Core Viewpoint - China has initiated reciprocal measures against the US 301 investigation, aiming to correct US actions and maintain the competitiveness of its shipbuilding industry [1][2]. Group 1: Reciprocal Measures - The US 301 investigation, effective from October 14, 2025, imposes special port fees on Chinese vessels docking at US ports. In response, China will impose similar fees on US vessels docking at Chinese ports, set at 400 RMB per net ton, slightly higher than the US fee of 50 USD per net ton, with annual increases over the next three years [1][2]. - The reciprocal measures are designed to promote fair competition in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets, encouraging long-term confidence among Chinese trade shipowners in building vessels in China [2]. Group 2: Impact on Shipping Costs - The US is a major importer in the shipping industry, and the reciprocal measures will directly affect US shipping companies, including Matson Navigation and others with investments in Chinese shipping firms. Current market share estimates indicate that companies like COSCO and Matson hold about 25% of the Asia-US route [2]. - Although there may be short-term disruptions, it is expected that the overall industry costs will not rise significantly due to these measures, as the Chinese Ministry of Transport has initiated investigations that may lead to compensatory measures to alleviate pressure on Chinese shipping companies [2]. Group 3: Effects on Oil and Bulk Shipping - The reciprocal measures will extend to oil and bulk shipping, potentially leading to a reduction in effective shipping capacity. Approximately 15% of oil tankers and 4% of bulk carriers are owned or operated by US-listed companies, which may face increased costs due to the new fees [3]. - For instance, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) docking at a Chinese port would incur a special port fee of 42 million RMB, translating to an increase of nearly 3 USD per barrel in shipping costs, with daily earnings for routes from the Middle East to China potentially rising by over 130,000 USD [3]. - The outlook for oil shipping remains positive, with expectations of high freight rates driven by steady demand and rigid supply, suggesting that the market may perform better than anticipated [3].