2026 年 3 月 3 日 原木：预期现实博弈，小幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/3/2 2026/2/27 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2605合约（收盘价） 800 798.5 | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 0.2% | 1.4% | | 2605合约（成交量） 3742 3161 | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 18.4% | 55% | | 2605合约（持仓量） 8416 7605 | 7298 | 7108 | 5631 | 10.7% | 49% | | 2607合约（收盘价） 802.5 800.5 | 799 | 801.5 | 794.5 | 0.2% | 1% | | 盘面 2607合约（成交量） 80 134 | 107 | 168 | 56 | -40.3% | 43% | | 2 ...

【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 2026 年 2 月 27 日 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 792 | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | -0.7% | 1.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 832 | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | -82.6% | -78% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 800 | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | -44.4% | -75% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 787 | 785 | -0.3% | 1% | | 盘面 | 2605合约（成交量） | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 1560 | 2190 | -53.6% | ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/11 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 797.5 | 788.5 | 787.5 | 779.5 | 777 | 1.1% | 2.6% | | | 2603合约（成交量） | 4795 | 1913 | 2277 | 3795 | 2566 | 150.7% | 87% | | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 1439 | 2230 | 2449 | 3142 | 3972 | -35.5% | -64% | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 796 | 789 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 期货研究 商 品 研 究 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/11 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/13 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/10 | 2026/2/9 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 777 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 787.5 | 779.5 | 773.5 | 775 | 1.0% | 1.6% | | 2566 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 2277 | 3795 | 4155 | 7702 | -40.0% | -70% | | 3972 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 2449 | 3142 | 4525 | 5279 | -22.1% | -54% | | 787.5 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 787 | 785 | 789.5 | 785.5 | 0.3% | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a chemical research report on log market, specifically the Log Daily Report dated February 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Log prices (daily) and wood square prices (daily) for different types of logs and wood squares at various ports are presented, with all prices showing 0.00% day - on - day and week - on - week changes [2] - Futures volume and price data for LG2603, LG2605, and LG2607 contracts are provided, including closing prices, changes, and volume/position changes [2] Group 3: Market Review - On February 10, the log spot market was stable. Prices of different grades of radiata pine logs in Rizhao remained unchanged [4] - The closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 777 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous trading day [5] Group 4: Important Information - In January 2026, 74 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a month - on - month decrease of 14.94%. The total arrival volume was about 166.81 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%. Among them, 45 ships were from New Zealand, with an arrival volume of about 147.45 million cubic meters, accounting for 88% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.69% [7] - From February 2 to February 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 5.15 million cubic meters, a 16.53% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 3.28 million cubic meters, a 15.68% decrease, and that at Jiangsu ports was 1.29 million cubic meters, an 18.87% decrease [7] Group 5: Logic Analysis - Supply pressure is increasing marginally; demand is dragged down by the Spring Festival off - season, with the average daily outbound volume decreasing by 16.53% month - on - month. The foreign market price in February increased by 3 - 5 US dollars, raising the procurement cost. The increase in supply and weak demand will suppress prices in the short term, but the rising cost forms a bottom support. Also, the low inventory buffers the supply shock. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the post - festival demand resumption rhythm needs to be monitored [7] Group 6: Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - For arbitrage, take profit on the 3 - 5 reverse spread [8] - For options, wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing log and wood square prices, import CFR prices, port log inventory, and other related data [11][13][14]

【基本面跟踪】 原木：需求预期不佳，价格下跌 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 2026 年 2 月 10 日 原木基本面数据 | 2026/2/4 | 价格指标 | 项 目 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 2026/2/3 | 2026/2/2 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 807.5 | | 2603合约（收盘价） | 784 | 802 | 801 | 795 | -2.2% | -1.4% | | 8544 | | 2603合约（成交量） | 9069 | 6656 | 6731 | 11027 | 36.3% | -18% | | 9329 | | 2603合约（持仓量） | 6990 | 8922 | 8902 | 9071 | -21.7% | -23% | | 802 | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 788 | 797.5 | 802 | 796 | -1.2% | -1% | | 2382 | 盘面 | 26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, China's log supply and demand showed a differentiated pattern. The supply was affected by natural disasters in New Zealand, with a 5% week - on - week decrease in the arrival volume at 13 ports in China. The demand was limited due to the approaching holiday of processing plants and the decline in the capital availability rate of construction projects. The inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, and the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%. The log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. It is expected that the log price will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, and there will be no significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: New Zealand's heavy rain in the North Island caused landslides, suspending logging around Tauranga Port and disrupting shipments. The arrival volume at 13 ports in China decreased by 5% week - on - week, and there was a structural shortage of 6 - meter logs at Jiangsu Taicang Port [7]. - **Demand**: Some processing plants have shut down, and most will have holidays from late January to early February. Although the national average daily outbound volume increased by 7.13%, the capital availability rate of construction sites decreased week - on - week, with