Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of logs remains stable, and log futures are expected to perform strongly. The recommended investment strategy is an 11 - 1 calendar spread [4]. - The far - month log contracts are weakly operating. Currently, no traders are taking up the increased outer - market quotes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The supply factor is bearish [4][25]. - **Demand**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The demand factor is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The inventory factor is neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log 01 contract is between the receiving value and delivery cost, with a reasonable valuation [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is an 11 - 1 calendar spread. The trading strategy is a calendar spread of 11 - 1, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Last week, the log 01 contract was weakly operating, and there was an opportunity for reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 1 contracts. The far - month contracts should be viewed with caution [9]. - **Futures Position**: As of October 24th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 25,074 lots, a week - on - week increase of 16.9%. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,767 lots, a week - on - week increase of 31.7% [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 17th, 2025, the spot prices of Shandong radiation pine remained stable, and the prices of Jiangsu radiation pine also remained unchanged [16]. Part Three: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. In September 2025, the import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4993 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 14.79% and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 13.502 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% [21]. - **New Zealand Shipment**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The North American timber inventory remained unchanged, and the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provinces, the inventory in Shandong ports decreased by 2.43%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.73% [33]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong ports decreased by 0.58%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 35.20% [37]. - **Timber Square**: As of October 24th, 2025, the timber square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [40].