降 至合意区间，对应的 10 年期美债利率或在 3.2%-3.3%左右。 在 2024 至 2025 年美联储大幅降息背景下，美国房地产市场并未迎来复苏周期， 仍呈现"供需两弱"状态。 需求端方面，受高房价、高房贷利率及可负担性危机影响，居民购房和按揭需求 持续走低，2025 年新房和成屋销售量低于 ...

"斩杀线"这词最近在网上火出圈了，源头其实是一群在美多年的华人和留学生，他们靠着直播聊天，分享了不少自己在美国的亲身见闻。 有人是做慈善的契机，有人是搞学术研究的需要，总之都实实在在接触到了美国的底层人群，也亲眼目睹了太多美国中产一朝破产后，生活一落千丈的狼 狈惨状。 后来网友们又搬运了一大堆美国中产的吐槽和哭诉，让"斩杀线"对应的那些现实情况，变得越来越具体、越来越扎心。 其实"斩杀线"本来是游戏里的词，意思很简单，就是BOSS的血量降到某个临界值以下，玩家一套连招就能直接把它秒杀。 可放到美国社会里，直接成了普通人的生存红线。 只要你的财务状况、信用评分跌破那个阈值，就会被一连串麻烦连环打击，从正常生活滑向困境，想翻身都难。 01 谁都可能踩到的"生存红线" 根据美国官方划定的四口之家贫困线，是年收入3.215万美元[1]。 但这套标准是1963年那会儿，按食品支出算出来的，早就跟不上现在的物价了，根本反映不了现在房租、医疗费、育儿费有多贵。 投资者迈克尔·格林算过一笔账，现在一个美国四口之家，想维持最基本的生活，有地方住、生病能看上病、孩子有人管，年收入至少得13.65万美元，差 不多合人民币96万元[ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the equity market, highlighting a mixed performance with a focus on domestic demand expansion and structural differentiation in market trends [2][11][13]. Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market experienced high volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.03% and the CSI 300 Index falling by 0.28% during the week of December 15-19, 2025 [2][11]. - The average daily trading volume across the market was 17,465 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - The financial and consumer sectors performed relatively well, while growth sectors lagged behind [11][13]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion - A significant emphasis was placed on expanding domestic demand, as highlighted by President Xi Jinping's article in "Qiushi" magazine, which elevated the strategy to a national level [13]. - Continuous policy support is expected to stimulate consumption, optimize new policy implementations, and address unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [13]. - The potential introduction of national subsidy policies post-New Year is anticipated to further boost consumption [13]. Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.10%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.82%, with most sectors experiencing a pullback due to concerns over rising U.S. Treasury yields and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [14]. - Short-term pressures on the Hong Kong market are expected to persist, but there remains a valuation advantage for Hong Kong stocks if short-term factors dissipate [14]. Group 4: Fund Performance Tracking - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.09% last week, achieving a cumulative excess return of 16.68% since inception [4]. - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 1.02%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.56% since inception [5]. - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index fell by 1.02%, but has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.05% since inception [6].