Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term, with the strong rally of coking coal and coke, the cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly. Whether the stabilization and rebound can continue depends on the reduction efforts on the supply side and the incremental policies released [5][8][10] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. **[螺纹钢] (Rebar)** Futures - This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the short - selling main force first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 3046 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.30% [5] Spot - This week, the mainstream rebar prices in major regions started to rise steadily, and overall transactions improved slightly. As of Friday, the national average rebar quotation increased by 4 yuan to 3219 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills was 84.71%, up 0.44% month - on - month and 2.57% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, down 0.39% month - on - month but up 1.46% year - on - year. The average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills was 67.86%, down 0.99% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, down 0.91% month - on - month and 1.8% year - on - year. Rebar weekly output increased by 5.91 tons to 207.07 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5] - **Demand**: This week, both the building materials trading volume and the apparent rebar consumption increased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume increased by 0.44 tons to 10.14 tons, and the apparent rebar consumption increased by 6.26 tons to 226.01 tons. In absolute terms, the apparent rebar consumption remained at a low level in the same period [7] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar started to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 18.94 tons to 622.11 tons. In absolute terms, the current rebar inventory remained at a low level in the same period [8] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, with a premium of 124 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a contraction of 9 yuan from last week. The current rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis will continue to contract in the future [8] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, rebar production cuts are less than expected, and production has started to pick up slightly. The apparent rebar consumption continues to recover slowly, and rebar inventory continues to decline. Overall, short - term cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly, and the continuation of the stabilization and rebound depends on supply - side reduction and incremental policies [8] 2. **[铁矿石] (Iron Ore)** Futures - This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation driven by the short - selling main force first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [8] Spot - This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates started to rise steadily, and overall transactions improved. As of Friday, the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port remained unchanged at 778 yuan/ton; the price of 61.5% PB fines at Tianjin Port increased by 5 yuan to 797 yuan/ton [8] Fundamental - **Supply**: As of the 20th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2825.0 tons, an increase of 94.0 tons month - on - month. The Australian shipments were 1984.5 tons, an increase of 68.2 tons month - on - month, and the shipments from Australia to China were 1729.1 tons, an increase of 144.6 tons month - on - month. Brazilian shipments were 840.5 tons, an increase of 25.8 tons month - on - month. The total arrivals at 45 ports were 2519.4 tons, a decrease of 526.4 tons month - on - month; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1203.2 tons, a decrease of 220.3 tons month - on - month [10] - **Demand**: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 312.65 tons, a decrease of 3.07 tons month - on - month. The weekly average trading volume of iron ore port spot is 100.9 tons, a decrease of 14.5 tons month - on - month. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons from last week but an increase of 4.21 tons year - on - year. The daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 296.46 tons, a decrease of 0.89 tons month - on - month [10] - **Inventory**: As of the 24th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports started to accumulate slightly, currently at 14423.59 tons, an increase of 145.32 tons month - on - month. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9079.19 tons, an increase of 96.47 tons month - on - month [10] - **Basis**: As of Friday, the Newman fines at Rizhao Port, the optimal delivery product, were 822 yuan/ton, with a premium of 51 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, an expansion of 1 yuan from last week. The current iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected that the iron ore basis will have limited room for further expansion and is likely to start contracting [10] Comprehensive Judgment - In the short term, the shipments of imported iron ore have started to pick up slightly, and the expected arrivals next week will decline, which may relieve the port inventory pressure. On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output continues to decline, and the steel mill's daily consumption has decreased slightly. Overall, short - term cost - side support drives the black - chain varieties to stabilize slightly, and the continuation of the stabilization and rebound depends on supply - side reduction and incremental policies [10]