商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 12 日 原木：低位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 期货研究 | 价格指标 项目 2025/12/11 2025/12/10 | 2025/12/9 | 2025/12/8 | 2025/12/5 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2601合约(收盘价) 746 756 | 766. 5 | 769.5 | 765. 5 | -1. 3% | -2.5% | | 2601合约(成交量) 7123 11886 | 3094 | 5206 | 2948 | -40. 1% | 142% | | 2601合约 (持仓量) 14509 13070 | 13846 | 14469 | 15277 | 11.0% | -5% | | 2603合约(收盘价) 769 776.5 | 778.5 | 779 | 778. 5 | -1.0% | —1% | | 盘面 2603合约(成交量) 1581 2599 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation, and the downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, while the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery on the demand side needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Fundamental Analysis - In November, New Zealand's timber shipment volume decreased seasonally compared to October, and this week's direct shipment volume to China decreased by 108,000 cubic meters. However, the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 domestic ports increased by 80% to 391,000 cubic meters, and later arrivals will be concentrated in Shandong. In addition, Jiangsu ports have tightened inspections on imported Japanese cryptomeria, and it is expected that the supply of Japanese cryptomeria will be tightened. The overall demand is weak, with the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports decreasing by 4.81% week - on - week. Only some regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong saw an increase in outbound volume. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased slightly, and there was no obvious boost in demand for both housing construction and non - housing construction projects. The inventory continued the slight destocking trend, with the total inventory at 2.97 million cubic meters (a 1.98% week - on - week decrease). The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber decreased, while the inventory of spruce/fir remained flat, and the overall inventory pressure was moderately relieved [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6] Core Logic Analysis - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation. The radiata pine price in Rizhao, Shandong is firm at 750 yuan per cubic meter, while the price in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 740 yuan per cubic meter. The downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In December, the foreign market price decreased by 2% month - on - month, and the stronger RMB increased the purchasing power of traders, partially offsetting the cost pressure on the supply side. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, with Russia's forestry output potentially decreasing by 20% - 30% and Canadian enterprises reducing production temporarily. Meanwhile, the reforestation in countries such as China will optimize the long - term supply structure. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery [5] Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 ships compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 48%. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters of logs left the New Zealand ports for shipment, a decrease of 8 ships and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. In November, the monthly shipment volume decreased by 4 ships compared to October, showing seasonal characteristics but with a limited decline [13] Log Inventory - As of November 28th, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.50%. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week. By province, as of November 28th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,986,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 850,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 52,478 cubic meters, an increase of 21,511 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16] Log Demand - As of November 28th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 30,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 5,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.32%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,200 cubic meters, an increase of 2,600 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 11.02%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 2,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.24%. As of December 2nd, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.49%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.59%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 54.02%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [20] Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter, or 5.06%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter compared to last week, or 1.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan per cubic meter, or 7.50%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter, or 9.26% [24] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and the same in the Jiangsu market. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,850 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [28] Import Log Costs - As of the time of publication, the December foreign market price has moved down compared to the November quotation, with the quotation range being 110 - 116. Some foreign merchants have continuously reduced prices for multiple rounds, and traders tend to expect the foreign market price to be in the 112 - 113 range [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the log market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory de - stocking slow and the fundamentals remaining loose. The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, but its valuation repair is restricted by the weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upside potential [5][6][39] - The report recommends three investment strategies: for single - side trading, go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities; for arbitrage, focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern. New Zealand's September shipment was 1.766 million cubic meters (+6%), and the first four - week departure in October was 1.34 million cubic meters, still 8% higher year - on - year. The full - month estimate was 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a new high for the year. The inventory of 13 domestic ports first increased and then decreased, reaching 2.94 million cubic meters at the end of the month, 22% higher year - on - year. The demand side was generally "lackluster in the peak season." The average daily port delivery was 61,600 cubic meters, a slight 1.4% month - on - month decrease and 11% year - on - year decrease. The real estate capital availability rate hovered at 59.6%, and the cumulative