Core Viewpoint - Cloudwalk, a robotics service AI technology company, is set to launch its IPO on October 16, 2025, as the first listing under the new 18C special technology policy, with a pricing range of HKD 95.60 per share and a fundraising target between HKD 660 million to HKD 760 million, corresponding to a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion to HKD 6.67 billion. Despite the positive listing momentum, the company faces significant underlying risks that warrant investor caution [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Cloudwalk's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 240 million (approximately HKD 270 million), slightly exceeding the minimum requirement of RMB 250 million for the past fiscal year. However, revenue has shown volatility, with figures of RMB 160 million, RMB 150 million, and RMB 240 million for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively. The first five months of 2025 saw a 19% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 90 million, but the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [4][5]. - The company's gross margin has declined by 3.1 percentage points to 39.5% in the first five months of 2025, with losses expanding by 41% to RMB 120 million during the same period. This financial deterioration raises concerns about market confidence in its profitability [4][5]. Investment Structure - Unlike previous IPOs under the 18C policy, Cloudwalk has not secured cornerstone investors, which raises concerns about potential share price declines post-listing. Historical data indicates that IPOs without cornerstone investors have a 57% chance of falling below their listing price on the first day and a 71% chance of being below their listing price since then [2][4]. R&D Investment - Cloudwalk's R&D expenditure for 2024 is projected at RMB 57.39 million, accounting for only 23.4% of its revenue, a significant drop from 47.8% in 2023. This reduction in investment raises questions about the company's ability to maintain its technological edge in the robotics sector [7][8]. Market Valuation - The company's IPO valuation of approximately HKD 6.57 billion to HKD 6.67 billion represents a nearly 50% increase from its post-D round valuation of RMB 4.1 billion at the end of 2021. However, this valuation is the lowest among the four companies listed under the 18C policy, indicating a lack of market confidence in its growth potential [8][9]. Summary of Risks - The combination of no cornerstone investors, deteriorating financial metrics, tight cash flow, insufficient R&D investment, and a low market valuation collectively diminish Cloudwalk's investment appeal. Investors are advised to critically assess the company's long-term operational capabilities and inherent risks beyond the initial allure of being the first listing under the 18C reform [2][4][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant shift in the Hong Kong stock market regarding the 18C specialized technology companies, with a notable decline in IPO activity and increasing challenges for these companies to commercialize successfully [1][9][11] - In 2024, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange implemented reforms that lowered the minimum market capitalization requirements for 18C companies, with commercialized companies' threshold reduced from HKD 60 billion to HKD 40 billion, and non-commercialized companies from HKD 100 billion to HKD 80 billion [1][9] - Despite the lowered thresholds, the market has seen no successful IPOs for 18C companies in 2025, with 12 companies having submitted applications but facing significant hurdles in the current market environment [9][11] Group 2 - Three listed 18C companies have engaged in active fundraising through secondary offerings, with Crystal Technology raising a total of HKD 32.2 billion, significantly exceeding its IPO fundraising scale [4] - Black Sesame Intelligence has experienced a 31% decline in stock price since its IPO, despite a positive earnings forecast, indicating a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [6] - Yujiang, the smallest company by market capitalization at IPO, has seen its stock price increase by 188%, yet its financial performance remains weak, raising concerns about its sustainability as a specialized technology firm [7][11] Group 3 - The financial performance of the listed 18C companies shows a disparity between revenue growth and profitability, with many companies struggling to maintain a balance between innovation and short-term financial results [12] - Research and development expenditures among the companies vary significantly, with Crystal Technology and Black Sesame Intelligence investing heavily compared to Yujiang, which has reduced its R&D spending [8][12] - The overall market sentiment towards 18C companies remains cautious, as evidenced by the lack of successful IPOs and the challenges faced by companies in meeting both market expectations and regulatory requirements [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant shift in the IPO landscape for specialized technology companies, particularly those in AI, semiconductors, and autonomous driving, with no successful IPOs for 18C companies in 2025 despite previous enthusiasm in 2024 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, 18C specialized technology companies were highly sought after, but by 2025, the market has not seen any completed IPOs among the 12 companies that have submitted applications [1][9]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange implemented reforms on September 1, 2024, lowering the minimum market capitalization requirements for specialized technology companies, with commercialized companies' thresholds reduced from HKD 60 billion to HKD 40 billion [1][9]. Group 2: Company Performance - Three listed 18C companies have shown varied performance, with Crystal Technology Holdings experiencing a 93% increase since its IPO, while Black Sesame Intelligence has seen a 31% decline [2][6]. - Crystal Technology raised a total of HKD 32.2 billion through two rounds of financing, significantly exceeding its IPO fundraising [4]. - Black Sesame's performance has been hindered by a lack of clarity in its earnings report, leading to a drop in stock price post-IPO [6]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - Crystal Technology's R&D spending has been substantial, with 2024 expenditures at HKD 4.18 billion, representing 157% of its revenue [8]. - In contrast, the R&D spending of other companies like Chengdian is significantly lower, raising concerns about their innovation capabilities [8]. - The financial outlook for companies like Xi Di Zhijia shows a revenue increase of 207% but a widening loss, raising market skepticism about its sustainability [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the lowered thresholds for IPOs, many companies still face challenges due to weak fundamentals and unclear commercialization paths [11]. - The ongoing regulatory scrutiny and market conditions may further complicate the IPO process for the remaining 12 companies [12].