在美国主流叙事中，美国的国家信用似乎坚如磐石。然而，加州大学洛杉矶分校经济史学教授Sebastian Edwards所著的《美国违约》（American Default）一书，揭开了一段颠覆大众认知的历史： 在20世纪30年代大萧条最严重的时刻，美国政府在时任总统富兰克林·罗斯福的领导下，通过一系列激 进甚至备受争议的手段，单方面废除了所有公共和私人债务合同中的"黄金条款"，实质上构成了大规模 债务违约。 1929年至1932年间，美国陷入了史无前例的经济灾难——大萧条。物价暴跌是这场危机最具破坏性的特 征之一，它触发了"债务—通缩"的恶性循环。新上任的总统罗斯福认为，打破通缩的关键在于实现美元 的"再通胀"，即提升国内物价水平。而最直接的方式，就是让美元与黄金脱钩并大幅贬值。其背后的经 济学逻辑在于：在金本位制度下，国际可贸易商品（如棉花、小麦）虽以各国货币标价，但这些货币的 价值都与黄金挂钩，因此黄金实际上是共同的计价标准。当美国宣布美元对黄金贬值时，意味着同样数 量的黄金要用更多美元才能购买，以美元计价的商品价格也会相应上升，从而带来物价回升。 1991年，为了终结恶性通胀，阿根廷政府采取了一种固定汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation characterized by low inflation and its historical implications, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to stimulate nominal economic growth and stabilize prices [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI has fluctuated around 0% for 27 months, while the PPI has seen a decline of 3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the conditions seen during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [2]. - The sluggish price environment has led to a decline in nominal economic growth, reaching new lows since 2023, which has weakened market expectations and increased financial risks [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests a dual approach to boost nominal economic growth by addressing both supply and demand sides, including incorporating a broad price index into macroeconomic targets and implementing unconventional counter-cyclical policies [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal and monetary policies, particularly through increased fiscal spending and the use of unconventional monetary measures to combat low inflation [5]. - The need for real estate market stabilization is highlighted, advocating for the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stimulate demand and improve market confidence [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article notes that the sluggish performance in real estate investment, combined with tariff impacts, has significantly affected the PPI, particularly through midstream chemical products, which account for over 60% of PPI fluctuations [2]. - It discusses the positive effects of recent regulations aimed at curbing price competition in emerging industries like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, which have helped stabilize prices and alleviate operational pressures on companies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Employment Strategies - To enhance service consumption, the article recommends stabilizing and expanding employment, particularly in sectors with high demand, and improving social security systems to support low-income groups [7]. - It advocates for increased fiscal investment in essential services and consumer subsidies to stimulate sustainable consumption growth [7]. - The article also emphasizes the importance of urbanization strategies that focus on human capital accumulation and consumption quality improvement as key drivers for future economic growth [8].