new housing starts were - 21%. The United States imposed a 10% - 25% tariff on softwood and cabinets starting from October 14, causing export orders in the Yangtze River Delta to decline [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, with the futures price significantly lower than the Shandong warehouse receipt cost and also in an inverted relationship with the duty - paid cost calculated from the November New Zealand radiata pine CFR quote. However, the valuation repair is restricted by the fundamentals, as port inventory remains high, supply pressure may continue to be released in November, and the demand side is lackluster in the peak season, with the average daily delivery volume declining year - on - year [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities. Arbitrage: Focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Options: Sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiata pine: The log market was "warm externally and cold internally," with prices showing a trend of "initially stable and then secretly decreasing." The domestic and imported radiata pine prices moved basically in sync, while the sawn timber prices declined continuously due to weak terminal demand. The cost of imports increased, leading to a sharp drop in domestic ship - booking willingness and a 40% month - on - month decrease in new orders at the end of October [11][12] - Spruce/fir: In October, the spruce - fir market was characterized by "external price concessions, rising spot prices, and stable sawn timber prices." The European suppliers lowered their quotes, but the depreciation of the RMB against the euro offset most of the decline. The spot prices rose due to the shortage of large - diameter timber at ports, and the sawn timber prices remained stable, with processing profits being better than those of radiata pine [13][16] 3.2.2 Futures Market Review - As of October 31, 2025, the main log futures contract LG2601 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a significant downward shift in the price center compared to the beginning of the month. It was mainly influenced by the reversal of policy expectations, the weak supply - demand pattern, and market sentiment changes [20] 3.2.3 Supply Increase and High Inventory - Overseas shipment: The New Zealand log departure volume remained high in October, but the growth rate slowed down marginally. The export was mainly targeted at China, accounting for over 75%, and the shipping cost fluctuations also affected the shipment rhythm [25] - Domestic arrival: The New Zealand log arrival volume in October showed a "low - then - high" pulsed rhythm. The total arrival volume in October was expected to reach 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a 20% increase from September, a new high for the year. The mismatch between high arrival and weak demand intensified the port inventory pressure [26] - Inventory change: The domestic log inventory in October showed a trend of "first accumulating and then decreasing," with the end - of - month total still higher than that at the end of September. Although there was marginal de - stocking in the middle and late October, the total inventory was still over 20% higher than the previous year, and the regional structure imbalance was still prominent [29] 3.2.4 Weak Real Estate, Low Delivery, and Weak Demand - Real estate demand: In October, the commercial housing transaction area declined month - on - month, and the new housing start - up willingness of real estate enterprises remained at a low level. The capital availability rate of construction sites was low, and the wood square orders decreased by about 15% year - on - year. The real estate demand for logs was basically flat month - on - month and decreased by 20% year - on - year, with limited seasonal recovery before the end of the year [33] - Log delivery volume: The port delivery volume showed a trend of "rising first and then falling." The average daily delivery volume in October was 61,600 cubic meters, lower than the September average and 11% lower year - on - year. The "high arrival + low delivery" situation continued, and the port de - stocking speed was much slower than in previous years [35] - Other demand and policy changes: The demand for furniture and packaging materials both weakened. The United States imposed tariffs on cabinets and softwood logs, causing a 20% - 30% decline in export orders in the Yangtze River Delta. The domestic "trade - in" subsidy had a concentrated release in September, and the furniture retail sales increased year - on - year but had limited incremental demand for logs. Policy factors such as US tariffs and EU anti - dumping measures suppressed external demand, while domestic fiscal support for forest tending was beneficial for long - term supply but had no short - term demand increase [36] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern in October, and the demand side was "lackluster in the peak season." The supply - demand imbalance led to slow inventory de - stocking. The LG2601 contract is undervalued relative to cost, but the weak supply - demand pattern restricts its upside potential. The recommended strategies are the same as those in the preface summary [39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the log spot market this week showed a weakly stable pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with prices under pressure." The cost of imported logs has increased, providing rigid support to the futures market, but the spot market is weakening, and the basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The demand is limited, and the impact of new US tariffs on export orders may be concentrated in early November. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The log spot market fundamentals are in a weakly stable pattern. The arrival volume at ports increased by 5% week - on - week to 438,000 cubic meters, 13 - port inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.92 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 10.3% to 63,200 cubic meters. The main port price of radiata pine remained flat at 760 - 780 yuan/cubic meter, knot - free wood dropped by 20 yuan/cubic meter, and spruce rose by 30 yuan due to shortage. The November overseas offer increased by 5 dollars to 120 dollars [6] - **Logic Analysis**: In November, the import cost of New Zealand radiata pine increased by about 40 yuan/cubic meter, supporting the futures market. However, the spot price of knot - free wood has fallen, and the market expects the general wood to follow suit. The basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still high, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains. The new US tariffs may impact export