both housing construction and non - housing construction projects seeing a decline, resulting in limited demand support [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%, and the inventories at Shandong and Jiangsu ports decreased. Only the inventory of North American logs increased slightly, showing significant regional supply - demand structural differences [7]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - This week, the log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. The price increase in Jiangsu was mainly due to low arrivals, structural shortages, and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The stable price in Shandong was because of stable supply and lack of incremental demand. The January FOB price remained at $110, while the ocean freight increased, and there was an expectation of a price increase in the February FOB price. The downstream wood products' prices showed a mixed trend. In the short term, the valuation in Jiangsu was supported by tight supply, but the demand would be under pressure as processing plants approached holidays. The valuation in Shandong was constrained by the balance of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week without significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3.1.3 Strategies - **Unilateral**: The log price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Investors are advised to go long based on the previous low [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The near - month contracts are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the natural disaster in New Zealand. Investors should pay attention to the log 03 - 05 spread [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided with additional content beyond what's in the comprehensive analysis section 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - From November to December, the volume of logs shipped to China increased from 1452,000 cubic meters to 1521,000 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the number of ships increased from 49 to 55, an increase of 6 [17]. - From January 17 - 23, 2026, a total of 6 ships with 240,000 cubic meters of logs left 12 ports in New Zealand, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, 4 ships with 170,000 cubic meters were shipped directly to China, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 80,000 cubic meters [18]. - Due to heavy rain in New Zealand's North Island, logging around Tauranga Port was suspended, and the shipping had not returned to normal, with some ships delayed. From January 19 - 25, 2026, 11 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, the same as last week, and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 cubic meters and 5% [19]. 3.3.2 Log Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.57 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 4.46%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 5.24%. The North American log inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters and 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 cubic meters and 7.69% [22]. - As of January 16, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 89,795 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,513 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 71,000 cubic meters, an increase of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22]. 3.3.3 Log Demand - As of January 16, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4100 cubic meters and 7.13%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 32,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4500 cubic meters and 16.13%. The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 700 cubic meters and 2.98% [26]. - As of January 20, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84 percentage points. The regions with a decrease in capital availability were mainly in East China [26]. 3.3.4 Log Prices - **Radiation Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan per cubic meter and 8.64%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 770 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter and 2.67%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter and 4.94%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1150 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter and 0.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter and 9.52% [33]. - **Downstream Wood Product Prices**: Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 radiation pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1200 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1260 yuan per cubic meter. Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1750 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1680 yuan per cubic meter [36]. 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - As of January 5, 2026, the FOB (CFR) price range of New Zealand radiation pine logs in January was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log market is showing a slight upward trend, with the trend strength of logs being rated as "1" (indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment) [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts (2603, 2605, 2607) have shown different degrees of change. For example, the 2603 contract's closing price increased by 1.7% daily and 2.8% weekly, and its trading volume soared by 56.5% daily and 205% weekly [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different futures contracts (such as 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) have also changed, and the spreads between spot and futures have increased significantly, with the spot - 2603 spread rising by 28.9% daily and 61% weekly [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The prices of various types of logs and wood squares in the Shandong and Jiangsu markets are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce 20 + in the Jiangsu market decreased by 0.9% daily and weekly, while the price of 3 - meter radiation pine wood squares in the Zhenjiang market increased by 2.4% weekly [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's industrial enterprise profits in December increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual growth was 0.6% [3]. - Many real estate developers are no longer required to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled developers need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratios regularly [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of logs is 1, with the range of values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].