Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is experiencing its largest increase since 2018, driven by a restructuring of gold pricing logic, transitioning from a commodity to a financial asset safety attribute [1] - The global trust in the US dollar is declining, leading to a significant rise in the opportunity cost of holding gold despite rising interest rates [1] - Central banks have purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, indicating strong demand from central banks, financial institutions, and the public [1] Group 2 - If global central banks increase the proportion of gold in their foreign exchange reserves to 15%, the corresponding demand for gold could reach 5,000 tons, equivalent to one and a half years of global gold supply, which would significantly drive gold prices [1] - In the first half of this year, the demand for gold from the public and global central banks decreased by 20% year-on-year, but financial institutions in Europe and the US are significantly increasing their gold purchases [1] - Financial institutions have recognized that gold has shown characteristics of being insensitive to interest rates by 2025, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold prices as global interest rate cuts progress [1]

格隆汇10月26日｜在2025（第二十七届）中国矿业大会"紫金论坛—变革中的黄金矿业"上，中金公司有 色金属行业首席分析师齐丁称，黄金在今年迎来2018年以来的最大涨幅，其背后是黄金定价逻辑的重 构。他同样认为黄金将迎来一个长牛市。 齐丁认为，金价上涨首先源于全球对美元的信任度下降，这 使得黄金定价逻辑从商品属性转向金融资产安全属性，致使在利率水平上升的情况下，持有黄金的机会 成本大幅上升。以全球央行为代表的主体，在2022年至2024年连续三年实现一千吨以上黄金的购买。 齐丁表示，当前全球黄金市场的购买主力为民间、金融机构和央行三方。据他介绍，若全球央行将外汇 储备中黄金比例提高到15%，对应的黄金需求将达到5000吨，这一规模相当于全球一年半的黄金供应总 量，对金价的驱动潜力巨大。 他进一步表示，今年上半年民间和全球央行的黄金购买需求同比下降 20%，但以欧美金融机构推动的资金正在大量采购黄金。原因在于这些机构发现黄金在2025年已呈现对 利率脱敏的特征。 齐丁认为，随着金融机构对黄金的热衷，以及全球降息进程的推进，黄金价格将持 续走强。 ...