orders in November, and the demand is limited. For the 2501 contract, if the spot price falls below 750 yuan, the seller's hedging window will open [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Cost: The import cost of New Zealand radiata pine in November has increased, providing support to the futures market, but the spot price is weakening, and the basis is expected to change [6] - Inventory: The 13 - port inventory is still at a high level, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains after the end of the low - price sales in Jiangsu [6] - Demand: The new US tariffs may impact export orders, and the consumption intensity is limited due to the combination of "improved funds + reduced construction starts" in housing and non - housing projects [6] - Delivery: For the 2501 contract, the cost of registered warehouse receipts is around 810 - 820 yuan/cubic meter, and the futures price is at a premium. If the spot price falls, the seller's hedging window will open [6] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: From October 18 - 24, 2025, 11 ships with 410,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week. 8 ships with 310,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters. From October 20 - 26, 2025, 12 ships with about 438,000 cubic meters of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters week - on - week [17] - **Log Inventory**: As of October 17, the total log inventory in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American log inventory remained unchanged at 90,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [20] - **Log Demand**: As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters week - on - week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased, but the number of projects decreased. The capital improvement was concentrated in the southwest and east regions and large - scale central enterprises [25] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port remained at 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce in Rizhao Port rose by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan/cubic meter due to shortage [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber in Shandong was 1,280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [38] - **Import Log Costs**: In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 1 dollar to 115 dollars/cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce decreased by 3 euros to 125 euros/cubic meter. Some foreign merchants reported the November CFR price of New Zealand radiata pine at 120 dollars/cubic meter, an increase from October [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of logs remains stable, and log futures are expected to perform strongly. The recommended investment strategy is an 11 - 1 calendar spread [4]. - The far - month log contracts are weakly operating. Currently, no traders are taking up the increased outer - market quotes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for far - month contracts [9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The supply factor is bearish [4][25]. - **Demand**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The demand factor is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The inventory factor is neutral [4]. - **Valuation**: The current log 01 contract is between the receiving value and delivery cost, with a reasonable valuation [4]. - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is an 11 - 1 calendar spread. The trading strategy is a calendar spread of 11 - 1, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: Last week, the log 01 contract was weakly operating, and there was an opportunity for reverse arbitrage between the 11 - 1 contracts. The far - month contracts should be viewed with caution [9]. - **Futures Position**: As of October 24th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 25,074 lots, a week - on - week increase of 16.9%. The position of the main log futures contract 2601 was 18,767 lots, a week - on - week increase of 31.7% [11]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 17th, 2025, the spot prices of Shandong radiation pine remained stable, and the prices of Jiangsu radiation pine also remained unchanged [16]. Part Three: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 2.0013 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.37%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume was about 18.016 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.14%. In September 2025, the import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4993 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 14.79% and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. From January to September 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 13.502 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% [21]. - **New Zealand Shipment**: In September 2025, the estimated log shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, South Korea, and India was 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%. The estimated number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.92 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The North American timber inventory remained unchanged, and the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provinces, the inventory in Shandong ports decreased by 2.43%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 0.73% [33]. - **Outbound Volume**: From October 13th to October 19th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 63,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.30%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong ports decreased by 0.58%, and that in Jiangsu ports increased by 35.20% [37]. - **Timber Square**: As of October 24th, 2025, the timber square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [40].

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Cost - side factors like the decline in the outer - market price and RMB appreciation provide support, but weak demand due to tight housing construction funds and low出库量 limits the rebound space. The increase in New Zealand's arrival volume may lead to a slight accumulation of inventory, with regional differentiation continuing [6]. - Medium - term: New Zealand's winter production reduction (expected decline in shipments from September to November) may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on the implementation of infrastructure projects and the effectiveness of real - estate policies. If housing construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, and prices will face pressure [6]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Price: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a flat week - on - week change; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A log in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also with a flat week - on - week change [6]. - Supply: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 23.2%; the total inventory of coniferous logs is 2.94 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01% [6]. - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29% [6]. - Import cost: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2% [6]. Strategies - Single - side: Considering low inventory, cost support, but weak demand, the market is expected to stabilize next week. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can make a small - scale long - position layout [7]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipments: In August 2025, the number of departing vessels was about 44, a month - on - month decrease of 3, and the total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. Among them, 35 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [17]. - From September 8th to September 14th, 2025, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 6 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 120%; the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, an increase of 232,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 136% [17]. Log Inventory - By material: As of September 5th, the total inventory of domestic logs by material is 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05%; the North American log inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.00% [21]. - By province: As of September 5th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,813,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 915,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 85,717 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,401 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei is 21,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong is 105,000 cubic meters, an increase of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi is 0 [21]. Log Demand - As of September 5th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 33,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 21,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85% [26]. - As of September 9th, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [26]. Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25% [34]. - Jiangsu: This week, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94% [34]. - Shandong: This week, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and an increase of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to last year, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [34]. Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is also 1260 yuan/cubic meter [39]. - Spruce/white pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1800 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [39]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month [45]. - Spruce outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of logs remained stable. In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects. The log futures market showed a volatile pattern this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in trading strategies [5][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Log and wood - square spot prices: The prices of various types of logs and wood - squares in different ports were stable, with most showing 0.00% daily and weekly changes. Only the white pine wood - square in Rizhao had a 2.86% daily and weekly increase [3] - Futures data: For log futures contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, the closing price of LG2509 decreased by 2.0, the trading volume decreased by 4070, and the open interest decreased by 2361 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - Spot price: Log spot prices remained stable. From August 18th - 24th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week. From August 25th - 31st, 13 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, a 63% increase compared to the previous week. The ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China decreased by 16.67% year - on - year [5][8] - Futures price: The November contract fluctuated upwards, with a closing price of 823 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 3 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [9] - Logic analysis: In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects [10] - Strategies: For unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures related to log prices, including the prices of different types of logs and wood - squares in different ports, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and other data [15][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log industry is "Wide - range Fluctuation" [1] 2. Core View - There is no explicit core view provided in the report, but it presents comprehensive data on log fundamentals and relevant macro and industry news 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contract Data**: - For the 2509 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 833, with a daily increase of 4.5% and a weekly increase of 6.0%. The trading volume was 68470, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 243%. The open interest was 34390, a daily increase of 40.7% [2] - For the 2511 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 829.5, with a daily increase of 4.3%. The trading volume was 2411, a daily increase of 236.3% and a weekly increase of 188%. The open interest was 4124, a daily increase of 1.2% and a weekly increase of 14% [2] - For the 2601 contract, on July 17, the closing price was 832, with a daily increase of 4.1%. The trading volume was 1114, a daily increase of 150.3% and a weekly increase of 325%. The open interest was 1620, a daily increase of 34.4% and a weekly increase of 94% [2] - **Basis Data**: - The basis of "spot - 2509" on July 17 was - 93, with a daily increase of 63.2% and a weekly increase of 102% - The basis of "2509 - 2511" on July 17 was 3.5, with a daily increase of 133.3% and a weekly increase of 133% [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Most of the spot prices of various types of logs and wood squares in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged on July 17, with a daily and weekly increase of 0.0%. Only a few varieties had small price changes, such as the 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Jiangsu market, with a weekly decrease of 1.4% [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From July 14 to 15, the Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing, and General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4]